Turkey 360: Celebrating 40 Years of TUSIAD

1. TURKEY 360: CELEBRATING 40 YEARS OF TUSIAD April 2, 2011

2. Agenda • List of Invitees • Time Frame of Scenarios • Physical Location and Set-up • Scenarios • Concept • Backgrounds • Example • Preparatory Time Frame • Supporting Materials

3. Invitees and Time Frame • Invitees • List of options for each representative • Will provide contact information for invitees once they are selected • Separate list for final panel • Time Frame • Will cover 20 years • From 2013-2033, divided into four five-year intervals (2013, 2018, 2023, 2028)

4. Location and Set-up • Location • To be determined • Set-up • Round table for participants • Position for moderator • “Behind the scenes” area • On-site team to present changes in the scenario (Istanbul) • Off-site team for support (Austin)

5. Scenarios-Concept • Turkey 360 • Turkey’s foreign policy is based on the concept of a 360-degree area of interest • These interests encompass all dimensions of national power—economic, political and military • Propose to create three scenarios built around this concept, examining Turkey’s potential options in the next 20 years • Conclude with a round table discussion to examine the outcomes and decisions of the previous panels

6. Scenario One: Turkey’s Northwest • Background: The scenario focuses on economics and evolves into the consideration of multinational institutions, political relationships and military issues. • Purpose: To examine regional outcomes if current trends in the EU continue. What sorts of relationships will Germany, Russia, Greece and other countries develop and how will Turkey respond? • Suggested Participants: Turkey, Germany, France, Russia, Greece and some of the Balkan countries.

7. Scenario Two: Turkey’s Southeast • Background: The U.S. continues its withdrawal from Iraq. Iran detonates an underground nuclear device. Turkey is the only major power that has working relations with Tehran and Washington. • Purpose: Turkey now finds itself at the center of the first major crisis in which it is a major power. How does it manage this? • Suggested Participants: Turkey, Iran, Iraq, United States, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Russia and Germany/EU.

8. Scenario Three: Turkey’s Northeast • Background: A pro-Russian government is in place in Georgia. Turkey now faces a situation in which access to Azerbaijani energy runs through Russian-controlled territory. A strategy must be devised that (a) guarantees Russian energy supplies in the short term and (b) develops alternative energy supplies in the long term. • Purpose: What are Russia’s intentions? What alternative sources are there? How quickly can they be bought on line? What partners does Turkey need? • Suggested Participants: Turkey, Russia, Azerbaijan, Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United States and an oil company representative. 

9. Mock Scenario “Turkey’s Northeast in the Next 20 Years” • Participants: United States, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Germany/EU and Turkey • Time frame: 2013-2033, divided into four five-year intervals • Each 5-year section is divided into three rounds • In each round, each participant is likely to make at least one move

10. Mock Scenario-Moves • Four types of moves to choose from:  • Diplomatic: Holding meetings, relaying messages, U.N. Security Council activity, etc. • Economic: Investment, subsidization, sanctions, tariffs, embargos, etc. • Military: Military assistance/training, deployments, airstrikes, etc. • Covert: Financial/military support to proxies, subversion, assassination, etc. ** If a covert move is employed, it will be relayed electronically to the moderator • Participants can play all four types in a single turn, do a combination of moves or choose not to exercise a move • Participants can also leave their moves as open-ended strategic gambits – “increasing readiness of the navy” – or specify them as particular tactical moves – “sending USS Enterprise to the Gulf”

11. Mock Scenario SESSION 1: Begins October 2013 Background (Known to all participants before game begins):   • The United States is a few months into a new presidential term and has completed its withdrawal from Iraq • In Bahrain, a political crisis is intensifying following elections held two months prior in which an umbrella Shiite coalition is accusing the Sunni royal family of massive vote-rigging • Iran has been cracking down on simmering Kurdish unrest in the north and preparations have begun for elections to be held later in the year. • In Iraq, militant activity is on the decline and investors from Europe, the United States, China and Russia are competing for major oil projects in the south.

12. Mock Scenario ROUND I • STARTING POINT [Revealed by moderator at start of session]: U.S., European and Russian seismologists have confirmed that Iran has successfully detonated a nuclear device. Israeli and U.S. intelligence estimates indicate Iran is likely at least two years away from being able to weaponize a device. • MOVES: All participants in the first round will submit their first move(s) to the moderator simultaneously. (Examples on handout) • MODERATOR: A U.N. Security Council meeting is held, and all permanent members vote yes to a diplomatic censure against Iran, demanding that Iran allow in IAEA inspectors and come forward with information regarding its development of a weaponized device. Sanctions against Iran are intensified, but no other punitive actions are specified. • NEW DEVELOPMENT [Introduced by moderator]: Sanctions on Iranian gasoline supply at this point are likely to have little impact, as China has completed upgrading Iran’s main refineries, raising gasoline output by 60 percent.

13. Mock Scenario ROUND II • MOVES: In the second round, each participant takes turns making moves. The moderator chooses the order. Example: (expanded on handout) • United States • Military: Begins a war game with Qatar/UAE/Oman/Saudi Arabia in the Persian Gulf and asks Turkey for use of Izmir in airstrikes. • Diplomatic: (moderator asks the U.S. to respond to the Iranian offer of a new Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty conference): • Rejects the new Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty idea, asks the IAEA to go into Iran to verify the status of its reactors • Covert: U.S. chooses to mount an intelligence operation in Iran to find out how quickly Iran can weaponize the nuclear device and begins funding massive campaign for internal destabilization • END OF SESSION 1

14. Mock Scenario ROUND I of SESSION 2: • MODERATOR: Bahrain devolves into urban insurgency, Saudi Arabia is locked down. Syria extends peace offering to Israel in exchange for deal on Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, recognition of Syrian influence, deal on Golan Heights. • MOVES: (More on handout) • United States • Military: U.S. is building up at Manas air base with Russian cooperation. Deploys another aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf • Diplomatic/Covert: Offers Turkey a “Grand Bargain” – It can take out Kurdistan in Iraq and dominate all of Iraq (including energy) if it cooperates in military campaign against Iran.

15. Mock Scenario ROUND 2 of SESSION 2 • MODERATOR: Tehran withdraws from Iraq and Bahrain, placates Ankara and Saudi Arabia. Tehran launches a long-range missile that flies over Tel Aviv and splashes into the Mediterranean off the Tel Aviv beaches. • U.S. learns that its assessment of Iran’s weaponization program was relying heavily on information from a recently exposed double-agent of the Iranians. Tehran will likely have a nuclear weapons capability by the end of the round. • Moderator offers U.S. choice: You know Iran is close to having a nuclear bomb, Israel is going to attack Iran because of the rocket test. What do you do? Let Israel attack Iran itself or take part in military campaign to mitigate disruption to Strait of Hormuz?

16. Preparatory Time Frame • June 1—Invitees locked in • September 1—Scenarios completed and locked in • September 10—Material distributed to participants • September 7-20—Preparatory one-on-one phone calls with participants • October 4—One-day group preparation in Istanbul with teleconference if needed • October 5-6—TUSIAD program

17. Supporting Materials • Technology • Computers/Laptops • Internet Connection • Printers • Power Outlets • Projector and Screen • Paper Materials • Briefing Books • Name/Country Placards

18. Final Panel Recommendations: Turkey: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan United States: Jim Webb or Mitt Romney Russia: Igor Ivanov Germany: Guido Westerwelle Iran: Ali Larijani or Ali Akbar Rafsanjani Saudi Arabia: Turki Al-Faisal