Foresight Land Use Futures Professor Mark Tewdwr-Jones Lead Expert Group

1. Foresight Land Use FuturesProfessor Mark Tewdwr-JonesLead Expert Group

2. Foresight Land Use Futures Project • Foresight is undertaking a major project on the future of land use in the UK. • It aims to help government and other policy makers to understand whether existing land use patterns and practices are fit for the future: • What land use challenges could the UK face? • Will existing structures and mechanisms help us meet these challenges? • What opportunities are there to use and manage land differently now so that UK society continues to enjoy a good quality of life in the future • Working with leading academics the project team will assemble the latest evidence and research on land use topics and develop scenarios for 2060 to produce insights on the long-term prospects for land use. • The project covers urban and rural land and is sponsored by both the environment and planning departments

3. What types of questions will it explore? • What are the major global and national drivers of change? • Is the "land system" sufficiently resilient and flexible? • Are there key decisions about land use which should be taken in the short-term with the benefit of new insights? • Could existing land use practices lead to unintended consequences? • How could behaviours and attitudes towards land change? • What developments in science and technology could affect land use?

4. Land Use Futures Project: Process Diagram

5. Spatial and proportional patterns of land use and land cover Present and future use of "land" below ground Land use and soil resource and carbon sequestration- Land use and air quality Land use and water resource and quality Relationship between land use and water management Relationship between land use and ground water quality Relationship between land use and biodiversity Land use and state of the natural environment Land use and waste management Land use and the coastal zone Land use and future of forestry Land use and the uplands Societal culture and attitudes about land, preferences and perceptions Land and space - preferences and ownership- Land use and planning Land use and existing policy commitments Land ownership patterns Designations and protections Land use, the market and other institutions Land use and decision-making- Land use and the political economy Land use and legal frameworks The future of housing and homes Land use and the future of cities Land use and the future of work The future of transport and infrastructure Land use logistics and infrastructure Land use and energy The future of recreation and tourism Land use and the future of mining and quarrying Land use and agricultural patterns Agriculture - new technologies management techniques Role of land use planning in creating communities and social cohesion Land use and climate change mitigation and adaptation Land use, health and wellbeing Land use and disease (including animal, plant and human) Evidence base – papers to be published in November:

6. Emerging cross-cutting opportunities • Governance – managing land and key actors to balance tensions in demand and supply • Resilience – planning for uncertainties (e.g. for climate change, flooding, population) • Multifunctionality – increasing the net benefit for society from finite resource • Valuation – analysing approaches to valuing land services and understanding value of land for future generations • Use of space – analysis of impacts of physical land patterns change • Market failures – existing failures which are storing up long-term problems • Technology – technological changes which could significantly affect land use and/or help mediate tensions between demand and supply

7. Analysis of “critical issues” • Critical vulnerabilities in the land system • Critical geographical “hot spots” • Critical land use policy dilemmas • Critical uncertainties affecting land use

8. Findings to be reported in January 2010 • 40-50 papers on land use topics (such as the future of housing) authored by leading academics to be published in the Land Use Policy Journal • Synthesis report of key findings • A plan to take forward findings with commitments to action (including recommendations for further research) • Scenarios with underpinning data sets and assumptions • Diagrammatical representations of the “land system” which illustrate the interconnected nature of land activities and functions • Find out more: www.foresight.gov.uk, nicola.o’connor@dius.gsi.gov.uk