NWT Labour Supply

1. NWT Labour Supply Bureau of Statistics July 5, 2006

2. Brown Bag Series: 2006-07 • This is first in a series of analytical presentations that will be undertaken in 2006-07 by the Bureau of Statistics on behalf of ECE. The planned topics are: • Labour supply in the NWT • Employment income patterns • Barriers to labour market entry • Forecast occupation demand • Education and labour market success • A profile of older workers in the NWT • Current and past presentations are available on the Bureau of Statistics’ website at: www.stats.gov.nt.ca

3. Presentation Outline • This presentation provides an overview of labour supply in the Northwest Territories. • There are three parts to the presentation: • Labour Supply - an overview • Labour Supply - the details • Defining labour supply • Labour supply examined by: • geography • ethnicity and gender • education • Demand for NWT Labour Supply

4. Labour Supply - An Overview

5. Why Labour Supply is important • Significant resource-based development is expected in the NWT, bringing increased labour demand • An aging population means that existing workers will need to be replaced • Labour demand in southern jurisdictions creates competition for labour, and has the potential to attract NWT residents

6. Defining Labour Supply • The answer isn’t as simple as “the unemployed” • Need to understand what comprises potential labour supply • Need to consider practical limitations to labour market participation

7. NWT Labour Market Activity, 2005 • Three Labour Market measures: • The participation rate is the Labour force as a percentage of the population 15 years of age and over: 76.1% • The unemployment rate is the number of unemployed persons as a percentage of the labour force: 5.4% • The employment rate is the number of employer persons as a percentage of the population 15 years of age and over: 72.3%

8. Labour Market Activity/Inactivity: 2004 • The Bureau’s periodic (1989, 1994, 1999, 2001, 2004 …) Community Survey provides more detailed information on those Not in the Labour Force (NILF), and on the unemployed and the employed

9. Labour Market Distribution: 2004 • One third of the population over 15 years of age has an employment rate of less than 50% and is located across 29 communities.

10. Labour Supply - The Details

11. Labour Market Components • Labour supply from: • NILF - don’t want a job • Employed • Unemployed and NILF - want a job

12. NILF - Don’t want a job • A few questions to answer about those that don’t want a job: • Where are these people located? • What is their age distribution? • Why don’t they want a job?

13. Don’t want a job: By region • Almost 30% of those 15 years of age and older in the Tli Cho are not in the labour force and do not want a job

14. Don’t want a job: By community type • The prevalence of persons not in the labour force and not wanting a job in small NWT communities is twice that of Yellowknife.

15. Don’t want a job: By age group • For the NWT as a whole, 44% of 15-19 year olds and 62% of those 60+ that are NILF don’t want a job. What about the 7% of 20-59 year olds?

16. Don’t want a job: By reason (20-59 year olds) • Family responsibilities, schooling, illness/disability, and retirement account for 82% of people 20-59 who are NILF and don’t want a job.

17. Employed • How can the employed be considered part of the available labour supply? • The under-employed

18. Employed persons working 26 weeks or less, 2004 • Of employed NWT residents, 22% worked 26 or fewer weeks in 2004, in the Deh Cho it was 37%.

19. Those working more than 26 weeks: 1999 and 2004 • Diamond impacted communities showed the greatest increase in persons working more than 26 weeks between 1999 and 2004.

20. Labour Supply Defined • Some supply has, and will, come from the ranks of the under-employed, however… • Our definition of labour supply: • The Unemployed • Those not in the labour force, but wanting a job • But should we include everyone who is unemployed and/or wants a job?

21. Labour Supply: By component • Over half the territorial labour supply is made up of individuals not looking for work, but who want a job.

22. Labour Supply: by Age Group • As was seen with those persons who don’t want a job, age is a determinant of the ability and willingness of individuals to participate in the labour market.

23. Labour Supply: by Age and community type • The bulk of labour supply, in particular for those aged 20-59, resides in small communities.

24. Labour Supply (20-59 year olds) • Geography • Education by Gender/Ethnicity and Geography • Reasons for not looking for a job

25. Labour Supply: by region • At 28%, Yellowknife accounts for the largest share, by region, of total labour supply.

26. Labour Supply: by community type • Small NWT communities account for over 55% of total labour supply.

27. Labour Supply rate: by community • Labour supply as a proportion of total population 15 years of age and older.

28. Labour Supply: By Education (>high school), by gender • In all regions excepts the Deh Cho, the female component of the labour supply has a higher level of educational attainment

29. Labour Supply: Reasons for not looking for work, by gender • Caring for children was the most often cited reason for not looking for work, and it was most often cited by women.

30. Education (>high school): by ethnicity • Outside of Yellowknife, high school attainment is consistently low among aboriginal persons in the labour supply

31. Labour Supply: Reasons for not looking for work, by ethnicity • Caring for children, attending school, and the belief that no jobs are available were reasons most often cited by aboriginal persons, with a much higher prevalence than non-aboriginal persons.

32. Demand for NWT Labour Supply

33. MGP construction - Regional labour demand: 2008-2011 • Average labour demand during construction is expected to be just over 4,000 per year, and about 6,200 during the peak year in the NWT.

34. Regional supply and average annual MGP demand • NWT supply has the potential to meet a little less than half of forecast MGP average annual construction demand.

35. Aging NWT population • Over the last six years, declining birth rates and an aging population have significantly closed the gap between pre-school aged children and those 60 years of age an older.

36. Forecast population growth rates • Over the next 20 years, the population share of those aged 60+ will double, while the share of those 20-59 will remain relatively constant.

37. Summary1 • Labour supply comprises: • the unemployed; and • those not in the labour force (NILF) who want a job. • This definition can be further refined to include only the 20-59 year old age group • Labour supply can also come from the ranks of the employed - part-time or seasonal workers who expand their volume of work to meet demand • NWT labour supply: • 55% resides primarily in small communities, of which almost 90% is aboriginal • Childcare, and the belief that no jobs are available are reasons cited as reasons for not looking for work • Of those with high school or greater, 52% is female • Childcare is the most cited reason (22%) for not looking for work

38. Summary2 • The NWT will encounter significant demand for labour resources over the next 10 years, and beyond, which will result in considerable demand and competition for labour resources. • There exists significant labour supply across most regions to support increased development, assuming that: • Opportunities will exist for the segment of labour supply with low levels of educational attainment (i.e., less than high school). • Employment opportunities will be available where labour supply resides - smaller communities - or those wanting employment will be willing, or able, to go to the work. • Female employment in mining and oil and gas in the NWT significantly exceed the current NWT and national averages of around 16%.

39. Contact Information NWT Bureau of Statistics Department of Executive (867) 873 7147 info@stats.gov.nt.ca www.stats.gov.nt.ca