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WHY DO ALL STATES FIGHT ? THE THIRD IMAGE

Explore the key assumptions of realism in international relations, including the role of states, anarchy, sovereignty, self-help, and aggression. Delve into debates such as relative vs absolute power shifts, the importance of balances of power, and the impact of multipolarity, bipolarity, and unipolarity. Understand the factors that drive international politics, including rationality, morality, norms, and ideas. Analyze the potential danger in US-Chinese relations and the differing perspectives of realists and liberals.

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WHY DO ALL STATES FIGHT ? THE THIRD IMAGE

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  1. WHY DO ALL STATES FIGHT?THE THIRD IMAGE

  2. WHAT ARE REALISM’S KEY ASSUMPTIONS? • The main unit of analysis: states • The main quality of the intl. system = Anarchy • Anarchy=Sovereignty = Self-help=Aggression • What drives international politics? Rationality vs. the power of morality, norms, & ideas • What are the two big ideas out there with respect to how to deal with security dilemmas (Kant vs. Rousseau) • All intl. politics is about power, but there are some debates: • Relative vs. absolute power shifts (Zero-sum vs. positive sum-assumptions) • What are the most important types of power? Hard, sticky, and soft? • Liberals vs Realists: The debate over China as an example

  3. IS MULTIPOLAR IS BETTER? • Why do balances of power matter? • Do cross-cutting cleavages make for more stability? • More actors, more mediators • More actors, easier to balance: slower arms races • More actors makes it harder to concentrate war on one other actor • Multipolarity is less certain, so war reluctance more likely

  4. IS BIPOLAR IS BETTER? • Fewer actors, fewer mistakes, lower possibility that one conflict goes global • Fewer actors, more institutionalized communication • Fewer actors, less impact any defection has • Balance of power is easier to achieve, less of a security dilemma • Two parties = moderation: just like with the median voter

  5. UNIPOLAR IS BETTER? • Why are empires so stable?: • Is the concentration of power a good thing? Collective dilemmas, and institution formation • How do hierarchy (both global and regional) and the speed of change impact the probability of war? • Why do empires inevitably come and go? Gilpin’s War and Change in World Pol: • Free-riding and overreach • The law of uneven growth • Consumerism, innovation, & decadence • Status discrepancy

  6. IS SYSTEMIC CHANGE THE REAL PROBLEM? When is war most likely in the “power cycle” of international relations? • When change in the intl system is both abrupt and unpredictable… Why? (when are security dilemmas the biggest problem?) • When a regional hegemon’s power capabilities mismatch its aspirations (desired role, breath of its interests): status discrepancy • Things get more dicey if a global hegemon’s power is in play and the speed of its change • Things are more problematic depending on the number and proximity of states going through rapid change • The most problematic type of change is when a new set of fundamental intl. rules and regimes is at stake

  7. WHY DO REALISTS THINK WE’RE HEADED FOR DANGER? • What’s John Mearsheimer’s view of the likely trajectory of US-Chinese relations in the next few decades? Why do “liberals” reject the idea that China and the US will fight?

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