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HI-RES GRIDDED MOS 6-H QPF GUIDANCE

HI-RES GRIDDED MOS 6-H QPF GUIDANCE. JESS CHARBA FRED SAMPLATSKY METEOROLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT LABORATORY OST / NWS / NOAA. Details = http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/154176.pdf. OUTLINE. QPF PRODUCTS STATISTICAL MODEL CASE STUDIES QPF COMPARATIVE PERFORMANCE

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HI-RES GRIDDED MOS 6-H QPF GUIDANCE

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  1. HI-RES GRIDDED MOS 6-H QPF GUIDANCE JESS CHARBA FRED SAMPLATSKY METEOROLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT LABORATORY OST / NWS / NOAA Details =http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/154176.pdf

  2. OUTLINE QPF PRODUCTS STATISTICAL MODEL CASE STUDIES QPF COMPARATIVE PERFORMANCE STATUS AND IMPLEMENTATION PLANS CONCLUSIONS

  3. QPF PRODUCTS 6- & 12-H QPFS TO 156 HRS / POP TO 192 HRS PROBABILITY FOR EIGHT 6-H PRECIP CATEGORIES (≥ 0.01 ” - ≥ 2.00 ”) EXPECTED 6-H PRECIP AMT CATEGORICAL 6-H PRECIP AMT CONTINUOUS 6- &12-H PRECIP AMT (6-H MAX = 4.7 ”) ISSUED TWICE PER DAY USE RFC STAGE III PRECIP ESTS. (QC’D AT MDL) 4-KM (NATIVE) GRID CONUS COVERAGE

  4. STATISTICAL MODEL REGIONALIZED REGRESSION EQUATIONS FOR 4-KM GRID MULTIPLE PREDICTOR INPUTS REGIONS

  5. PREDICTOR INPUTS GFS MODEL OUTPUT HI-RES PRECIP CLIMATOLOGIES AND TOPOGRAPGY SPECIAL “INTERACTIVE” PREDICTORS INJECT HI-RES TOPO-CLIMATE INPUT INTO QPFS

  6. 2 4 7 10 12 13 3 9 1 5 6 8 11 DISCRETE AND OVERLAPPING REGIONS

  7. DISCRETE REGIONS OVERLAPPING REGIONS & QPF WEIGHTING 36-H PROB (%) ≥ 0.10 ” 6-H PERIOD ENDING 00Z 30 JAN 2008

  8. FORECAST PERFORMANCE 6-H QPF CASE STUDIES FROM 2008 (INDEP)

  9. OBS PRECIP (”) FCST PRECIP (”) 12 H 84 H 6-H PERIOD ENDING 00Z 05 JAN 2008

  10. OBS PRECIP (”) FCST PROB (%) 12 H; ≥ 0.50 ” 84 H; ≥ 1.00 ” 6-H PERIOD ENDING 00Z 05 JAN 2008

  11. OBS PRECIP (”) FCST PRECIP (”) 18 H 42 H 6-H PERIOD ENDING 06Z 19 MAR 2008

  12. OBS PRECIP (”) FCST PROB (%) 18 H; ≥ 0.50 ” 42 H; ≥ 1.00 ” 6-H PERIOD ENDING 06Z 19 MAR 2008

  13. OBS PRECIP (”) FCST PRECIP (”) 24 H 72 H HUR. IKE 6-H PERIOD ENDING 12Z 13 SEP 2008

  14. FORECAST PERFORMANCE 6-H QPF COMPARATIVE SCORES FROM 2007-08 COOL SEASON (INDEP)

  15. DAY 1 2007-08 COOL SEASON

  16. DAY 3 2007-08 COOL SEASON

  17. DAY 2 2007-08 COOL SEASON

  18. STATUS AND IMPLEMENTATION PLANS EXPERIMENTAL QPFS PRODUCED IN REAL TIME SINCE JUNE 2008 PLAN IS TO REPLACE/SUPPLEMENT GRIDDED MOS QPFS IN NDGD AROUND JAN 2010

  19. CONCLUSIONS HRMOS WILL PROVIDE IMPROVED QPF GUIDANCE OVER CONUS HRMOS QPFS WILL REPLACE & SUPPLEMENT NDGD GRIDDED MOS QPFS IN NEAR FUTURE

  20. THE END

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