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Roll the Dice with Confidence: Play to Win

Roll the Dice with Confidence: Play to Win. By Bill Carswell Adjunct Professor Embry Riddle Aeronautical University. Introduction. Schedule Risk Assessments (SRA): Provides confidence levels for meeting schedule and budget targets

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Roll the Dice with Confidence: Play to Win

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  1. Roll the Dice with Confidence:Play to Win By Bill Carswell Adjunct Professor Embry Riddle Aeronautical University

  2. Introduction • Schedule Risk Assessments (SRA): • Provides confidence levels for meeting schedule and budget targets • Identifies highest risk activities in the schedule and the budget

  3. SRA and Government Contracting • SRA is now required on Earned Value Management programs

  4. Integrated Program Management Report (IPMR) Implementation Guide 2.3.7.6: SRA… is a proven risk reduction scheduling practice. 2.3.7.6.1: The SRA employs software that uses Monte Carlo simulations…

  5. Integrated Program Management Report (IPMR) Implementation Guide 1.2 SRA is reported as part of Format 5

  6. Benefit to You “What distinguishes you as a contractor to the government is your ability to reduce their RISK” Dr. Marvin Carroll President/CEO Tec-Masters

  7. Sources of Software(MSProject Add-Ins) • Risky Project: Intaver Institute • Full Monte: Barbecana • @Risk: Palisade • Crystal Ball: Oracle • Acumen Risk: Deltek • Risk Analysis: Primavera • Risk+

  8. How It Works • SRA uses “Monte Carlo” (MC) method • 3-point estimates establish a range of possible activity durations (uncertainty) • MC “rolls the dice” to pick a duration for each schedule activity, independently • Evaluates schedule with “random” activity durations, then does it all again…10,000 times.

  9. Sample Results • Original Schedule • Duration: 199 days • Finish: 9/4/12 • SRA Results (see next two slides) • 9/4/12: 30% Probability • 9/6/12: 50% Probability • 9/11/12: 80% Probability

  10. Histogram Results

  11. Tornado Diagram Results

  12. Success Factors: Effective SRA Requires • Complete Schedule Logic: Fully sequenced with predecessors and successors • Good 3-point duration estimates • Limited number of date constraints • Fully resourced for budget analysis

  13. Bicycle Example

  14. Thank You! PM Planning is a “Pay now or pay much more later” business. Bill Carswell, Ph.D., PMPcarswell@hiwaay.net256-679-2276 www.linkedin.com/in/spacien/Please feel free to connect!

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