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Analytics for Homicides St. Louis City

Group D Members: Jenny Brunnert Lamont Davis Lucas Matecki Ji Zhang. Analytics for Homicides St. Louis City. Business Intelligence Predictions. Objective.

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Analytics for Homicides St. Louis City

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  1. Group D Members: Jenny BrunnertLamont DavisLucas MateckiJi Zhang Analytics for Homicides St. Louis City Business Intelligence Predictions

  2. Objective • Our goal is to predict the homicide rate in the St. Louis City area for 2013. We intend to use data sets and statistical techniques as tools to assist in our prediction.

  3. Homicide Definition • “The killing of one human being by another” • Justifiable Homicide • Authorized by law and not punishable • Death sentence or soldier carrying out duties • Excusable Homicide • Killer was to at fault to some extent, though punishment reduced • Fatality due to a provoked fight • Criminal Homicide • Not justifiable or excusable • Murder or Manslaughter

  4. Top 10 Most Dangerous Cities

  5. Introduction • According to the FBI 2011 data results, St. Louis is currently ranked the 3rd dangerous city in America when referring to crime. • Violent crimes per 1,000: 18.6 • Population: 320,454 • 58th largest city in U.S. • 79 Neighborhoods • Murder, Robbery and Aggravated Assault ranked highest in nation

  6. 2010 Compared to 2013 Total Crime Incidents: 29,947 Property Crime: 22,336 Violent Crime: 7,104 Total Crime Incidents: 34,935 Property Crime: 27, 324 Violent Crime: 6,205

  7. Homicide in 2013

  8. Analysis Approach Collecting data Find the factors Trend Two Ways of Analysis Predict the Homicide in 2013 Data Analysis

  9. What factors might impact the rates? • Population • Sex • Race • Age • Unemployment • Education • Gang Activity • Gun accessibility • Drug Trade

  10. Population • From 1980 to 2008… • 57.7% of homicides occurred in cities with a population of 100,000 or more • In cities with 1 million or more, the homicide rate decreased from 35.5 homicides per 100,000 residents (1991) to 11.9 per 100,000 residents (2008) in the U.S.

  11. Sex • From 1980 to 2008… • 77% of homicide victims are male • For males, the homicide rate (11.6 per 100,000) is 3 times higher than that of females (3.4 per 100,000)

  12. Race • From 1980 to 2008 Data shows that African-American has seemingly higher rates • The victim rate (27.8 per 100,000) • The homicide rate (19.6 per 100,000)

  13. Age • From 1980 to 2008… • 53.2% of murder victims and 65.5% of offenders were between age 18-34 • The homicide rate for ages 18 – 24 reaches 17.1 victims per every 100,000, while the rate per every 100,000 offenders peaks at 29.3

  14. Unemployment • A study of homicide in eight major cities in the United States shows that when employment declined, homicide rates increased, and when employment increased homicide rates dropped.

  15. Education • Connected with murder, assault, and motor vehicle theft. • Research shows that education reduces crime. “By raising earnings, education raises the opportunity cost of crime and the cost of time spent in prison. ”

  16. Unpredictable Factors • Gang Activity (from 1993 through 2003) • Gangs are often responsible for the firearms violent incidents, especially those incidents involving youths. • Gun accessibility (2009) • According to FBI report, firearms were used in 67.1% of the homicides. Research shows that firearm availability is positively associated with homicide rates. • Drug Trade • “Drug markets are often associated with violent offenses, particularly homicides. ” The competition for customers and drug markets can cause homicide.

  17. Prediction from data Total Murder #: 118

  18. Prediction from data • A combination of black people, male rate, and high school graduation rate has the smallest standard error.

  19. Prediction from data Total Murder #: 82 Y= 0.000856759Xa+3.278571742Xb-3.591220139Xc

  20. Prediction from research • Downward trend in crime from 2010 • Looking at crime rate statistics, higher reports of homicides will fall in downtown cities of St. Louis • Baden • Walnut Park East • While several factors play a significant role to affect the numbers of homicides • Budget cuts create lower number of police force and security

  21. Conclusion Any Questions?

  22. Sources • http://nationalparalegal.edu/public_documents/courseware_asp_files/criminalLaw/homicide/Definition.asp • http://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-25-most-dangerous-cities-in-america.html?page=all • http://247wallst.com/2012/06/11/the-most-dangerous-cities-in-america-2/3/ • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_population • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neighborhoods_of_St._Louis • http://www.cityrating.com/crime-statistics/missouri/st-louis.html#.UT0e_n5QH60

  23. http://maps.stlouisco.com/police/index.html • http://www.rutgerscps.org/docs/murderrisks.pdf • http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/content/pub/pdf/htus8008.pdf • http://www.rutgerscps.org/docs/murderrisks.pdf

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