Realist Theory of Int’l Politics

1. Realist Theory of Int’l Politics On Power: Elements of National Power and the Four Distinctions of Power

2. Realism • Key topics for this lecture: • Background to Balance of Power Theory • Elements of National Power • Political Power • Examination of “Power” and “Force”

3. Balance of Power • In his text, Politics Among Nations, Morgenthau defined several aspects of polarity and how states would balance with each other in various power-based arrangements. • Stressed the virtues of the classical, multipolar, balance of power system and saw the bipolar rivalry between the US and the USSR as especially dangerous

4. GREAT POWERS MIDDLE POWERS SMALL POWERS GREAT POWERS MIDDLE POWERS SMALL POWERS GREAT POWERS MIDDLE POWERS SMALL POWERS DEFINING POLARITY UNIPOLAR WORLD BIPOLAR WORLD MULTIPOLAR WORLD

5. 10 3 10 3 2 2 5 5 5 5 5 5 BALANCE OF POWERTHE BILLIARD BALL EXAMPLE Rise of Threat From Most Powerful State In Multipolar System Balancing Behavior (Links Indicate Alliance Tie)

6. NEO-REALISM: HYPOTHESES #2 & #3 HYPOTHESIS 2: IF THE SYSTEM IS MULTIPOLAR, THEN CONFLICT WILL BE MORE LIKELY. H2: MULTIPOLARITY--(+)--> PROBABILITY OF WAR HYPOTHESIS 3: IF THE SYSTEM IS BIPOLAR, THEN CONFLICT WILL BE LESS LIKELY. H3: BIPOLARITY--(-)-->PROBABILITY OF WAR

7. 3 3 5 5 5 5 3 9 3 9 2 2 5 5 5 5 5 5 POLARIZATION VERSUS POLARITY Key danger of multipolarity: UNCERTAINTY AND MISPERCEPTION WEAKLY POLARIZED MULTIPOLAR WORLD STRONGLY POLARIZED MULTIPOLAR WORLD

8. As Stephen Krasner has noted: • “Analytically, realism is most definite when it is investigating situations in which constraints imposed by the international system threaten minimalist state objectives: the protection of territorial and political integrity. Realism can offer its most precise explanations when states have few options because they are narrowly constrained by the international distribution of power…Realism is less analytically precise when the international system is not tightly constraining.” • Krasner, Stephen. “Realism, Imperialism, and Democracy: A Response To Gilbert.” Political Theory, 20, no. 1, Feb. 1992. Pg. 40.

9. Is realism viable today? Yes. • Realismstill offers viable analytic tools and prescriptive capabilities, debatably within a more parsimonious context, to scholars and policy makers. • States remain the primary actors within the international system. • States are still greatly concerned with power and security. • States still pursue their own national interests. • The international system remains anarchic.

10. Elements of National Power • Natural resources – self-sufficiency in terms of food, raw materials (esp. oil) • Industrial Capacity • Military Preparedness – technology, leadership, quantity and quality of armed forces • Population – distribution matters, trends • National Character – elusive to give a prognosis of, but HM assures us of its existence • Quality of Diplomacy – most important element, although it can be unstable

11. Four Distinctions of Power • Power vs. influence • Influence can persuade, but cannot compel • Power vs. force • Military component… As seen on next slides • Usable vs. unusable power • See case of availability of nuclear weapons • Only works if the targeted state cannot reply in kind • A weapon unused is a useless weapon??? • Legitimate vs. illegitimate power • Is the exercise of power morally or legally justified

12. Political Power vs. Force • Force • The actual exercise of physical violence (ie imprisonment, war, etc.) • Armed strength = most important factor (in IR) making the political power of a nation • When used, it “signifies an abdication of political power in favor of military power.” • Is based on a physical relationship: • When used, the relation between two people/states/groups becomes based on physical elements, losing any psychological relationship between the two. • The stronger in the relationship will dominate (physically) the actions of the other.

13. Four Functions of Force (Robert J. Art)

14. Political Power vs. Force (continued) • Political Power • Is based on a psychological relationship • Refers to the control over the minds, leading to control of certain actions in others • Derived from three sources: • The expectation of benefits • The fear of disadvantages • The respect of love for men or institutions • Can be applied through orders, threats, persuasion, charisma of officeholders

15. Depreciation of Political Power • Many scholars in recent centuries have come to believe that int’l power politics is a temporary phenomena • 19th C: liberals saw it as obsolete… democracy had won over absolutism; permanent peace would soon win over power politics; W. Wilson expounded on this theme (14 Points) • They (above), according to Morgenthau, are wrong. • Power struggle is universal • It would be useless and self-destructive to free some (in IR) from the desire for power and leave it in others. • The desire for power can’t be abolished everywhere. • Ex: within societies, murder is wrong; but nearly all societies view war (murder of the enemy) as may be logical or necessary