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Analysis of potential monetization opportunities for various assets in the media portfolio, including valuation basis, key considerations, and prospective buyers. Explore strategies and scenarios for maximizing value through divestitures or acquisitions.
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Potential Monetization Summary DRAFT – FOR DISCUSSION ONLY 2
Shine DRAFT – FOR DISCUSSION ONLY • Key Considerations • As part of SPE’s funding in the Metronome acquisition, Shine made good faith commitment to find a buyer for SPE stake by end of FY10, with purchase price in cash of at least $73MM • Valuation Basis • DCF analysis based on terminal value of 10x EBITDA and 10% discount rate • Implied multiple of ~0.7x-1.0x FY10E revenue and ~7.5x-11x EBITDA 3 Note: SPE basis reflects proforma as of end of FY10
GSN DRAFT – FOR DISCUSSION ONLY • Key Considerations • Sizeable divestiture; sale of our 35% stake could generate ~$270MM of cash and ~$200MM in EBIT • May be difficult to entice Liberty/DirecTV to acquire in the near-term • Buy/sell or put/call provisions are not triggered until December 2011 • Liberty / DirecTV could acquire sooner but DirecTV has expressed limited interest • Chase Carey (DirecTV CEO) requested put/call be converted to buy/sell provision to ensure DirecTV can not be forced to acquire SPE’s GSN stake • If DirecTV were interested, they are unlikely to acquire our stake prior to completion of the DirecTV/LEI merger slated for late CY09 • Valuation Basis • Value estimate based on recent transaction values, may be at high-end of range • GSN valued at $600MM • FUN valued at $180MM • Implied combined value of $780MM 4 • Financial data differs slightly from SPE received/forecast amounts due to fiscalization of calendar years
ITN DRAFT – FOR DISCUSSION ONLY • Key Considerations • ITN is a smaller divestiture. Likely buyer Veronis Suhler Stevenson may only be interested at a discounted price • Given SPE’s minority position and VSS’ right to approve transfer of our stake, existing partners (VSS or CEO Tim Connors) are likely the only buyers • Tim Connors expressed some interest in our stake but we discount his degree of interest • With their current controlling stake, VSS is likely only motivated to acquire if they believe they are acquiring at a price that improves their IRR • Valuation Basis • Enterprise valuation: Value estimate of $160MM-$200MM represents 0.8x-1.0x CY08 revenue, 4.9x-6.1x EBITDA • As of 4/24/09 Omnicom trading at 5.7x trailing and 6.8x forward, CBS trading at 8.2x trailing and 7.5x forward, U.S. Entertainment trading at 8.9x trailing and 6.4x forward multiples 5 • Financial data differs slightly from SPE received/forecast amounts due to fiscalization of calendar years
PMP Showtime DRAFT – FOR DISCUSSION ONLY • Key Considerations • While PMP provides positive EBIT and cash contribution, it is not a strategic asset • Potential negative impact to licensing revenue, currently ~$15MM per year, could be mitigated by securing a long-term contract • Buyers are some or all of existing partners • Valuation Basis • DCF analysis based on 8-10x EBIT terminal value and 10% discount rate. 6
TV1 / Sci-Fi Channel DRAFT – FOR DISCUSSION ONLY • Key Considerations • Positive EBIT and cash flow contribution but not strategic assets • Potential negative impact to licensing revenue, currently ~$3.5MM per year, could be mitigated by long term contract. There are also competitive buyers in the market. • Universal is interested in acquiring our stake in the Sci-Fi channel due to their global brand. Therefore opportunity to leverage our equity interest in both channels to secure majority ownership in their Australian Hallmark channel which we would be able to control and re-brand as SET or AXN. Deal expected to be cash-neutral. • Valuation Basis • DCF analysis with 8x-10x EBIT terminal value and 10% discount rate. 7
FilmFlex DRAFT – FOR DISCUSSION ONLY • Key Considerations • With 3 years remaining on carriage agreement with Virgin, currently negotiating a renewal but may not reach agreement on an extension. • If renewal is successful, Filmflex has growth potential through expanding to broadband and new territories which would significantly enhance valuation if sale can be delayed until after expansion. Otherwise expect venture to end in 3 years, with incentive for partners to cut costs and maximize value of remaining cash flow stream. • No obvious potential buyer – Disney has no desire to buy up and sale to Virgin would not generate attractive valuation. • Valuation Basis • If carriage is not renewed (i.e. no terminal value or expansion potential), expected enterprise valuation of $15-$30MM implying ~3-5x EBITDA. This compares to previous valuation of $60-80MM, which assumed projected expansion into new territories and platforms as well as terminal value of 10x based on long term growth (implied current EBITDA multiple of 10-14x) • Note: SPE and Disney bought ODG's share in 2008, at implied enterprise valuation of ~$50MM 8
HBO Central Europe DRAFT – FOR DISCUSSION ONLY • Key Considerations • Strategic asset as HBO CE distributes SPT channels in the region, provides strategic advantages in expansion to emerging markets and offers up-to-the minute marketplace info • Potential negative impact to channels subscriber revenue and licensing revenue. Licensing revenue could be mitigated by long-term contract. Subscriber revenue could be strengthened in long run by self-distribution which is expected to cost ~$3MM in overhead per year. • Estimated aggregate EBIT impact of ($1.5MM) in FY11 growing to ($10MM) by FY19, in addition to lost annual equity income of $~5MM+ • Monetization opportunity can be maximized by selling buy-up option to Warner for $20-25MM and then sell stake in a few years time for at least today’s valuation, and possibly higher due to continuing growth opportunities in emerging markets • Valuation Basis • Valuation based on market comps of 10x – 13x EBITDA 9
HBO Central Europe – Potential Impact on SPE Channels DRAFT – FOR DISCUSSION ONLY • Assumes continuing HBO distribution for 3 years • Plan to set up own distribution and ad sales capabilities in Central Europe in next 3 years to drive growth • Recommend sell buy-up option now and monetize stake in appr. 3 years once set up own infrastructure 10
HBO Latin America DRAFT – FOR DISCUSSION ONLY (a) HBO fiscalized entity revenue estimate from HBO calendar year projection • Key Considerations • Key strategic asset primarily due to: • SPT channels distributed by HBO with current subscriber revenue of ~$60MM per year • Negative impact on SPT’s ability to launch new channels in region and loss of up-to-the-minute marketplace info • SPT represents HBO channels in ad sales • Potential negative impact to tech ops stability and fees for HBO’s tech ops services to our channels • Additionally, potential negative impact to licensing revenue, currently ~$50MM per year, which could be mitigated through long-term contract • Estimated aggregate EBIT impact of ($12-21MM) in FY11 growing to ($16-26MM) by FY19 (higher impact if HBO terminates distribution contract leading to SPT self-distribution), in addition to lost annual equity income of $~18MM+ • Recommend retaining stake, though if a sale is mandated, retention of small voting stake and board seat would be critically important to long-term strategic positioning and growth in region • Valuation Basis • Based on market comps multiple of ~10x to 14x EBITDA • Disney sale in 2008 established valuation benchmark of ~$630MM or ~12x EBITDA (excludes option prices to SPE and Ole which may be considered additional control premium) 11
HBO Latin America– Potential Impact on SPE ChannelsScenario A: Continue HBO Distribution DRAFT – FOR DISCUSSION ONLY 12
HBO Latin America– Potential Impact on SPE ChannelsScenario B: Self-Distribution in event HBO terminates distribution contract DRAFT – FOR DISCUSSION ONLY 13