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WG Session 1 - DET Infrastructure: Ensemble configuration and Initial Perturbations

WG Session 1 - DET Infrastructure: Ensemble configuration and Initial Perturbations. What other systems should we consider in our initial investigation? Who are the contacts for those systems?

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WG Session 1 - DET Infrastructure: Ensemble configuration and Initial Perturbations

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  1. WG Session 1 - DET Infrastructure:Ensemble configuration and Initial Perturbations • What other systems should we consider in our initial investigation? Who are the contacts for those systems? • Can the group highlight the similarities and differences between how the current ensemble systems are engineered? • How should the infrastructure be organized to accommodate testing of various IC and LBC perturbation approaches? • DET is considering collaborating with the GSI task for ICs and for growing perturbations. Is this a good approach? Are there other recommendations we should consider for future years? • Do you see a need for DET to have realtime capability? Is so, where? • How do we make sure tech transfer to operations is smooth? • How much can we leverage off NUOPC efforts for determining how to generalize our system interface? • Others?

  2. WG Session 1 - DET Infrastructure:Model-related uncertainty and Statistical Post-processing • How can we have a stochastic forcing that is more generalized for use with several model cores? • What methods and metrics should be used to separate the uncertainty generated by initial perturbations versus model core uncertainty? • Are there suggestions for how to execute core interchangability(i.e. ARW, NMM-e, NMM-b initially but others in the future)? • Do you see a need for DET to have realtime capability? Is so, where? • How much can we leverage off NUOPC efforts for determining how to generalize our system interface? • How do we make sure tech transfer to operations is possible? • Others?

  3. WG Session 1 - DET Infrastructure:Ensemble and Probabilistic products and Verification • How to insure plug-and-play and portability? • Do you see a need for DET to have realtime capability? Is so, where? • What different metrics would you suggest for different evaluation plans? (please give evaluation goal and metric) • How to we interface with AWIPS II development. • Should we think beyond that to web-based displays for the research community? • How should we include social scientists in this portion of the testbed? • How do we ensure applicability/acceptability to user groups? • Do we need to be discussing the inclusion of MET (or MET-like capability) in AWIPS II? • How do we make sure tech transfer to operations is possible? • Other?

  4. WG Session 2 – Community Methods:Ensemble configuration and Initial Perturbations • What other systems should we consider in our initial investigation? Who are the contacts for those systems?(repeat question from first WG just in case the WG members has changed and others would like to contribute their suggestions) • Does the community (research and operations) feel that they might want to adopt/use the DET Ensemble Configuration and Initial Perturbations modules? If so, what will it take to facilitate this? • What options for IC and LBC perturbations would the community suggest we focus on first for testing? • How can DET feedback into NUOPC and the Probabilistic Prediction Advancement Committee (PPAC), including the PPAC Business Case? • How much rigorous end-to-end testing is required vs. evaluation of individual components? • Other?

  5. WG Session 2 – Community Methods:Model-related uncertainty and Statistical Post-processing • Is there clear guidance on which to test first: single model with physics perturbations or multi-model? • How do we identify a list of candidate methods to consider for testing? • What test data should we consider for Statistical Post-Processing? • How can DET feedback into NUOPC and the Probabilistic Prediction Advancement Committee (PPAC), including the PPAC Business Case? • How much rigorous end-to-end testing is required vs. evaluation of individual components? • Other?

  6. WG Session 2 – Community Methods:Ensemble and Probabilistic products and Verification • Prioritized list of ensemble-relevant verification products • Prioritized list of ensemble-relevant forecast products • Prioritized list of display algorithms • How to develop and solicit new display possibilities? (Ensemble Products Workshop II?) • How should we filter through ideas provided by other workshops (i.e., RAL Verification Workshop 11/2010; WMO Verification tutorials; others?) • What analysis fields and/or observation data should we consider for verification? • What different metrics would you suggest for different evaluation plans? (please give evaluation goal and metric) (repeated in case others have joined the group) • How can DET feedback into NUOPC and the Probabilistic Prediction Advancement Committee (PPAC), including the PPAC Business Case? • Other?

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