April 17, 2006 LeRoy Spayd Chief, Meteorological Services Division

1. Unidata Policy Committee NOAA/NWS Status April 17, 2006 LeRoy Spayd Chief, Meteorological Services Division Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services NOAA’s National Weather Service

2. Outline • Integrated Upper-air Observing System (IUOS) • Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) • Digital Services • NWS Budget

3. Strategy and Roadmap Implementing an Integrated Upper-air Observing System (IUOS)

4. NOAA’s Observation System Target Architecture • Target Architecture Principles: • Utility • Focus on societal benefits • Requirements-based • All data archived and accessible • Interoperability • Full and open data sharing • Standards-based • Flexibility • Leverages new technology • Sustainability • Build on existing systems • Affordability • Effectively use non-NOAA systems Partnerships National International

5. BackgroundToward Integrated Observing Systems • Need for improved and cost-effective observations of Earth system driving plans for integrated observing systems in NOAA, nationally, and globally through GEOSS • In NOAA, plans underway for integrated ocean (IOOS) and surface (ISOS) observation systems IOOS ISOS

6. BackgroundWhy IUOS? • NOAA currently spends $100M/yr on upper-air observations (not including satellites) • Platforms and DMAC fragmented across LOs, Programs, and Goals resulting in duplication and cost-inefficiency • New systems coming • NPN refurbishment and expansion • MDCRS/Water Vapor Sensing System (WVSS) • Radiosonde Replacement System (RRS) • PDM direction to begin eliminating radiosonde/aircraft observation duplication • Radars, UAS, Satellites, … • Plan is needed for integrated upper-air observation system(IUOS)supporting NOAA mission linked to IOOS and ISOS NOAA Investment/yr ($M) by System

7. Aircraft Observations over U.S. What is IUOS?Definition • Complete network (including DMAC) of all upper-air observation systems available to NOAA regardless of: • parameter, • data quality, • ownership, • timeliness, or • redistribution rights

8. IUOS part of GEOSS What is IUOS?Mission and Requirements Space • IUOS Mission: Cost-effectively meet existing NOAA upper-air observation requirements; and future validated requirements for: • Improved spatial, temporal, and spectral resolution • New observations of environmental parameters • Data Management and Communications (DMAC) • Upper-air observation requirements space: • Geographical Extent: Global • Vertical Extent: 10 m above surface to Sun • Temporal Range: Warnings to Global Climate Change Prediction • Parameters: Winds, temperature, pressure, moisture, air chemistry, reflectivity, aerosols, biology, ….

9. IUOS Platforms and Sensors What is IUOS?Solution Characteristics • IUOS solution characteristics – Future IUOS will be: • Adaptable, extensible, stable, continuous, and quality assured • Cost-effective – avoid unnecessary duplication • Serving multi-purposes - including driving Earth-system models • Consistent with/component of USGEO and GEOSS • Final Operating Capability: • “Optimal” mix of NOAA and non-NOAA observation platforms including bothin situ and remote sensors based on NOSA Architecture Principles

10. Profilers Existing NOAA Profilers Potential New IOOS Profilers Where are We?Known Components of Future IUOS Aircraft Obs (MDCRS) Routes • Radiosondes with GPS (RRS) -- completed by FY 08 • Aircraft • 1700 aircraft (MDCRS) today expanding to 2000 by FY 12 • 25 aircraft with WVSS today expanding to 1135 by FY 12 • NOAA directing elimination of redundancies between radiosondes and aircraft observations starting in FY 08 • Refurbished/expanded NOAA Profiler Network (NPN) • Completed by FY 09 • IOOS expanding NPN to coastal areas in FY 07 • Satellite evolution will occur, but details unclear • GPS IPW, UAS, Phased Array radar, and other new technologies on/over horizon

11. IUOS Components Radar Satellite In Situ Adaptive How will we get there?Implementation Strategy -- Phased In the context of existing observing systems… • Phase 1: Integrate In Situ Regional Soundings (IOC – FY08) • Platforms: Radiosondes, aircraft (MDCRS, WVSS, TAMDAR) • DMAC: Ensure compliance with GEO-IDE Principles and Standards – ditto in subsequent phases • Phase 2: Integrate Regional Soundings (IOC – FY10) • Platforms: Phase 1+ Profilers (NPN), Cooperative Agency Profilers (CAP), GPS Integrated Precip. Water (IPW), Satellite Soundings and IPW • Phase 3: Integrate Regional Radar Observations (IOC – FY12) • Platforms: Phase 2+NEXRAD, TDWR, Dual Pol, Phased Array, Other Radars (e.g., Commercial, CASA) • Phase 4: Integrate Adaptive Observations (IOC – FY 14) • Platforms: Phase 3+G-IV, P-3, UAS • Phase 5: Integrate Use of Future Satellite Observations (IOC – FY 16) • Platforms: Phase 4+GOES-R, NPOESS, Other satellites W&W/NWS Lead Other NOAA Lead

12. How will we get there?System Roadmap for Phases 1-3 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Phase 1 – In Situ Sndgs 102 102 102 102 102 102 102 102 102 92 NWS, 10 Caribbean Radiosonde 102 FY06 Earmark funds all 102 stations for RRS upgrade RRS 78 78 78 69 57 45 27 15 2000 2000 1950 1900 Communications and Optimization Unfunded 1850 Aircraft (MDCRS) 1800 1750 1700 1500 FY15 1135 1600 885 35 25 Aircraft w/Water Vapor 635 460 285 160 FY15 Actual # 1-for1 stns determined By In Situ Sndg Strategy 52 46 38 52 1-for-1 RAOB/Aircraft Obs 30 22 5 Phase 2 – Int Region Sndgs FY15 43 43 Actual # profilers required determined by Int. Reg. Sndg 40 37 35 35 35 35 35 80 Profilers 43 43 40 37 ESA Galileo IOC FY08 Profilers - 449 MHz Sites 30 14 4 4 4 Buoy Mounted Profilers 2 FYXX Actual # GPS-Met IPW Determined by Int. Reg. Sndg 200 GPS IPW 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 Phase 3 – Int Radar FYXX ? ? ? # FAA TDWRs Determined by Int Radar Strategy ? Radar (FAA TDWR) ? 45 ? 10 4 158 148 R&D Sites Radar (Dual Pol) 98 38 PART-Bed PART-Bed PART-Bed PART-Bed PART-Bed Radar (Phased Array) OperationalSites OKT-Bed 100% Complete OKT-Bed OKT-Bed 12 Radar (Other, NetRad/CASA) 8 4 4

13. Phase 1: Radiosonde/WV Aircraft ObsPDM Guidance • In FY06: • Evaluate model response to water-vapor sensor derived data • Evaluate implications of • forecasters using different data source and, • reaction of broader US weather enterprise. • Use evaluation to develop plan for implementation • In FY08: Begin eliminating redundant capability for weather observations PDM Guidance ($M)

14. Phase 1: One-for-One (Radiosonde vs. WVSS) Sounding Exchange • Leverage aircraft water vapor sensor profile • Utilizes vertical data sets from ascent & descent of aircraft • Obtains higher resolution observations • Reduce total number of launches of Radiosondes • Target sites outside of Climatological Requirements • Targeted sites will launch 1 per day • Allows limited specials for severe weather and other discrete events • Saves $’s by reducing expendables

15. Phase 1: One-for-One (Radiosonde vs. WVSS) Sounding Exchange Estimated Cost Savings One Radiosonde Launch Eliminated per Day 1/Limited to costs for expendable supplies such as helium, balloon, parachute, etc Labor costs not included

16. NOAA IUOSCurrent Data Management Capacity • Observing system architecture and data management are fragmented across LOs, Mission Goals, and Programs Sensors System Monitoring QC/QA Distribution Archive GOES/POES SOC SOC GOES/POES, NOAAPORT NCDC NPN NPN Hub NPN Hub MADIS, NOAAPORT NCDC/FSL NLDN Vaisala Vaisala Vaisala, NOAAPORT Vaisala WSR-88D ROC WFO, RFC, ROC AWIPS WAN, NOAAPORT NCDC ASOS Ceilometer AOMC WFO, AOMC NOAAPORT NCDC GPS IPW NPN Hub NPN Hub NPN Hub FSL Radiosonde WFO, Gateway, WFO, NCEP, Gateway NOAAPORT, GTS NCDC GCOS-GUAN NCDC NCDC MDCRS Air Carriers, ARINC NCEP, MADIS ARINC, NOAAPORT FSL P-3, G-IV AOML, OMAO NCEP, AOML FTP, NOAAPORT NCDC PIREPS/AIREPS RTVS, ARMS NCEP, NCDC NCEP, NCDC NCDC

17. NOAA IUOSEnd State: Data ManagementFunctionally Streamlined System ComponentSystem MonitoringDistributionArchive 1. SatellitesSatellite Ops Center NOAAPORT NNDCs Research Satellites * Integrated QC/QA NOAA Central Portal NPOESS/GOES-R * Metadata NNDC E-commerce * Data Continuity/Calibration NNDCs/SAA * Performance Monitoring 2. Radar/VHF/LidarTerrestrial Remote NPN Sensing Monitoring Center WSR-88D, TDWR * Integrated QA/QC GPS IPW * Metadata Radiometer * Data Continuity/Calibration ASOS Ceilometer * Performance Monitoring Lightning Data (NLDN) NetRad/Commercial Radar 3. In Situ SensorsIn Situ Monitoring Center Radiosonde * Integrated QA/QC AMDAR/MDCRS/TAMDAR * Metadata ASAP * Data Continuity/Calibration PIREPS/AIREPS * Performance Monitoring 4. Targeting/Adaptive SensorsAdaptive Obs Monitoring Center P-3. G-IV, UAS * Integrated QA/QC SFMR * Metadata Driftsondes * Data Continuity/Calibration Dropsondes * Performance Monitoring * Targeting/Uncertainty

18. Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) Update

19. IOOS: According to Ocean.US The IOOS is a coordinated national and international network of observations and data transmission, data management and communications (DMAC), and data analyses and modeling that systematically and efficiently acquires and disseminates data and information on past, present and future states of the oceans and U.S. coastal waters to the head of tide. - From the IOOS Development Plan [Adopted by ICOSRMI]

20. Background – IOOS the Big Picture • The US Ocean Action Plan calls for IOOS • GEOSS is a comprehensive, coordinated, and sustained international network of observations • IOOS is the US contribution to GOOS which is the ocean component of GEOSS • The U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System Development Plan is an Interagency Committee on Ocean Science and Resource Management Integration (ICOSRMI) plan • AGM for FY 08-12: NOAA must “manage Earth observations on a global scale, ranging from atmospheric, weather, and climate observations to oceanic, coastal, and marine life observations” • IOOS is designated as a NOAA Major Project: • NOC and NOSC oversight • Manager: Dave Zilkoski; Deputy: Mike Johnson; DMAC Focal Point: Kurt Schnebele

21. IOOS Components • U.S. IOOS has three interdependent subsystems: • Observing (Global and Coastal components) • Data Management & Communication (DMAC) • Modeling and Analysis • Partners: • Federal Agencies • NOAA • NSF • Navy • NASA • EPA • USGS • MMS • USACE • Regional Associations • State Agencies • WMO/IOC Coastal Ocean Component Global Ocean Component National Backbone GoA GLs NE DMAC* NW MA Regional Observing Systems C&No Cal SE Pac Isl So Cal Lower Go Mex Resolution Higher * Ocean Component of NOAA GEO IDE

22. NOAA’s IOOS Observing Systems By NOAA Mission Goal (As defined in the NOAA Observing System Architecture) Global Total Systems: 8 Coastal Total Systems: 23 Commerce & Transportation • Hydrographic Surveys (includes bathymetry) • National Current Observations • National Water Level Obs. Network (NWLON) • Phy. Oceanographic Real Time Sys. (PORTS) • Shoreline Surveys • Climate • IOOS Arctic Observing System • IOOS Argo Profiling Floats* • IOOS Drifting Buoys • IOOS Ocean Carbon Networks* • IOOS Ocean Reference Station* • IOOS Ships of Opportunity • IOOS Tide Gauge Stations • IOOS Tropical Moored Buoys • Ecosystems • Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP)* • Coral Reef Ecosystem Integrated Observing System (CREIOS) • Commercial Fisheries-Dependent Data • Economic/ Sociocultural Observing System* • Ecosystem Surveys • Fish Surveys • National Observer Program • Protected Resource Surveys • Recreational Fisheries-Dependent Data • System-Wide Monitoring Program (SwiM) for Marine Sanctuaries* • System-Wide Monitoring Program (SWMP) for National Estuarine Research Reserves • Passive Acoustics Observing System* • National Status and Trends Program* • Weather & Water • Coastal Marine Automated Network (C-MAN) • DART • Voluntary Observing Ships • Weather Buoys • SEAWIFS* • Mission Support • NOAA Ships • NOAA Aircraft* • NOAA Satellite (managed outside of IOOS) * - NOAA is working to update Interagency IOOS documentation

23. IOOS Observing Subsystem: Global Component • Designed to meet climate requirements but also supports: • Weather prediction • Global and coastal ocean prediction • Marine hazards warning • Transportation • Marine environment and ecosystem monitoring • Naval applications • Homeland security • Objectives are well defined with GPRA performance measures. • Well coordinated nationally and internationally. • System 55% complete. • NOAA capacities: • $43.5 million • 19 centers of expertise • 151 people • Office of Climate Observation - a demonstration project directly applicable to the IOOS Project. • NOAA contributes 53% of the present international effort. • IOOS Tide gauge stations • IOOS Drifting Buoys • IOOS Tropical Moored Buoys • IOOS Argo Profiling Floats • IOOS Ships of Opportunity • IOOS Ocean Reference Stations • IOOS Ocean Carbon Networks • IOOS Arctic Observing System • Dedicated Ship Support • Data & Assimilation Subsystems • Management and Product Delivery • Satellites (managed outside of IOOS)

24. IOOS Observing Subsystem Components: Coastal Component- National Backbone • Designed to meet IOOS societal goals and all 5 NOAA Mission Goals • Also supports other agency and partner efforts to manage our Nation’s oceans, coasts, and Great Lakes • Coordinated nationally and regionally focusing on partnerships. • System 25 – 35% complete. • Better defining objectives and working on developing strong GPRA measures. • NOAA capacities: • ~$600M - $700M support IOOS • ~$55M/year is for integration efforts • 24 programs contribute, 8-9 major contributors • Project Office in NOS AA’s office coordinates NOAA-wide activities • NOAA contributes 55 -65% of the present national effort.

25. IOOS Data Management and Communications Subsystem:DMAC Definition The IOOS is a coordinated national and international network of observations and data transmission, data management and communications (DMAC), and data analyses and modeling that systematically and efficiently acquires and disseminates data and information on past, present and future states of the oceans and U.S. coastal waters to the head of tide. - From the IOOS Development Plan [Adopted by ICOSRMI] The DMAC is: Information technology infrastructure such as national backbone data systems, regional data centers, and archive centers connected by the Internet, and using shared standards and protocols. - From the DMAC Plan (March 2005)

26. DMAC IOOS IOOS DMAC Subsystem Observation/Measurement Collection Data Transmission Primary data assembly, real-time quality control Interoperable real-time distribution Delayed mode (ecosystems, climate) data assembly, quality control Archive & access Creating information products Users: requirements & feedback

27. NWS Digital Services Update

28. Experimental elements: QPF Snow Amount Sky Cover Significant Wave Height Operational elements: Maximum Temperature Minimum Temperature Temperature Dew Point Probability of Precipitation Weather Wind Direction Wind Speed Apparent Temperature * Relative Humidity * * as of 3/15/06 Current CapabilityProduction Operational & experimental elements available for CONUS, Puerto Rico/ Virgin Islands, Hawaii, Guam

29. Planned Enhancements Add as experimental elements during the next 12 months: • Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Speed Probabilities from the Tropical Prediction Center • National Convective Outlooks for Days 1 and 2 from the Storm Prediction Center • Fire Weather Forecast Parameters • Elements for Alaska

30. Planned Enhancements Improve over the next 12 months: • Accuracy • Expand Guidance e.g., Gridded MOS, Downscaled GFS • Produce Gridded Verification • Generate Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis fields • Resolution • Provide NDFD forecast elements in 1-hour resolution for Days 1-3 • Separate files for Days 1-3 and Days 4-7

31. Planned Enhancements Improve over the next 12 months: • Availability (reliability) • Transition to operational status XML web service • Support operational status of NWS websites (99.9% uptime) • Consistency • Improve and standardize forecasters’ grid-editing tools • Modify collaboration thresholds and better procedures

32. NWS Budget • FY06 – NWS has a $51M deficit in a base operations budget of $610M (labor is $480M or 79%) - Mitigation measures include: - 10-15% labor reduction at NWS HQ - 3% labor reduction in field - Defer new technology improvements and IT refresh (e.g.,TDWR access) - Reductions in contracts/grants/travel/supplies/outreach • FY07 - PB Base operations $655M (labor is $491M or 75%) - Increases directed for buoys, tsunamis, facilities - Deficit projected at $30M in President’s budget - Expected deficit is at $40-$50M range due to unfunded pay raises, earmarks, rescissions