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Where are we headed?

Learn about the population trends and changes in North Carolina, including growth rates, educational attainment, aging population, diversity, and urban vs. rural counties. Explore how these factors will shape the future of the state.

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Where are we headed?

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  1. Where are we headed? Population Change in North Carolina Summer Educational Leadership ConferenceJune 25, 2019 Jessica StanfordCarolina Demography

  2. About Carolina Demography We help people throughout our state answer the question: Where is North Carolina heading? Located within the Carolina Population Center at UNC-Chapel Hill, we use population-level data and other available research to provide context and perspective to people working to shape North Carolina’s future.

  3. How are we changing? How fast is North Carolina growing? What drives educational attainment in our state? At what rate is our population aging? Where can we predict our population to go from here? To what extent are we becoming more diverse?

  4. Urban counties vs. rural counties Let’s define them.

  5. NC counties located within metropolitan statistical areas Counties centered around at least one urban area with a population of at least 50K Virginia Beach-Norfolk- Newport News Burlington Winston-Salem Durham-Chapel Hill Greensboro-High Point Rocky Mount Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton Raleigh Asheville Greenville Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia Goldsboro New Bern Fayetteville Jacksonville Wilmington Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  6. NC counties located within micropolitan statistical areas Counties centered around at least one urban area with a population of at least 10K but less than 50K Elizabeth City Henderson Mount Airy Roanoke Rapids Oxford North Wilkesboro Boone Kill Devil Hills Pinehurst-Southern Pines Washington Sanford Wilson Marion Brevard Forest City Dunn Shelby Kinston Albemarle Cullowhee Morehead City Rockingham Lumberton Laurinburg Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  7. Rural NC counties fall outside of either metro- or micropolitan areas Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  8. Population growth

  9. North Carolina’s Total Population, 1990-2035 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, NC OSBM

  10. North Carolina’s Total Population, 1990-2035 10.4M in 2018 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, NC OSBM

  11. North Carolina’s Total Population, 1990-2035 10.4M in 2018 88% of population growth was inurban counties, 1990-2018 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, NC OSBM

  12. North Carolina’s Total Population, 1990-2035 10.4M in 2018 88% of population growth was inurban counties, 1990-2018 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, NC OSBM

  13. Aging

  14. Urban NC counties generally show smaller shares of 65+, rural counties show larger shares Percentage of population aged 65 and over by county, 2017 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  15. Urban NC counties generally show smaller shares of 65+, rural counties show larger shares Percentage of population aged 65 and over by county, 2017 Brunswick Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  16. Rural counties tend to have smaller shares of children under 18, though some outliers exist Percentage of population aged 18 and under by county, 2017 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  17. Rural counties tend to have smaller shares of children under 18, though some outliers exist Percentage of population aged 18 and under by county, 2017 Sampson Duplin Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  18. Racial/ethnic composition

  19. North Carolina’s population over three-fourths White in 1990

  20. Rapid growth in new immigrant populations partly due to very small population size Over 120% growth in the Asian population from 1990-2000. Nearly 400% growth in the Hispanic population.

  21. Hispanic population growth slows after reaching majority native-born

  22. Asian and multi-racial now fastest-growing demographic groups M-R: 227KH: 962KA: 293K AI:111K

  23. Differences in age structure has resulted in much more diverse younger populationRacial/ethnic distribution, NC adults (20+) and school-age population (0-19), 2017 Source: 2017 American Community Survey (IPUMS)

  24. Educational attainment

  25. 1.3 millionmore individuals with an associate degree or higher from 1990 to 2017 Source: American Community Survey 2017 estimates

  26. Of those with an AA+ degree… 35% were born in North Carolina Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  27. Of those with an AA+ degree… 35% 50% were born in North Carolina were born in another state or country Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  28. In nearly all rural counties, less than 30% of adults over 25 have any postsecondary degree Share of population with an associate degree or higher by county, 2017 Source: 2017 American Community Survey

  29. Fewer than 3 in 5 households in many rural counties have access to an internet subscription Share of NC households with an internet subscription by county, 2017

  30. Population projections

  31. Almost all future NC growth projected to occur in urban areas Projected share of 2010-2035 state population growth for select North Carolina metropolitan areas Data Source: NC OSBM

  32. Two-thirds of NC growth projected to occur Triangle or Charlotte • Projected share of 2010-2035 state population growth for select North Carolina metropolitan areas Data Source: NC OSBM

  33. By 2035, more than 1 in 5 NC residents will be 65 or olderProjected population share 65+, NC vs. US, 2010-2035 Data Source: NC OSBM, U.S. Census Bureau

  34. Kindergarten-age population expected to decline typically in rural counties Projected population growth of children aged 4-6 by county, 2017-2030

  35. How is North Carolina changing? 1M to be added each decade through 2035 Attainment mostly attributed by in-migrants Rapid aging, esp. in rural counties Slower but consistent growth, increased diversity and aging Diversity fastest among Asian and Multi-Racial populations

  36. What questions do you have about your community? demography@unc.edu (919) 962-6148 Twitter: @ncdemography Web: demography.cpc.unc.edu

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