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E NERGÍA EN EL M UNDO LA ERA DE LA ESCASEZ Marcelo Martínez Mosquera

E NERGÍA EN EL M UNDO LA ERA DE LA ESCASEZ Marcelo Martínez Mosquera BIEL light & building – 4 de Noviembre de 2009. Sep-07. 1. ENERGY IN THE WORLD. W ORLD P RIMARY E NERGY D EMAND BY S ECTOR. W ORLD P RIMARY E NERGY S OURCES 2008. Source: BP Statistical Review of World 2009.

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E NERGÍA EN EL M UNDO LA ERA DE LA ESCASEZ Marcelo Martínez Mosquera

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  1. ENERGÍA EN EL MUNDO LA ERA DE LA ESCASEZ Marcelo Martínez Mosquera BIEL light & building – 4 de Noviembre de 2009

  2. Sep-07

  3. 1. ENERGY IN THE WORLD

  4. WORLD PRIMARY ENERGY DEMANDBY SECTOR

  5. WORLD PRIMARY ENERGY SOURCES 2008 Source: BP Statistical Review of World 2009

  6. ENERGY GROWTH Last 5 years til Dec-08: annual growth Oil 1.3 % Natural Gas 3.1 % Coal 4.9 % Nuclear 0.7 % Hydro 3.8 % TOTAL 2.9 %

  7. 2. OIL

  8. WORLD OIL PRICES AND PRODUCTION 90s 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1H-09 [USD/bbl] WTI 20.7 25.9 26.2 31.1 41.5 56.6 66.0 72.2 100.1 51.6 [MMbbl/d] OPEC 31.3 29.9 31.9 34.4 36.0 36.3 34.8 35.9 33.5 FSU 8.6 9.4 10.3 11.2 11.6 12.2 12.8 12.8 13.0 Rest of the World 35.2 35.6 35.6 35.5 34.9 34.6 35.6 35.2 35.4 TOTAL 75.1 74.9 77.8 81.1 82.5 83.1 83.2 83.9 81.9 Source: Oil Market Report IEA - Platts

  9. WORLD PEAK OIL Source: The Future of Oil, Maurice Dusseault

  10. QUESTION MARKS • Athabasca oil sands & Orinoco Faja • Pre-salt Brazil • Irak

  11. 90s 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 [USD/bbl] WTI 20.7 25.9 26.2 31.1 41.5 56.6 66.0 72.2 100.1 [MMbbl/d] WORLD DEMAND 75.1 74.9 77.8 81.1 82.5 83.1 83.2 83.9 WORLD OIL DEMAND “The problem with oil is that demand is too young and supply is too old”. Matthew Simmons Source: Oil Market Report IEA - Platts

  12. WORLD PRIMARY ENERGY SOURCES 2008 Source: BP Statistical Review of World 2009

  13. WORLD ELECTRICITY GENERATION Source: IEA

  14. ELECTRICITY INVESTMENT FUEL COST O&M TOTAL [USD/kW] [USD/MWh] [USD/unit] [USD/MWh] [USD/MWh] [USD/MWh] Natural Gas -CC 1,000 15.4 7 USD/MMbtu49.7 469 Coal -ST 2,000 36.170 USD/ tn25.5668 Fuel Oil – ST 1,900 32.2425 USD/tn99.7 7139 Diesel Oil – CC 1,100 16.9764 USD/tn121.15143 Nuclear 3,500 62.7100 USD/kg3.5975 Hydro 3,000 98.6 - - 6105 Wind 2,000 75.5 - - 681 Solar 5,000 220.1 - - 10230 WTI= 80 U$S/bbl Source: Own research

  15. ELECTRICITY Investment + Fuel Cost + O&M Paper MMM 2007 1Q-2009 [USD/MWh] [USD/MWh] Natural Gas -CC72 69 Coal -ST69 68 Fuel Oil – ST104 139 Diesel Oil – CC119 143 Nuclear66 75 Hydro94 105 Wind88 81 Solar416 230 THRESHOLD MMM 80 80 Source: Own research

  16. CO2 tn/MWh SOURCE Coal 0.894 Oil 0.659 Natural Gas 0.432 Nuclear - Wind  - Hydro - EMISSIONS Source: EIA-DOE

  17. 3. NATURAL GAS

  18. 90s 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1H-09 [USD/MMbtu] HENRY HUB 2.2 4.1 3.3 5.6 5.9 8.8 6.8 7.0 8.9 4.1 NATURAL GAS PRICES Source: BP Statistical Review of World 2008 given in Natural Gas Week - Bloomberg

  19. NATURAL GAS RESERVES AND PRODUCTION PRODUCTION RESERVES R/P [TCF] [TCF] [years] Russia 21.3 1,529 72 US 20.6 238 12 Iran 4.1 1,046 254 Qatar 2.7 899 331 Others 59.9 2,822 47 TOTAL 108.6 6,534 60 Source: BP Statistical Review of World 2009

  20. NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 [TCF] Russia 18.6 19.0 19.8 20.2 20.5 21.0 20.9 21.3 US 19.6 18.9 19.1 18.5 18.0 18.5 19.1 20.6 Iran 2.3 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.1 Qatar 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.2 2.7 Others 46.0 47.4 49.5 51.8 54.3 56.5 57.8 59.9 TOTAL 87.5 89.0 92.4 94.9 98.1 101.6 104.0 108.6 Annual average growth 2003-2008 3.3% Source: BP Statistical Review of World 2009

  21. 2008 [TCF] Conventional gas 9.5 46% Tight sands 7.3 36% Coal Bed Methane 1.7 8% Shales 2.1 10% TOTAL 20.6 100% US NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION New technologies – Directional drilling – Microseismic - Fracturing

  22. NATURAL GAS PROFILE 2008 [TCF] Own consumption (via gas pipeline) 79.9 Exports via gas pipeline 20.7 Exports via LNG 8.0 TOTAL 108.6 Source: BP Statistical Review of World 2009

  23. Europe & Eurasia North America 2,221 TCF 313 TCF Middle East 2,681 TCF Asia Pacific 544 TCF South & Central America 258 TCF Africa 517 TCF NATURAL GAS RESERVES Source: BP Statistical Review of World 2009

  24. MM USDUSD/MMbtu Liquefaction 2,500 2.4 Transport* (ships) 600 – 1,000 0.8 - 1.1 Regasification 1,000 0.8 TOTAL 4,100 – 4,500 4.0 – 4.3 LNG INVESTMENTS [1 train – 4 MM t/y] * Depending on distance

  25. 4. COAL

  26. PRODUCTION RESERVES R/P [MMtn] [MMtn] [years] China 2,782 114,500 41 US 1,063 238,308 224 India 512 58,600 114 Australia 250 76,200 304 Russia 327 157,010 481 South Africa 250 30,408 121 Others 1,597 150,975 95 TOTAL 6,781 826,001 122 COAL RESERVES AND PRODUCTION “Coal is the best of fuels, coal is the worst of fuels” Kenneth Deffeyes Source: BP Statistical Review of World 2009

  27. NATURAL GAS COAL CC ST Investment [USD/kW] 1,000 2,000 Fuel Cost 7 USD/MMbtu 70 USD/tn Generation Cost [USD/MWh] 69 68 Emissions [CO2 tn/MWh] 0.432 0.894 COAL vs. NATURAL GAS GENERATION COSTS Source: Own Research – EIA-DOE

  28. 5. NUCLEAR

  29. PRODUCTION RESOURCES [TU/year] [TU] Canada 9,000 423,000 Australia 8,430 1,243,000 Kazakhstan 8,521 817,000 Niger 3,032 274,000 Russia 3,521 546,000 Others 11,349 2,166,000 TOTAL 43,853 5,469,000 R/P [years] 125 URANIUM RESOURCES AND PRODUCTION Source: World Nuclear Association

  30. 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Aug-09 [USD/kg] Price U3O8 20 22 25 41 64 110 200 136 101 URANIUM PRICES Source: Trade Tech – www.uranium.info

  31. REACTORS Aug-09 GENERATION 08 No CAPACITY [MWe] [billion kWh] US 104 101,119 809.0 France 59 63,473 418.3 Japan 53 46,236 240.5 Russia 31 21,743 152.1 Germany 17 20,339 140.9 China 11 8,587 65.3 Others 161 111,036 774.9 TOTAL 436 372,533 2,601 UTILIZATION FACTOR 80% NUCLEAR REACTORS Note: # Reactors Sep-07 : 437 Source: World Nuclear Association

  32. 2006 2007 2008 [MW] Germany 20,622 22,247 23,903 Spain 11,615 15,145 16,754 US 11,603 16,818 25,170 India 6,270 8,000 9,645 Denmark  3,136 3,125 3,180 China 2,604 6,050 12,210 Others 18,383 22,738 29,936 TOTAL 74,233 94,123 120,798 WIND POWER Wind 1.3% of total generation Source: Global Wind Energy Council

  33. 6. CONCLUSIONES Energía en el mundo La era de la escasez MMM- Septiembre 07

  34. CONCLUSIONES Preámbulo “Se avecinan tiempos de escasez y de precios cada vez más altos. Nuestro estilo de vida está cambiando y va a seguir cambiando. Será un cambio ordenado si los responsables en el orden mundial reaccionan a tiempo. Será un cambio caótico si, como hasta ahora, los hechos llevan la delantera y las decisiones se toman cuando ya es demasiado tarde.” La Tecnología “Muchos analistas confían en que los proyectos de investigación y desarrollo en curso aportarán nuevas y maravillosas fuentes que solucionen nuestros problemas energéticos y, también, ambientales. “El ser humano tiene una enorme creatividad, pronto surgirá la tecnología adecuada”, escuchamos con frecuencia. Mi opinión es que, posiblemente, habrá novedades, pero nada nos evitará entrar de lleno en la crisis que se avecina.”

  35. CONCLUSIONES P x Q . Oferta y Demanda “En la ecuación energética de P, precio, y Q, cantidad, ambas tan importantes para nuestra vida en general, la única variable que debería interesarle a partir de ahora a los países y a las sociedades en general es “asegurar Q”. A cualquier precio, porque la energía más cara es la que no se tiene.” ¿Quién se hace cargo? “Desde el tablero de las decisiones energéticas, los tiempos se cuentan en lustros o décadas. Cuando llega el dolor es tarde porque ya no hay tratamiento posible. Se requieren verdaderos estadistas a escala mundial para corregir el rumbo a tiempo, principalmente porque ninguna de las soluciones posibles tiene “aceptación pública” inmediata.”

  36. ENERGÍA EN EL MUNDO LA ERA DE LA ESCASEZ Marcelo Martínez Mosquera BIEL light & building – 4 de Noviembre de 2009

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