1 / 23

STRATEGOS CASE-BASED STRATEGY DECISION MAKING

STRATEGOS CASE-BASED STRATEGY DECISION MAKING. dr Jerzy Surma Collegium of Business Administration Warsaw School of Economics e-mail: jerzy.surma@sgh.waw.pl. Natura non facit saltus. Herbert Alexander Simon – behavioral approach.

baxter
Download Presentation

STRATEGOS CASE-BASED STRATEGY DECISION MAKING

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. STRATEGOSCASE-BASED STRATEGY DECISION MAKING dr Jerzy Surma Collegium of Business AdministrationWarsaw School of Economics e-mail: jerzy.surma@sgh.waw.pl Natura non facit saltus

  2. Herbert Alexander Simon – behavioral approach decision-makers lack the ability and resources to arrive at the optimal solution, they instead apply their rationality only after having greatly simplified the choices available ILL-STRUCTURED PROBLEMS

  3. Challenge ILL-STRUCTURED PROBLEMS: • complex, • unrepeatable, • intuitive, • made under uncertainty • …

  4. Challenge ILL-STRUCTURED PROBLEMS: • complex, • unrepeatable, • intuitive, • made under uncertainty STRATEGIC DECISION MAKING

  5. STRATEGIC DECISION MAKING SME CEO: 1. Routine – habitual and reactive decision making 2. Intuitive decision making

  6. STRATEGIC DECISION MAKING Reasoning by analogy is a common form of logic among business strategists. Facing a novel opportunity or predicament, strategists think back to some similar situation they have faced or heard about, and they apply the lessons from that previous experience SME CEO: 1. Routine – habitual and reactive decision Making 2. Intuitive decision making

  7. STRATEGIC DECISION MAKING Reasoning by analogy is a common form of logic among business strategists. Facing a novel opportunity or predicament, strategists think back to some similar situation they have faced or heard about, and they apply the lessons from that previous experience SME CEO: 1. Routine – habitual and reactive decision making 2. Intuitive decision making Case-Based Reasoning

  8. Circut City Car Max

  9. Strategos, plural strategoi (Greek: στρατηγός, pl. στρατηγοί; Doric Greek: στραταγός, stratagos; literally meaning "army leader") is used in Greek to mean "general". In the Hellenistic and Byzantine Empires the term was also used to describe a military governor. In the modern Hellenic Army, it is the highest officer rank

  10. Theoretical framework: A Theory of Case Based Decisions - Bilboa Let : P - be a set of decisions problems (case description), A – a set of acts that may be chosen at the current problem, R – a set of possible outcomes. Then a case is a triple: (q,a,r), where: q (problem) є P, a (act) є A, r (outcome) є R Formally, a decision maker with memory M, similarity function s, and utility function u, w ho now faces a new decision problem p, will rank each act a є A according to:

  11. Casedescription (P) • Company description: market share, location, products/services, • number of employees, sales volume (trends in at least two years period), • sales volume (export), EBITDA (trends in at least two years period), B2B/B2C. Context description: industry, industry life cycle phase, Porter five forces analysis (threat of substitute products, threat of the entry of new competitors, intensity of competitive rivalry, bargaining power of customers, bargaining power of suppliers).

  12. General Knowledge as a warning system • Inappropriate case retrieval based on the rule: • “if the new case company and the retrieved company • are in the different industry life cycle phase • then the proposed decisions might be wrong” Inappropriate proposed solution based on the rule: “if the company has just started to penetrate the market with current products and proposed decision is: intensive foreign market development then this is risky and unrealistic proposal”

  13. The act which is chosen as a solution for the current problem (A)

  14. Crucial phase - REVISE Revise: The solved case that was established in the previous phase has a planned strategic decision (act). This is a kind of proposal for a strategic actions plan. The most important goal of the revision phase is to recognize what has actually happened with that company after strategic decision was taken. It is crucial to take into consideration the case utility value (u) and user remarks concerning the reasons why the proposed approach was successful or unsuccessful. In reality, there are several factors of different type such as economic trend, customers’ behavior, organizational

  15. Evaluation by CEO’s (1/2) The test group was selected by the target selection and it is composed of 44 CEOs fromSMEs

  16. Sources of the strategy decisions pointed by SME CEO’s

  17. Evaluation by CEO’s (2/2)

  18. Conclusions acceptance of Strategos with a strong feeling of limitations treated the system as an inspiration or verification for their actions Suggested approach, together with methodological guidelines how to avoid superficial analogies, may be used in practice as a form of popularization of strategic business consulting in SMEs. The commercialization of suggested approach will contribute to the significant increase of knowledge and “strategic” awareness in SMEs. www.strategos.pl

More Related