Anna Krasilova Gordey Yastrebov Ovsey Shkaratan

1. ”Health of Nations”: Civilization Differences and Human Development in Post-Socialist Countries Anna Krasilova Gordey Yastrebov Ovsey Shkaratan National Research University – Higher School of Economics Moscow Russia

2. IEA 16th World Congress, July 4-8 2011, Tsinghua University, Beijing Goals of development: a shift in paradigms • Economocentrism and economic determinism • GDP per cap., economic growth, etc. • economic ‘variables’ as major determinants and attributes of development • Modernizationtheory (Rostow, Parsons, etc.) • Market economy, private ownership and democracy as basic foundations of capitalism • Universalist ideologies of catch-up development • Sustainable development theories • UNDP ideology, Human Development Index • Gross National Happiness, Happy Life-Expectancy (Veenhoven), etc. • Civilization theories (Toynbee, Spengler, Huntington, Danilevskiy, etc.)

3. IEA 16th World Congress, July 4-8 2011, Tsinghua University, Beijing Basic aspects of human development sustainability of society qualitative aspects of human development quantitative aspect of human development physical mental social demographic reproduction SUSTAINABILITY – a society’s capacity for 1) demographic reproduction and 2) resisting the potentially harmful physical, social and mental pathologies

4. IEA 16th World Congress, July 4-8 2011, Tsinghua University, Beijing Quality of human development: measurement indicators • Physical • life expectancy • diseases prevalence (cancer, diabetes etc.) • Social • trust • crime rates • suicide rate etc. • Mental • lifelong learning • addictions etc.

5. IEA 16th World Congress, July 4-8 2011, Tsinghua University, Beijing Empirics • 31 countries: Europe and CIS • Data sources: World Bank, UNODC, WHO, ESS, Eurostat (2008) • 24 indicators on physical, social and mental aspects of human development

6. IEA 16th World Congress, July 4-8 2011, Tsinghua University, Beijing Results (1): group means

7. IEA 16th World Congress, July 4-8 2011, Tsinghua University, Beijing Results (1): interpretation general pattern of switching priorities in development: social  physical  mental 3 groups of countries with different highlights in development (mental for the most advanced and physical for the most underdeveloped)

8. IEA 16th World Congress, July 4-8 2011, Tsinghua University, Beijing Results (2):quality & quantity

9. IEA 16th World Congress, July 4-8 2011, Tsinghua University, Beijing Comparison with HDI (integral) ‘underperformers’ Russia and Slovakia – apparently ‘overestimated’ according to UN measures Turkey, Bulgaria, Poland – far more favourable according to our measures

10. IEA 16th World Congress, July 4-8 2011, Tsinghua University, Beijing Comparison with HDI (physical) ‘underperformers’ physical

11. IEA 16th World Congress, July 4-8 2011, Tsinghua University, Beijing Comparison with HDI (social) ‘underperformers’

12. IEA 16th World Congress, July 4-8 2011, Tsinghua University, Beijing Comparison with HDI (mental) ‘underperformers’

13. IEA 16th World Congress, July 4-8 2011, Tsinghua University, Beijing SHI Human Development & GDP Russia – way out where it should be according to its economic development Poland, Romania, Turkey – most successful cases given their economic well-being ‘underperformers’ high variance among the Western developed countries

14. IEA 16th World Congress, July 4-8 2011, Tsinghua University, Beijing SHI Human Development & Democracy No direct relationship between democracy and human development for the former Soviet republics – Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Ukraine (apart from CEEs, such as Latvia, Slovakia, Estonia, Poland, etc.)

15. IEA 16th World Congress, July 4-8 2011, Tsinghua University, Beijing Civilizational approach An extent of realization of a human capacity– or human development level – in different societies, is a function of a conformity degree of a particular configuration (social, economic and political) of a society to its civilization, or cultural basis.

16. IEA 16th World Congress, July 4-8 2011, Tsinghua University, Beijing Conclusions • The universal imperative for success in societal development is human being itself and, particularly, its physical, social and mental well-being • 3 distinct groups of countries according to their state of sustainability: • high-risk societies(human regress aggravated by systemic depopulation, i.e. Russia, Ukraine, Belarus) • extensively sustainable societies (moderate human development, yet extended demographic reproduction, i.e. Kazakhstan, Turkey) • intensively sustainable societies (high human development, yet stable demographic reproduction, i.e. Sweden, Switzerland, Norway, Netherlands, etc.) • A certain set of political, economic and social intuitions can either be appropriate (like in most CEE countries) or inappropriate (Russia and CIS) to population’s particular attitudes, values and behavior models, or civilizational belonging. The latter case results in a loss of sustainability and social decay.

17. Thank you for your attention!

18. List of variables

19. Data aggregation • Inverting • Normalizing • Aggregating whereXi – i variable, Yj – normalized variable, wj– weight, Am – m aspect of human development, SHI – Societal Health Index

20. SHI rating of countries

21. SHI components correlation coefficients

22. SHI Human Development & Corruption