1 / 50

Key Themes from Point Topic Tim Johnson point-topic

Key Themes from Point Topic Tim Johnson www.point-topic.com Barriers to Broadband Workshop 1 February 2005. Key themes. Broadband stays on course UK, Western Europe, World A good year for the UK How to bridge the gaps and barriers Triple play solutions are in demand

bambi
Download Presentation

Key Themes from Point Topic Tim Johnson point-topic

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Key Themes from Point Topic Tim Johnsonwww.point-topic.com Barriers to Broadband Workshop1 February 2005

  2. Key themes • Broadband stays on course • UK, Western Europe, World • A good year for the UK • How to bridge the gaps and barriers • Triple play solutions are in demand • Winners and losers for next-generation broadband www.point-topic.com

  3. Broadband stays on course

  4. 136m broadband lines worldwide at 30 September 2004 Million lines Source: Point Topic Q3 2004 www.point-topic.com

  5. Broadband lines worldwide www.point-topic.com

  6. Broadband lines in Western Europe www.point-topic.com

  7. Broadband lines in the UK www.point-topic.com

  8. Broadband penetration levels still vary widely www.point-topic.com

  9. Penetration levels in major countries are converging www.point-topic.com

  10. Share of broadband lines by technology Q3 2004 Source: Point Topic Q3 2004 www.point-topic.com

  11. Share of broadband lines by technology Q2 2004 Source: Point Topic Q1 2004 www.point-topic.com

  12. Broadband is growing faster than mobile did (World) Source: Informa, Ovum, Point Topic, H1 2004 www.point-topic.com

  13. Broadband is growing faster than mobile did (UK) Source: Informa, Ovum, Point Topic, H1 2004 www.point-topic.com

  14. A good year for the UK

  15. Top Ten broadband countries by number of lines: Q204 - Q304 Source: Point Topic Q3 2004 www.point-topic.com

  16. Top Ten broadband countries by penetration Q3 2004 Source: Point Topic Q3 2004, countries with at least 500,000 population www.point-topic.com

  17. Second Ten broadband countries by penetration Q3 2004 Source: Point Topic Q3 2004, countries with at least 500,000 population www.point-topic.com

  18. The UK has been growing faster than Western Europe Source: Point Topic, H1 2004 www.point-topic.com

  19. UK fourth in DSL, but gaining www.point-topic.com

  20. UK third in broadband, and also gaining www.point-topic.com

  21. UK second in broadband penetration; first in 2005? www.point-topic.com

  22. BT has the smallest share of the retail broadband market in the EU Source: ECTA, Point Topic www.point-topic.com

  23. A tale of two telcos: DSL competition in France and UK Source: ECTA www.point-topic.com

  24. Bridging the gaps

  25. The geographical divide: an “easy” problem • Improved technical solutions • new DSLAMs, rate adaptation etc • lower equipment costs • remote concentrators • Changed installation policies • lower trigger levels • more “can do” approach • Targeted investment • costs can be low compared with added value and social benefit www.point-topic.com

  26. The social divide: a tough problem • Multiple barriers to Internet and broadband take-up • Old people less than young people • Partly-educated people less than fully-educated people • Women less than men (but the difference is dissolving) • Poor people less than rich people • Take-up facing a 60% ceiling? • even in Korea only 66% of people use the Internet • most major countries see similar levels • but take-up at 80% and beyond in Scandinavia www.point-topic.com

  27. UK broadband has been growing fast so far Source: Informa, Ovum, Point Topic, H1 2004 www.point-topic.com

  28. UK broadband could crash into the ceiling soon www.point-topic.com

  29. BBC ideas to spread “digital inclusion” • “Provide a compelling reason to get a broadband connection” • iMP Interactive Media Player • using the Internet as a PVR • Digital literacy campaign - with others? • Radical reductions in the cost of access • low-cost access devices • “pay as you go” subscription model www.point-topic.com

  30. The business gap: issues • Workplace penetration is very different from firm (SME) penetration • real penetration is much lower than statistics suggest • Progress of business-quality DSL is slow • barely 10% of business broadband lines - and falling? • Broadband take-up by business has been static for several years • but signs of an uptick in 2004, at least in the UK www.point-topic.com

  31. Workplace-based views show much lower levels of take-up Source: Point Topic estimates www.point-topic.com

  32. Business-quality DSL is growing only slowly Source: Point Topic www.point-topic.com

  33. After years of stagnation, Internet trading is growing Source: DTI International Benchmarking Study 2004 www.point-topic.com

  34. Triple-play trailblazers

  35. ISP Country Value-added offering Bell Canada Canada Security services for residential and business customers Catch Communications Norway Business-focused ISP that aims to make VPNs cheaper and simpler FastWeb Italy Strong video and TV element in a triple-play bundle Free France Voice-over-IP as part of residential triple-play bundles SingTel Singapore Turbo button to boost download speeds Sprint USA Bundled DSL, telephone and mobile offering to retain customers and maintain revenue Trailblazer ISPs www.point-topic.com

  36. Video over Broadband: pillar of strategy or bottomless pit? • Making the business case is an uphill battle • competition, content, technology, opportunity • Sharp upturn in trials and services 2003-2004 • about 50 projects identified worldwide • Good results where there is weak competition • disappointments where it is strong www.point-topic.com

  37. How much contribution is broadband video making? www.point-topic.com

  38. The year when VoIP erupted • Yahoo Broadband Japan still by far the biggest • over 4m subscribers • next five have only 1m between them • Over 1,000 other providers up and running • Increasingly led by the desire to offer triple-play • pure-play VoIP fading, relatively • Skype and imitators settling in a (big) niche? www.point-topic.com

  39. Some major VoIP players were well established by mid-2004 Source: Point Topic; figures mid-2004 www.point-topic.com

  40. The telcos are frightened, but the barriers to VoIP are high • Major VoIP successes depend on high local tariffs • Price-based competition is vulnerable to price cutting by big players • Customers are not yet convinced about VoIP quality and reliability • A disruptive technology - but regulators are only just starting to tackle the issues, such as numbering • VoIP operators proving slow to leverage the opportunity of interconnection www.point-topic.com

  41. Technology options

  42. Contents • VDSL and VDSL2 • ADSL2+ • Symmetric DSL www.point-topic.com

  43. Original VDSL: a technology going nowhere? • Big in Asia-Pacific • mainly distributing FTTB inside MTUs • 2.2m lines in Korea alone - but levelling off • large numbers in China (6m?) and Japan • Very little public network VDSL • old projects not being extended • few new ones identified (Belgium, Norway, Slovenia) • “substantially all” shipments into FTTB buildouts www.point-topic.com

  44. Will VDSL2 be different? • Standard on a fast track? • first ratification Q3 2005; base standard soon after • driven by the US RBOCs; compromises to get agreement • Delivering 30Mbps up to 1.8km - eventually • What RBOCs need to offer full triple play? • two HiDef TV channels + data + VoIP • “A major technology in N. America in 2006” • Ramen Cohen, Metalink • Too disruptive for Europe? www.point-topic.com

  45. ADSL2+: the right technology at the right time? • Downstream speeds enough for realistic applications • Better range than original VDSL • Easier to integrate into an ADSL world • Annex J supports business symmetry requirement www.point-topic.com

  46. Leading-edge operators moving rapidly into ADSL2+ • Sweden and Norway • 60,000 ADSL2+ ports by end-2004 • Free (France) • migrating 1m customers to ADSL2+ “FreeBox” • 6Mbps downstream for Euro 30/month • Wanadoo (Netherlands) • 8Mbps/1Mbps for Euro88/month • BellSouth (USA) • will use ADSL2+ to trial a video offering www.point-topic.com

  47. Symmetric DSL: many choices, slow take-up • SDSL • proprietary, mainly USA • SHDSL • ITU standard, industrial strength, still a niche • Symmetrical ADSLs • ADSL2+ Annex J could be the preferred choice • VDSL • some business offerings in special situations? www.point-topic.com

  48. 1.2m Symmetric DSL lines worldwide by end-2004 Source: Point Topic www.point-topic.com

  49. Signs of stronger growth in future • Some uptick in business broadband in 2004 • Arrival of ADSL2+ should make symmetric broadband cheaper and easier • SHDSL still has technical advantages • IP VPN more recognised as the unifying platform for business applications • IP-over-Ethernet seen as the coming technology www.point-topic.com

  50. Tim Johnson www.point-topic.com tim@point-topic.com+44 (0) 20 7551 9260 www.point-topic.com

More Related