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Stressed by Strife: ASEAN from Pattaya to Preah Vihear

Stressed by Strife: ASEAN from Pattaya to Preah Vihear. Dr. Thitinan Pongsudhirak Associate Professor and Director Institute of Security and Int’l Studies Faculty of Political Science Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok Visiting Scholar, CDDRL-Humanities Center, 26 April 2010.

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Stressed by Strife: ASEAN from Pattaya to Preah Vihear

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  1. Stressed by Strife: ASEAN from Pattaya to Preah Vihear Dr. Thitinan Pongsudhirak Associate Professor and Director Institute of Security and Int’l Studies Faculty of Political Science Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok Visiting Scholar, CDDRL-Humanities Center, 26 April 2010

  2. Presentation outline • Southeast Asia as a region • Southeast Asia as an organization • Domestic strife and regional effects • Premises and prospects

  3. 1. Southeast Asia as A Region 1.1 Comparative politics of Southeast Asia • 570 million people (ASEAN Sec figure); GDP: $1.5trn • 11 countries (ASEAN + East Timor) • All post-colonial, except Siam/Thailand • Multi-ethnic; multi-religious; multi-lingual • All influenced by overseas Chinese • All affected by Japan’s Co-Prosperity Sphere in WWII • Postwar independence movements and interstate conflicts in the region

  4. 1. Southeast Asia as A Region (cont.) 1.2 Diverse and disparate regime types • Absolute monarchy: Brunei • Constitutional monarchy: Cambodia, Malaysia (federal), Thailand • Socialist: Laos and Vietnam • Military authoritarian: Burma/Myanmar • Republic: Indonesia, Philippines, Singapore, (East Timor)

  5. 1. Southeast Asia as A Region (cont.) 1.3 Vibrant economic development • tamed tigers?; formerly ASEAN Four; Asian Values?; East Asian Miracle • 1997-98 economic crisis; recovery and new trajectory 1.4 Political change and continuity: A mixed bag of democratization and autocracy • Indonesia/Malaysia/Philippines/Thailand/Singapore/Cambodia • Brunei/Laos/Vietnam/Burma-Myanmar 1.5 Internal conflicts and insurgencies in Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand

  6. 2. Southeast Asia as An Organization 2.1 International relations of Southeast Asia 2.2 Evolution and development: • Malphilindo; ASA; SEATO; ASEAN • Why ASEAN?: Konfrontasi; major powers/national development; ethnic and power balance 2.3 ASEAN as longest regional vehicle after 42 years; Cold War during 1967-87; economic exuberance in 1987-97; APEC (1989); AFTA (1992); ARF (1994) 2.4 No War in ASEAN; just border tensions and skirmishes

  7. 2. Southeast Asia as An Organization (cont.) 2.5 Expansion: Brunei (1984); Vietnam (1995); Laos and Burma/Myanmar (1997); Cambodia (1999) 2.6 Miracle-Meltdown; Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI) under ASEAN Plus Three (APT) from 1998 2.7 GWOT (2001-08); Second Front; Separatist insurgencies 2.8 ASEAN Charter (December 2008); legal entity; 3 pillars in APSC, AEC and ASCC; ASEAN Community by 2015

  8. 2. Southeast Asia as An Organization (cont.) 2.9 Underlying dynamics of charter: • Maintaining relevance • ASEAN charter as codification of norms • Non-interference with democratizing principles (Article 1: 7) • ASEAN Intergovernmental Commission on Human Rights (AICOHR); People-centered ASEAN? • A personal encounter

  9. 3. Domestic strife and regional effects • Perennial Burma/Myanmar albatross; ASSK’s confinement; elections in 2010 • Indonesia’s frustration • Vietnam’s domestic concerns • Cambodia’s posture • Singapore’s imperative • Malaysia’s growing polarization • Philippines’ constraints • Thailand’s nadir

  10. 3. Domestic strife and regional effects (cont.) • Thai crisis and Thai chairmanship of ASEAN in mid 2008-09; two years for 4th East Asia Summit (EAS) • From Pattaya to Preah Vihear • Preah Vihear v. Phra Viharn • Hun Sen-Thaksin and Hun Sen-Abhisit • Thailand’s founding pillar to weakest link (ASSK’s comment and 16th summit machinations in April 2010)

  11. 3. Domestic strife and regional effects (cont.) • ASEAN at 42; a midlife crossroads • ASEAN Plus Three; China’s orbit • East Asian Community; Japan’s timid vision • East Asia Summit (ASEAN+6) • East Asia Summit Plus US and Russia? • Australia’s Asia-Pacific Community

  12. 3. Domestic strife and regional effects (cont.) • APEC; ARF (no PD); AFTA (largest markets still external) • Trends in bilateral FTAs • Trilateral Summit in NEAsia; Six-Party Talks (SPT) sometimes efficacious • ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting (ADMM) • Shangri-La Dialogue • Asian Six in G-20 • An architectural search for regional order

  13. 4. Premises and prospects • Centrality without performance? • Evolution of the “ASEAN Way” • Interests, institutions and identity • Domestic constraints on regionalism • Implications for the US (hub-spokes no more?) • Glass half-empty or half-full • Shallow and patchy integration (e.g. NTS) but won’t go away

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