Columbia University Center for Hazards and Risk Research

1. Columbia UniversityCenter forHazards and Risk Research Overview CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop October 25-26, 2001

2. Center for Hazards and Risk Research • Organized April 2001 • Part of Columbia Earth Institute • Based at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory • Partners include The Wharton School, Bogazici University, London School of Economics, others. CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop

3. Organizing Themes for Hazard and Risk Studies • Science in service of Sustainable International Development • Reducing Vulnerability / Building Resiliency • Methods and Mechanisms of Risk Assessment and Risk Management • Technological and social measures of risk • Multiple Hazards, Aggregate Risk • Interactions, triggers, and amplification • Human activities that generate risk CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop

4. Organizing Themes for Hazard and Risk Studies (cont.) • Community Knowledge System • Assessments of Predictive Skill in S&T • Assessment and communication of risk • Assessment and communication of uncertainty • Understanding decision strategies and mechanisms, and their inputs and outcomes • Feedbacks for integrated studies • Appropriate use of technology CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop

5. “Hazard” is a process which has potential human impacts. “Risk” is a function of both “hazard” and accumulated human assets. “Concentration of assets” contributes to quantitative measures of risk. What Is the relationship between “Hazard” and “Risk”? Source: USGS, CIESIN CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop

6. Risk is a Cultural Quantity • Different societies have different asset exposures • System effects can amplify the evaluation of risk • The study of risk mixes hazards (physical science) and vulnerability (engineering, social science) CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop

7. Asset census and Asset fragility Integration over many scales Complexities due to interdependencies not included Not normative Measured in replacement and repair costs (or loss of use) Useful for cost-benefit analysis Risk transference as an economic cost Measures social and cultural disruptions Measured in risk tolerance in relation to a self-defined state of well being Highly normative Social and cultural interdependencies critical Useful for choice analysis Issues of risk transference harder to quantify, and hinge on moral arguments Technical Risk vs. Social Risk CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop

8. Prediction and Predictability • New science is available to improve predictability of events and their impacts • New science is both empirical and model-based CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop

9. Stress ‘climate’ is a manifestation of plate tectonics, but simple models of deformation are surprisingly good at predicting seismicity. (source: J. Deng, Ph.D. Thesis 1996, Columbia) CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop

10. Research Model Basic Research Physical Science/Engineering Social Science Integrated Research Risk Assessment Risk Management Extension/ Applications CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop

11. Source: K. Boyer CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop

12. Illustration: K. Boyer CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop

13. Center Programmatic Components • Basic Disciplinary Research • Integrated Research • Research Extension • Training Extension • Graduate and Other Formal Education CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop

14. Improving Resilience • Emergency Response • Hardening Built Environment • Hardening Social Constructs • Political • Economic • Cultural • Alternative Development Paths • Responsible Planning • Altered States CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop

15. Single Hazard Model Hazard Impact Risk Action Knowledge areas incomplete, research required CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop

16. Single Hazard Model Tectonic Stress Model Fracture Mechanics Earthquake Process Model Fault Topology Event Genesis Wave Propagation Model Anelastic structure Near-surface structure CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop

17. Single Hazard Model Ground Motion Structural Design Impact Process Model (Built Environment) Soil-Structure Interactions Structure Dynamics Primary and Secondary System Response CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop

18. Single Hazard Model Categorization Tolerance Levels Risk and Risk Perception Asset Concentrations (space and time) Resiliency CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop

19. Hazard Hazard Hazard Impact Impact Impact Risk Risk Risk Action Action Action Multiple Hazard Model(1st Generation) CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop

20. Hazard Impact Risk Hazard Impact Risk Action Hazard Impact Risk Multiple Hazard Model(2nd Generation) CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop

21. Hazard Impact Risk Action Hazard Impact Risk Integrated Hazard System Integrated Impact System Multiple Hazard Model(3rd Generation) Integrated Risk System CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop

22. Improving Resilience:Knowledge System Approach • “Product” orientation widely used to match scientific output to end-user needs. • Product design at provider level often assumes end-user knowledge is capped. • Elevating community knowledge base will produce higher-level outcomes • User-mediated science and technology outputs CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop

23. Hazard Impact Risk Hazard Impact Risk Third Generation Multiple Hazard+ Information Technology Action Provider/User Community Interaction Model Integrated Hazard System Integrated Impact System CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop

24. Community Interaction Model • Links observational, modeling, simulation, prediction science • Links science to technology (engineering solutions) • Links solutions to risk management community • If near-real-time, links response and emergency management communities. CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop

25. Community Feedback Loops • Feedback between sectors important for modulating basic S&T output. • Knowledge base kept high by combination of push and interactive technologies. • Heightened curiosity hastens application of new S&T advances in the field. • Move beyond virtual knowledge product generation. CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop

26. IT Requirements for Implementation • Spatial data integration • Monitoring and near-real-time data assimilation of time series • Data QC, preliminary analysis, archiving, management for research and products • Physical descriptions: Characterizations and models • Modeling and simulation codes and results • Scenario building, description, and dissemination • Data integration from other components • Servicing decision pathways and community interactions • Mitigation planning • Emergency response • Capturing feedbacks • Formal and informal education • Community outreach • Products (push, interactive, user-mediated) CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop

27. Education and Outreach • Certificate and Degree Programs • Student and investigator exchange • Integrated Project studios • Professional awareness • Public/political awareness • Identifying stakeholders • Links with digital media. CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop

28. Highlights: TurkeyIncreased earthquake risk in Istanbul • The 1999 Earthquake Sequence in Northwest Turkey points to the high likelihood of even more damaging earthquakes in the Marmara Sea (Istanbul) region, during the next few decades. • The Center for Disaster Management (CENDIM) of Bogazici University and Columbia are initiating an alliance in research and education dealing with earthquake hazard risk reduction. Will extend Columbia’s current scientific work in the Marmara region and expand into structural and socio-economic risk assessment and risk management activity. CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop

29. From:Parsons, Tom, Toda, Shinji, Stein, Ross S., Barka, Aykut, Dieterich, James H., Heightened Odds of Large Earthquakes Near Istanbul: An Interaction-Based Probability Calculation Science 2000 288: 661-665 CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop

30. Fig. 1. (A) Stress change caused by earthquakes since 1900. Shown are the maximum Coulomb stress changes between 0 and 20 km depth on optimally oriented vertical strike-slip faults (44). The assumed friction coefficient is 0.2, as has been found for strike-slip faults with large cumulative slip (45, 46). A 100-bar deviatoric tectonic stress with compression oriented N55°W (47) is used, under which optimally oriented right-lateral faults strike E-W except along the rupture surface. The 1993 to July 1999 seismicity recorded since installation of IZINET (7) has uniform coverage over the region shown. Calculated stress increases are associated with heightened seismicity rates and with the future epicenter of the 17 August 1999 Izmit earthquake (indicated by star); sites of decreased stress exhibit low seismicity. (B) Izmit aftershocks are associated with stress increases caused by the main rupture [first 12 days from IZINET (7)], such as the Yalova cluster southeast of "Y," and the occurrence of the 12 November 1999 Düzce earthquake. Faults: Y, Yalova; P, Prince's Islands; M, Marmara; I, Izmit. From:Parsons, Tom, Toda, Shinji, Stein, Ross S., Barka, Aykut, Dieterich, James H., Heightened Odds of Large Earthquakes Near Istanbul: An Interaction-Based Probability Calculation Science 2000 288: 661-665 CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop

31. From:Parsons, Tom, Toda, Shinji, Stein, Ross S., Barka, Aykut, Dieterich, James H., Heightened Odds of Large Earthquakes Near Istanbul: An Interaction-Based Probability Calculation Science 2000 288: 661-665 Figure 4. (A) Observed and modeled transient response to stress transfer. The 13 M 6.8 North Anatolian earthquakes for which the stress at the future epicenter was increased by 0.5 bars are plotted as a function of time. The earthquake rate decays as t-1 in a manner identical to aftershocks, as predicted by (29-32). (B) Calculated probability of a M 7 earthquake (equivalent to MMI VIII shaking in greater Istanbul) as a function of time. The probability on each of three faults is summed (43). The large but decaying probability increase is caused by the 17 August 1999 Izmit earthquake. "Background” tracks the probability from earthquake renewal; "interaction" includes renewal and stress transfer. Light blue curve gives the probability had the Izmit earthquake not occurred. CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop