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Unemployment

Labor Economics Series. Unemployment. Unemployment. Supply and Demand Model. Supply - Demand Model. Wage. D’. S’. Supply. $ 15. E. $ 10. Demand. Unemployment = 4. 3. 5. 7. Employment. Supply Demand Model.

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Unemployment

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  1. Labor Economics Series Unemployment Unemployment

  2. Supply and Demand Model

  3. Supply - Demand Model Wage D’ S’ Supply $ 15 E $ 10 Demand Unemployment = 4 3 5 7 Employment

  4. Supply Demand Model • Firm membayar upah yang lebih tinggi dari tingkat equilibrium sehingga terjadi excess supply TK. • Tingkat upah bersifat “sticky” sehingga tidak dapat diatur menuju tingkat upah equilibrium.

  5. Ketenagakerjaan Indonesia

  6. Pengangguran di Indonesia (Persen)

  7. Types of Unemployment

  8. Frictional Unemployment Frictional unemployment arises because both workers and firms need time to alocate each other and to digest the information about the value of the the job match.

  9. Frictional Unemployment Bukan merupakan permasalahan utama dalam perekonomian IMBALANCE LABOR SUPPLY & LABOR DEMAND

  10. Frictional Unemployment Solusi : • Menyediakan informasi kesempatan kerja bagi TK. • Menyediakan informasi pencari kerja bagi perusahaan. KATALISATOR PASAR KERJA

  11. Structural Unemployment • Imbalance between Labor Supply and Labor Demand • The kinds of persons looking for work do not “fit” the jobs available THE REAL PROBLEM IS SKILL

  12. Structural Unemployment Solusi : Peningkatan kualitas sumber daya manusia PENDIDIKAN

  13. Cyclical Unemployment Cyclical unemployment arises because of the economy has moved into a recession

  14. Cyclical Unemployment

  15. Cyclical Unemployment To reduce cyclical unemployment, Government will have to stimulate aggregate demand and reestablish market equilibrium at the sticky wage

  16. Unemployment Data

  17. PENGANGGUR TERBUKA MENURUT PULAU dan JENIS KELAMIN, TAHUN 2006

  18. PENGANGGUR TERBUKA MENURUT PULAU dan DESA KOTA, TAHUN 2005

  19. PENGANGGUR TERBUKA MENURUT KATEGORI PENGANGUR DAN JENIS KELAMIN, TAHUN 2005

  20. PENGANGGUR TERBUKA MENURUT PENDIDIKANdan JENIS KELAMIN, TAHUN 2005

  21. UNEMPLOYMENT RATES BY EDUCATIONUSA 1970 -2002

  22. WORLD UNEMPLOYMENT MAP

  23. The Steady-State Rate ofUnemployment

  24. The Steady-State Rate of Unemployment l probability of losing a job Job loser ( l x E ) Employed ( E worker) Unemployed ( U wokers) h probability of finding a job Job finders ( h x U )

  25. The Steady-State Rate of Unemployment Long-run equilibrium  unemployment rate konstan, sehingga dalam kondisi steady-state : l E = h U (Persamaan 1)

  26. The Steady-State Rate of Unemployment Labor Force (LF) terdiri dari employed dan unemployed, maka LF = E + U (Persamaan 2)

  27. The Steady-State Rate of Unemployment Subtitusi Persamaan 1 & 2 : l (LF – U) = h U (Persamaan 3)

  28. The Steady-State Rate of Unemployment Unemployment Rate : The Natural Rate of Unemployment

  29. The Steady-State Rate of Unemployment Contoh : probabilitas lose jobs 0,01 dan probabilitas find jobs 0,1 ; maka unemployment rate =

  30. The Steady-State Rate of UnemploymentJoseph Ritter : Labor Market Dynamics 1.8 Million Employed Unemployed 119.2 Million 8.9 Million 2.0 Million 3.2 Million 1.7 Million 1.5 Million 3.0 Million Out of Labor Force 65.2 Million

  31. The Wage Offer Distribution

  32. The Wage Offer Distribution • Asumsi : TK akan selalu mencari perkerjaan yang lebih baik. • The wage offer distribution menggambarkan distribusi frekuensi dari berbagai kesempatan kerja untuk unemployed worker di labor market.

  33. The Wage Offer Distribution • Trade off : semakin lama mencari pekerjaan yang lebih baik, semakin besar kesempatan mendapat gaji lebih tinggi dan semakin besar biaya mencari kerja.

  34. The Wage Offer Distribution Kesempatan mendapat perkerjaan lebih besar Frequency $ 5 $8 $ 22 $ 25 Wage

  35. The Asking Wage

  36. The Asking Wage • Tingkat upah yang menentukan unemployed worker untuk menerima atau menolak tawaran kerja. • Asking wage yang rendah menyebabkan cepat mendapatkan kerja, demikian sebaliknya.

  37. The Asking Wage • Marginal Cost (MC) semakin tinggi karena merupakan perpaduan antara direct cost (misal : transportasi) dan opportunity cost karena berpindah firm. • Marginal Revenue merupakan marginal gain dari better job.

  38. The Determination of The Asking Wage The Determination of The Asking Wage MR > MC Dollars MC MR < MC Asking Wage MR Wage offer at hand $10 $ 20

  39. The Wage Curve

  40. The Wage Curve ? Blanchflower & Oswald : semakin tinggi unemployment rate maka upah cenderung semakin rendah

  41. ...Semakin tinggi unemployment rate maka upah cenderung semakin rendah karena... Wage A WA B WB UB UA Unemployment Rate

  42. The Phillips Curve

  43. The Phillips Curve Diperkenalkan : W.H. Phillips (1958) tentang negative correlation antara tingkat inflasi dan tingkat penganguran di Inggris periode 1861-1957

  44. The Phillips Curve Expansionary Policy sehingga inflasi naik dan pengangguran turun.. Labor sadar upah tidak cukup sehingga asking wage dan pengangguran kembali ke posisi semula namun inflasi tetap... Perekonomian konstan sehingga asking wage konstan Long run phillips curve Inflasi B 7 C A 0 3 5 Unemployment Rate

  45. The Phillips Curve

  46. Terima kasih...

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