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Emissions to Air

Emissions to Air. Richard S.J. Tol Economic and Social Research Institute Vrije, Carnegie Mellon and Hamburg Universities. Introduction. What’s new? Environmental accounts ISus/Air Emissions to air Acidification Production or consumption accounts? Greenhouse gases Conclusions.

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Emissions to Air

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  1. Emissions to Air Richard S.J. Tol Economic and Social Research Institute Vrije, Carnegie Mellon and Hamburg Universities

  2. Introduction • What’s new? • Environmental accounts • ISus/Air • Emissions to air • Acidification • Production or consumption accounts? • Greenhouse gases • Conclusions

  3. What’s new? • We published projections for emissions to air as part of the Medium Term Review in April 2008 • Since then • Dramatic changes in national and international economic circumstances • New data on energy use and emissions • More clarity about EU climate policy • Refinements in the model

  4. GDP at factor cost, 1990-2025 Source: Hermes

  5. Carbon dioxide emissions by sector, 1990-2006 Source: ESRI Environmental Accounts

  6. ISus/Air • ISus is Ireland’s Sustainable Development Model – used to build scenarios of future emissions and resource use • In fact, ISus is a expanding set of submodels under constant development (e.g., waste, power, transport, agriculture) • ISus/Air is an econometric model of emission intensities, specified per emission per sector

  7. Sulphur dioxide emissions by sector, 1990-2025 Source: ISus v0.3

  8. Greenhouse gas emissions by type, 1990-2025 Source: ISus v0.3

  9. Carbon dioxide emissions by sector, 1990-2025 Source: ISus v0.3

  10. Carbon dioxide emissions, consumption and trade, 1990-2025 Source: ISus v0.3

  11. Alternative projections of greenhouse gas emissions Source: ESRI; EPA

  12. Conclusions • Current economic crisis has led to a sharp revision of short term emission forecasts • No let up for environmental policy, as the economy may well catch-up later • Medium term forecasts have not changed much, suggest that Ireland will continue to be a net importer of greenhouse gas emission permits – and an even larger importer of embedded carbon • We’re on a better track for acidification

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