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Romania – real convergence on the way to euro adoption Ionut Dumitru

Romania – real convergence on the way to euro adoption Ionut Dumitru President of the Fiscal Council, Professor at Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, and Chief-economist, Raiffeisen Bank Romania June 2014. Eurozone enlargement – current status. Source: European Commission.

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Romania – real convergence on the way to euro adoption Ionut Dumitru

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  1. Romania – real convergence • on the way to euro adoption • Ionut Dumitru • President of the Fiscal Council, • Professor at Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, • and • Chief-economist, Raiffeisen Bank Romania • June 2014

  2. Eurozone enlargement – current status Source: European Commission

  3. Public policies make a difference Source: European Commission

  4. Real convergence: not a one way street Source: European Commission

  5. Euro area enlargement: euro adopted recently only by small countries Euro adoption years: 2007: Slovenia 2008: Malta, Cyprus 2009: Slovakia 2011: Estonia 2014: Latvia Source: European Commission, Eurostat

  6. Euro area enlargement: deep foreign trade integration for Euro area late comers * computed in the year of Euro adoption for new Euro area member countries and in 2013 for non Euro area member countries Source: European Commission, Eurostat, RaiffeisenRESEARCH

  7. Euro area enlargement: high GDP per capita at the moment of euro adoption Source: Eurostat, RaiffeisenRESEARCH

  8. Real convergence in Romania by 2019: some scenarios Real GDP should grow by at least 4% on average per year to be in Scenario 2. Source: European Commission, Eurostat, own computation

  9. Scarce net inflows of foreign capital to private sector, slow recovery pace Note: net inflows of foreign capital in the private sector; portfolio inflows excluded Source: National Bank of Romania, National Institute of Statistics

  10. Much stronger progress in absorption of EU funds is needed • UtilizareaFondurilorStructuralepermite (1) crestereapotentialului de crestereeconomicasi (2) acoperireanecesarului de finantareexterna al tarii Note: Transfers refer both to interim (recognized) payments and advances; most recent data made public by the European Commission; Data refer to 15 April 2014 Source: European Commission

  11. Potential agricol ridicat... • Romania ocupa un loc important in UniuneaEuropeana din punct de vedere al suprafeteloragricolesi al ocuparii in agricultura Sursa: Eurostat, Institutul National de Statsitica , Raiffeisen RESEARCH

  12. ... dar insuficient valorificat - probleme structurale in agricultura • Impact puternic al conditiilorclimatericeasupraproductieiagricole • Segmentareimportanta a exploatatiiloragricole (lipsacadastrului) • Agricultura de subzistentadetine o pondereimportanta • Romania esteimportator net de produseagroalimentare (exclusivcereale) Sursa: Eurostat, Institutul National de Statsitica , Raiffeisen RESEARCH

  13. Crestereaeficienteicheltuielilor de investitiipubliceesteabsolutnecesara Cheltuielipublice de investitii (% din PIB, medieanuala, 2000-2013) Cheltuielipublice de investitii (% din veniturilebugetare, medieanuala, 2000-2013) • Resursefinanciaremarialocatepentrucheltuielilepublice de investitii, dar: • exista un sentiment puternic ca progreselefacute in domeniulinfrastructurii au fostfoartemici • infrastructuraslabaramane o problemaesentialapentru Romania • Necesitateaprioritizariiinvestitiilorsiatrageriisectoruluiprivat (parteneriatepublice-private) Sursa: Eurostat, World Economic Forum, The Global Competitiveness Report 2012-2013

  14. Resurseredusealocatesanatatiisieducatiei Structuracheltuielilorbugetaredupaclasificatiafunctionala, 2012 Sursa: EUROSTAT

  15. Eficientaenergeticascazuta a economiei • Eficientaenergetica a economiei s-a imbunatatit, darramaneredusacomparativ cu celelalteeconomii din UniuneaEuropeana • Crestereaeficienteienergetice a economieipermitecrestereacompetitivitatiiacesteia, inclusivreducereaimporturilor de produseenergetice Sursa: Eurostat , Raiffeisen RESEARCH

  16. Ineficientacompaniilor de stat reprezinta o problemaserioasa • Desicontribuie cu doar circa 7% la valoareaadaugata din economie, companiile de stat contribuie cu circa 24% la totalularieratelor din economie Structura arieratele companiilor din Romania (% din total, decembrie 2012) Sursa: Consiliul Fiscal

  17. Competitivitateaeconomieiesteunarelativscazuta

  18. World Bank Doing Business Report – Ranking (out of 189 countries) Source: World Bank Doing Business 2013-2014 Report

  19. World Economic Forum World Competitiveness Report – Ranking (out of 148 countries) Source: The Global Competitiveness report, World Economic Forum, 2013-2014

  20. World Bank Doing Business Report – Paying taxes, ranking (out of 189 countries) Source: World Bank Doing Business 2013-2014 Report

  21. VAT rate Source: European Commission

  22. Top personal income tax rates Source: European Commission

  23. Top statutory tax rate on corporate income Source: European Commission

  24. Social security contributions Source: European Commission

  25. What employers must spend to pay each net euro to an employee Sursa: Molinari Economic Institute, The Tax Burden of Typical Workers in the EU 27, 2013

  26. Disparitatiregionalefoartemari

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