Cliff Brewis Vice President Operations Dodge Data & Analytics

1. Cliff Brewis Vice President Operations Dodge Data & Analytics

2. U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook The U.S. economy has performed in a conservative range since the recession. Do we expect that to change? • GDP Pattern: • History Forecast • 20132014 2015 2016 2017 • +1.7% +2.4% +2.6% +1.6% +2.3% • Significance of Employment Growth and Productivity • Trump Impact: • Stimulate the Economy: • Deregulation • Affordable Care Act • Tax Cuts • Infrastructure • Area of Concern : • Trade War: Mexico & China • Budget Deficit • Distractions

3. U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook For consumption to continue and employment growth to slow gradually, wages need to increase.

4. U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook Increased Federal spending already locked in • Fixing America’s Surface Transportation (FAST) Act • Enacted on December 4. • $305 billion over a five-year period – highways, $230 bil.; • public transit, $61 bill., Amtrak, $10 bil., safety programs, $5 bil. • Fiscal 2016 Federal Appropriations • Raises federal-aid obligation ceiling 5% to $42.4 billion • Raises Federal Transit Admin.’s budget 8% to $11.8 billion. • FAA Airport Improvement grants held at $3.4 billion • GSA’s construction account tripled to $1.6 billion • VA major construction account doubled to $1.2 billion • Corps of Engineers civil works acct. raised 10% to $6 billion. • Water Resources Development Act ($10.3 bil. +) • Infrastructure plans

5. Infrastructure Considerations Potential for Consensus but framework is not clear • Current Status • Highway Trust Fund Operating at a Deficit • Consensus: Infrastructure Under funded • Trump Plan • $1 Trillion program • $200 Billion Public Contribution • 80+% Tax Reductions • Reduced Lending Costs • Revenue Sources • Offset by Payroll Taxes • Local Funding • 75% of Current funding from State • Impact of Tax Plan on Muni Bonds

6. New Mexico Gross Domestic Product By the end of 2016, NM was still showing declines in GDP. There was an expectation of a modest increase in 2017. • Issues: • Out migration • Urban vs. Rural • Oil Prices Stabilizing • Public Funding

7. U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook New Mexico unemployment rate is 6.4%. 0.3 of a point better than in January 2017.

8. New Mexico: Tax Revenue 2018 Budget was a difficult process Reached 2018 Agreement Severance Bond Offset Threat to Education Suspend Infrastructure Reduce Rainy Day Fund Fed Cuts to Dept. of Energy

9. New Mexico: Single Family Conservative increase in housing since recession. ‘$000.00

10. New Mexico: Multi Family Urban areas are growing and demanding more housing. ‘$000.00

11. New Mexico: Highways Expect modest gains from Highway Fund. ‘$000.00

12. New Mexico: Highways Expect modest gains from Highway Fund.

13. New Mexico: Water Passage of the Water Resources bill is having an impact. ‘$000.00

14. New Mexico: Water Funding is flowing to water related projects.

15. New Mexico: Energy, Power Gas Decline from prior year. ‘$000.00

16. New Mexico: Energy Power Gas Decline from prior year. .

17. New Mexico: Total Construction

18. QUESTIONS? Cliff Brewis V P Operations Dodge Data & Analytics Cliff.brewis@construction.com

19. Cliff Brewis Vice President Operations Dodge Data & Analytics