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Central Valley Water Transfers Southern California Water Dialogue

Central Valley Water Transfers Southern California Water Dialogue. Steven P. Hirsch Transfer & Exchanges Program Manager Metropolitan Water District September 28, 2005. Metropolitan Water District. Factors Affecting Transfer Needs Service area demands

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Central Valley Water Transfers Southern California Water Dialogue

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  1. Central Valley Water TransfersSouthern California Water Dialogue Steven P. Hirsch Transfer & Exchanges Program Manager Metropolitan Water District September 28, 2005

  2. Metropolitan Water District Factors Affecting Transfer Needs • Service area demands • Availability of member’s local supplies • Availability of CRA and SWP supplies

  3. Demands on Metropolitan

  4. Colorado River Aqueduct Supplies

  5. State Water Project Supplies

  6. Surplus/Shortage Outcomes 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 Acre-feet -500,000 -1,000,000 -1,500,000 5% 0% 100% 94% 88% 78% 73% 62% 57% 42% 26% 21% 10% 83% 68% 52% 47% 36% 31% 16% Exceedence Probability

  7. North Kern& Mojave Demo Kern Delta Prop. 13 Programs (start-up) 3.0 San Bernardino Valley DiamondValley Lake Greater than 10x Increase 2.0 SemitropicCastaic & PerrisNo. Las Posas ArvinEdison Millions Acre-Feet 1.0 Desert /Coachella Lake MathewsLake Skinner ’90 ’95 ’00 ’05 Year Metropolitan’s Storage Capacity

  8. Public Affairs Program DVL Take Take from Semitropic, Arvin-Ed. Cut REPL Deliveries Contractual GW Take Take from Monterey Res. Extraordinary Conservation Call Water Transfer - Options Contracts Buy Spot Water Allocation Plan Shortage Actions Shortage Stages Actions 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Potential Simultaneous Actions

  9. Western Canal W.D. GCID Richvale I.D. Placer County Water Agency Sac. Valley SettlementContractors 11 Districts 146,230 AF 2003 Sacramento Valley Water Transfers February Call • 76,232 AF March Call • 49,998 AF May Call • No call for water • 20,000 AF

  10. Western Canal W.D. GCID Richvale I.D. 3 Districts 125,000 AF 2005 Sacramento Valley Water Transfers April Call w/ option to Extend to May Call

  11. Value of a Late Call:2005 Transfers May 2 Second Call Date April 1 Initial Call Date Jan 15 Purchase Options 100 80 • Foregooption? • Exercise option? 60 NorCal precipitation (%) • Forego option? • Exercise option? • Extend option? 40 20 0 January February March April May Average Northern California Precipitation1921-2003 (Oct – Sept)

  12. 1,500,000 1,000,000 March 2005 500,000 February 2005 0 Acre-feet October/November 2004 -500,000 -1,000,000 -1,500,000 5% 0% 100% 94% 88% 83% 78% 73% 68% 62% 57% 52% 47% 42% 36% 31% 26% 21% 16% 10% Exceedence Probability Value of a Late Call (Con’t)

  13. Summary • MWD’s storage and conservation investments reduce need for transfers • Transfers are not needed every year • Transfers = insurance against drought • Prefer options with late call dates • Transfers are not “risk free” • Transfers require hard work

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