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Worldwide Market Analysis of Motorcycles and Mopeds

This report provides an analysis of the global motorcycle and moped market, including market size, growth trends, and key factors driving demand. It also examines the US market, top brands, customer profiles, and emission standards.

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Worldwide Market Analysis of Motorcycles and Mopeds

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  1. Moped Definition • “Moped” means a vehicle, regardless of the number of wheels it has, that • (i) may be propelled • (a) by human muscular power • (b) by mechanical power, or • (c) partly by human muscular power and partly by mechanical power • (ii) has a motor that is driven by electricity or has an engine with a displacement of not more than 50 cubic centimeters, • (iii) does not have a hand-operated or foot-operated clutch or gearbox driven by • the motor that transfers power to the driven wheel.

  2. Motorcycle Definition • “Motorcycle” means a motor vehicle, other than a moped, that is mounted on 2 or 3 wheels and includes those motor vehicles known in the automotive trade as motorcycles and scooters. • any motor vehicle having a seat or saddle for the use of the rider and designed to travel on not more than three wheels in contact with the ground, but excluding a tractor or a moped. • The motorcycle here has a displacement plus 50cc For purpose of this report, Power Two Wheelers (PTW) = Motorcycle + Moped

  3. World PTW Market Dsitribution

  4. 2008 Worldwide PTW Market China is the largest market in volume (25%) while it is not proportional to the turnover value (only 39%). North America and Europe are not so outstanding in terms of volume (1% & 2.7%) but significant in turnover (8% & 21%). Note: Data for other regions are missing in these charts (Latin America, Asia Pacific). Market share for China 54% is too high. Source: 6th ACEM annual conference

  5. Worldwide PTW Demand & Projection Source: Freedonia world motorcycle study report 2009 • According to Freedonia market report, the worldwide PTW market continues to grow for all categories since 2003. Light motorcycles' consumption (101-249cc) is the highest among all categories. • Factors for increasing demand: • ongoing need for cost-effective motorized personal transportation, particularly in low-income developing nations • fuel efficiency • Sales advances through 2013 will be dampened to some degree by growing competition from electric motorcycles with higher overall energy efficiency and similar performance levels, as well as by government regulations restricting the use of internal combustion motorcycles in some areas. Note: The worldwide motorcycle sales decreased since 2006/2007 and have not shown signs of recovery yet. We have doubts on the estimated volume in 2013

  6. US PTW Market

  7. On-highway Designed for use on public roads. Indludes scooters and excludes mopeds(limited speed motor-driven cycles under 50cc, with or without fully operative pedals). Off-highway Includes competition motorcycles and excludes all-terrain vehicles(ATVs) Designed with the capability for use on public roads, as well as off-highway recrational use. Dual US Market status To look for 2009 data Note: "total volume" exclude the moped volume which is around 50K per year Source: Powersports Business/Motorcycle Industry Council • Global market increased since 2000 reaching annual volume of 1.1 mil units. • On-highway motorcycle increased since 2000. • Off-highway motorcycle shows declining trend since 2004. • Dual motorcycle volume is very small but has been increasing since 2000. • Moped market is very small compared to motorcycle with a stable volume around 50K per year.

  8. US 2010 1st half Sales • Through the first half, overall new unit retail sales are down 18 percent compared to a year ago, according to the MIC report released July 2010. The largest industry sector, on-road bikes, declined 14 percent through the first six months and was off even more (nearly 16 percent) in June. ATV sales also continue to decline, down nearly 25 percent for the first half. Scooter sales (minus 12 percent) and dual purpose bike sales (minus 10.5 percent) are off the least percentage-wise in the MIC categories.

  9. US Market By Displacement Source: Freedonia 2009 World Motorcycle Study • Freedonia forecast a growing PTW market motorcycle for 2013. • ≥250cc is the largest market in USA, almost 60% of the total sales. • <100cc market share is small but is showing an increasing trend.

  10. US Top Brands Source: MIC Statistical Annual 2009 • Nation's seven leading brands  Harley-Davidson, Honda, Yamaha, Kawasaki, Suzuki, Piaggio and KTM) account for 77% of the new motorcycle unit sales in 2008. • Other brands : BMW, Triumph, Ducati, MV Agusta, Royal Enfield....

  11. US Customer Profile Source: MIC Annual Report 2009 76% of the PTW customers are above 30 years old  Profile for high displacement motorcycle rather than small scooters.

  12. US Customer Profile • Style/design was the overwhelming No. 1 reason for buyers to choose a specific model. No.1 reason for purchasing model • Price and style/design were two common reasons why buyers opted for another bike. No.1 reason for not purchasing second choice

  13. PTW Emission Standards in US(Federal) Class I and II Motorcycle Emission Standards Class III Motorcycle Emission Standards Class I and II motorcycles (50 cc–169 cc and 170 cc–279 cc respectively) Class III motorcycles (280 cc or larger displacement) Exhaust Emission Standards for Off-Highway Motorcycles (g/km) Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motorcycle The emission regulation is relatively lineant in US compared to Europe.

  14. California Emission Standard OFF-ROAD MOTORCYCLE EMISSION STANDARD Highway motorcycle emission standard is as same as in federal code.

  15. European PTW Market

  16. European PTW Registration • Motorcycle represents more than half of all the PTW registrations in Europe and has a similar trend with the global European PTW trend. • The total moped registration in Europe is relatively stable but it is not the case for individual country (see next slide). • 2009 is provisional data from ACEM to be confirmed. • Declining trend after 2006 needs to be studied. (resons of decrease: EURO3 introduction?) Source: ACEM (European Association of Motorcycle Manufacturers)

  17. European 2009 PTW Sales • According to the provisional data of ACEM, there is a drop of 21% PTW sales in 2009 • New member states are more impacted by the crisis. The new EU 12 countries recorded a -36% drop, compared to a -20% in EU 15 member states. Source: 6th ACEM conference

  18. 15 Years EU Market Trend in € Last 15 years data shows positive growth for motorcycle and for overall PTW in term of turnover Source: 6th ACEM annual conference

  19. Moped Registration by Country NOTE: The data Romania from 2006 to 2008 are not available. 2009 data are not available for some of the countries. Source: ACEM (European Association of Motorcycle Manufacturers) • The top 5 European market for moped are France, Italy, Spain, Romania and Germany. • The most european countries show declining trend starting 2006/2007 except the Netherlands and Poland which show significant increase for the last 5 years. • In the eastern european countries, Poland is the second largest consumer of the moped following the Romania.

  20. Motorcycle Registration by Country • The data for Romania are not available from 2006 to 2009 • Turkey data does not seem to be very reliable. To add UK 2009 Source: ACEM (European Association of Motorcycle Manufacturers) • The top 5 European market for motorcycle are Italy, France, Spain, Germany, UK or Turkey?. • The top 3 countries (Italy, France, Spain)showed declining trend starting 2007. Reasons to be checked. • Germany, UK and Nertherland are relatively stable since 2002. • Turkey?, Romania and Poland are the top 3 market in Eastern Europe.

  21. Motorcycle & Moped Market Share in 2009 • With the absent data of Roumania, Italy, France, Spain, Germany and Turkey are the top 5 largest PTW markets in Europe. • 77%% of the volume in Italy is motorcycle. • 44% of the volume in France is moped. • 80% of the volume in The Netherland is moped. • Germany is also a non negligible market followed by Spain.. • Note: certain data is are not available for 2009 registration. We suppose that 2008 data is more reliable. Source: ACEM (European Association of Motorcycle Manufacturers)

  22. EU PTW By Displacement in 2008 Source: 2009 ACEM Annual Report • Among motorcycles, the 51cc-125cc motorcycle is the most popular followed by the 501cc-750cc motorcycles.

  23. EU Sales by Displacement by Country 2008 Units by 000 Data not consistent with ACEM, especially DE. To verify. • 50cc & 101-249cc (125cc) are the two best selling categories in total EU but in Italy and UK, >250cc are best selling category. • The other EU is the most developping region in terms of electric followed by Spain. Source: Freedonia world motorcycle study report 2009

  24. 125cc vs > 125cc EU Motorcycle segment - 125cc and over Source: ACEM (Association des Constructeurs Européens de Motocycles) • In 2007, the demand of the motorcycles which is over 125cc is about twice of the 125cc-motorcycles. • The demand for >125cc is subject to smaller fluctuation than 125cc for the last 13 years but has a weaker growth rate than the 125cc since 2002.

  25. Major European PTW Players • European PTW is a very fragmented market with 380 manufacturers and 818 brands in competition by 2009. • Untill 2008, in European market, Piaggio is the No.1 of all the brands followed by Yamaha group and then Honda. • The assembly of small brands are losing market share after the peak in 2006. • Suzuki, Peugeot, Kymco, Kawasaki, BMW, Sym, Harley and Keeway sold less than 20 000 units in EU market but are showing increasing sales for the last 5 years. CIAcem: the European registration database project developed by ACEM manufacturers Source: ACEM (European Association of Motorcycle Manufacturers)

  26. 2009 Europe Top models Source: Magasine l'Officielle 2010 July 3779

  27. EU PTW Production, Import, Export

  28. The Productions in EU Countries To combine 2009 Source: ACEM (Association des Constructeurs Européens de Motocycles) • The 6 countries (Italy, France, Spain, Germany, Austria and UK) represent over 90% of the production in Europe, in which Italy occupies almost the half of the total European production. • Western Europe is the third largest manufacturer of motorcycles behind the Asia/Pacific and Latin America regions. • After the peak of 2006, the european production trend began decreasing from 2007 and witnessed a great falling in 2008. The three largest european markets, Spain, France and Italy "contribute" a lot for this global falling. While the other two countries (Austria and Germany) remain almost the same production volume as the previous years. • The trend of the three largest countries is consistent: continued falling from 2001 to 2003 and increased in the next 2 years, then a significant drop in 2007 and 2008.

  29. Registration vs Production Data for 2009 not available Source: ACEM (European Association of Motorcycle Manufacturers) • Europe is a net importer of PTW. • Production and registration seem to follow the same trend for the last 7 years. • Declining trend after 2006 needs to be studied. (resons of decrease: EURO3 introduction?)

  30. Extra EU Export in € €Mn EU PTW export is gaining in value. Source: 5th ACEM Annual Conference • Despite the decline in production volume, EU PTW export shows a remarkable continuous progress over the period 2000-2008 for the motocycles above 250cc , scooters 50cc-250cc and the parts/accesories for PTWs. • The main customer countries for the EU PTW industry are the US, Japan and to a lesser extent Vietnam and Russia.

  31. Extra EU Import in € €Mn EU motorcycle import value has similar trend with EU global trend in volume. Source: 5th ACEM Annual Conference • The EU import shows a stagnation for motorcycles above 250cc. To a lesser extent, a similar trend can be observed for the 50-250cc motorcycle segment. • The mopeds import is increasing continuously. • The main supplier countries of the european PTW market are Japan, China, the US and to a lesser extent Taiwan.

  32. Extra EU Trade Balance Source: 5th ACEM Annual Conference

  33. Access to Extra-EU Markets • Most South-East Asian markets do not allow the imports of high engine capacity motocycles, by adopting barries: • -Highway bans • all motorcycles are prohibited on the highway except the highway designated in Korea, so as all PTWs. • Similar prohibitions exist in some cities in China while others prohibit PTWs from circulating. • -Tariffs and Taxes • India, with a market ranging in the area of 8 million PTWs, imposes a 100% tax which leads the highest import duties. Source: ACEM annual report 2009

  34. Western Europe Market Source: The Freedonia Group

  35. EU Emission Standard and Technologies

  36. ACEM introduction • ACEM = The European Association of Motorcycle Manufacturers • created in 1994: • 12 manufacturers (including extra‐EU) • 25 brands • 16 national industry associations representing smaller manufacturers (including SMEs) • 14 countries

  37. EU Current and Future Emission Standard Source: ACEM (European Association of Motorcycle Manufacturers)

  38. Proposed Future Motorcycle Emission Standard • The proposed Euro 4 stage will quickly achieve a 25% reduction over Euro 3 in tailpipe emissions for motorcycles • The proposed Euro 5 stage will realize a further 25% reduction and achieve the goal of parity with Euro 5 gasoline passenger car. • Therefore, moving from current Euro 3 to Euro 5 will reach a 50% reduction of motorcycle pollutant emissions. • ACEM manufacturers also support CO2 measurement as a part of next Euro 4 stage. Value shown is for Class II only Source: ACEM (European Association of Motorcycle Manufacturers)

  39. Proposed Future Moped Emission Standard Source: ACEM (European Association of Motorcycle Manufacturers) ACEM proposal for EURO 3 and EURO 4 3-wheel moped, tricycle and quadricycle (2012& 2015). More representative emission test cycle will also be proposed.

  40. ACEM Looking Ahead New safety technologies • Active safety: • Adaptive lighting • Tyre pressure monitoring • ESC (electronic speed control) • Advanced Braking Systems… • Passive safety: • Airbag: a first market experience • Other applications under research • ITS:(Intersection Safety System) • 2008: first V2X prototypes tested • BMW: Intersection Assistant • Honda: Advanced HMI (human-machine interface) Concept Source: 6th ACEM annual conference

  41. ACEM Looking Ahead • New propulsion technologies: • Bio-fuels • Hybrid • Electric • Fuel-cell technologies Source: 6th ACEM annual conference

  42. Appendix

  43. The Sources • Official industrial associations: Ancma in italy, Anesdor in Spain, MIC in US, ACEM in Europe and JAMA in Japan. • Magazines or websites: quad-info, motorcyclist, moto-net.com, Motorcyclist in France, cycle info magazine in China, powersport in US. web bike world for worldwide motorcycle infomations. • Report: Freedonia, Annual Report of each manufacturer (Honda, Yamaha, Ducati etc.) • For the legistration: official local website (in Europe, in each state of USA or Fedeal Code etc.) For example, CARB for California state.

  44. Japan Export 2008 zero? North America include USA? Source: JAMA(Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association)

  45. 2009 Japan Export by Manufacturer

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