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Asia’s consumer markets The mystery of the pyramids Ross O’Brien December 2010

Asia’s consumer markets The mystery of the pyramids Ross O’Brien December 2010. The history of the future. The global growth gap. GDP Growth % change, p.a. 10. forecast. 8. 6. 4. 2. 0. 2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. 2014. -2. -4. Asia. Asia (ex Japan).

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Asia’s consumer markets The mystery of the pyramids Ross O’Brien December 2010

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  1. Asia’s consumer markets The mystery of the pyramids Ross O’Brien December 2010

  2. The history of the future

  3. The global growth gap GDP Growth % change, p.a. 10 forecast 8 6 4 2 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 -2 -4 Asia Asia (ex Japan) Latin America Sub-Saharan Africa West Europe World Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit

  4. Asia’s progressSlowed by the ‘global drag’ in 2011—but far from stopped GDP Growth % change, p.a. 2009 2010 2011 Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit

  5. Japan $3.4trn Thailand $208 Vietnam $110 Re-balancing, where it counts Value of domestic private consumption, 2014 (US$bn unless stated otherwise) Increase in private consumption/ % of GDP 2010-2014 Hong Kong $166 5% Singapore $111 2.5% China $3.8trn S Korea $724 0% Malaysia $159 -2.5% Philippines $213 -5% India $1.4trn Indonesia $604 Taiwan $323 -7.5% -10% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Growth in Private Consumption 2010-2014 Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit

  6. Asia has headroom Median household income, 2010 US$ Percentage of consumer expenditure on: 60000 Japan 16000 14000 Food Brazil Household goods 12000 Russia 10000 8000 Turkey China 6000 4000 Indonesia India 2000 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 25000 Private Consumption per head, 2010 US$ Source: Economist Intelligence Unit

  7. Asia’s F&B growth trajectory Retail food sales US$m Rest of world Latin America Asia Consumer sales of food, beverages & tobacco per capita US$ 2005 2010 2014 Source: EIU

  8. China 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 How fast the trickle-down? Number of households with annual income by EIU bracket (000s) $75k+ $3k-$5k $15k-25k Asia $50k-$75k $1k-$3k $10k-15k $35k-$50k <$1000 $5k-$10k 1,000,000 $25k-$35k Malaysia 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Vietnam

  9. GDP per capita @ PPP Fast, ForwardAsia is becoming the new centre of global economic gravity...(relatively) GDP, purchasing power parity (PPP) US$ trn. 2020.Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Country Data.

  10. China’s fleeting youth China (m) Source: EIU Source: EIU Population 15-19 16 Population 20-24 14 Population 75+ China 12 10 India 8 Average real wages % change pa Indonesia 6 Malaysia 4 Philippines 2 Thailand 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 -2 Vietnam -4 -6

  11. Chinese consumers still knitting their own safety nets Belying confidence—or underscoring it? The EIU’s 1q2010 survey of over 2,500 Chinese consumers found over 90% optimistic about the future—but they still save a third of their income for rainy days.

  12. 2010 2011 2012 The spectre of inflation turns into actual threats Inflation outlook shows upside riskson-going worry for Asia’s policy makers and decision-makers 12 10 8 6 4 2 India China Vietnam Pakistan Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit Indonesia Philippines South Korea

  13. Cities in China with populations over 1m 400 Source: enchantingchallenge.com 300 200 100 2050 1990 2000 Sources: EIU, UN Are we prepared for the mega-urban future?

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