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Zhang HY, Wen ZP * , Wu RG. 2016: Climate Dynamics. DOI 10.1007/s00382-016-3131-6.

Zhang HY, Wen ZP * , Wu RG. 2016: Climate Dynamics. DOI 10.1007/s00382-016-3131-6. In recent years, inter-decadal variability of the EASM has drawn great attention. (Bin Wang et al., 2009).

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Zhang HY, Wen ZP * , Wu RG. 2016: Climate Dynamics. DOI 10.1007/s00382-016-3131-6.

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  1. Zhang HY, Wen ZP*, Wu RG. 2016: Climate Dynamics. DOI 10.1007/s00382-016-3131-6.

  2. In recent years, inter-decadal variability of the EASM has drawn great attention. (Bin Wang et al., 2009)

  3. A significant climate shift occurred around the late 1970s, featuring an increase in summer rainfall over the Yangtze River region and a decrease in rainfall over South China and North China (Nitta and Hu 1996; Wu and Chen 1998; Zhai et al. 2005; Ding et al. 2008). (c)1993-2004 (a)1951-1978 (b)1979-1992 Summer rainfall anomaly (Ding et al., 2008) dipole structure tripole structure

  4. Marked variability—the 1970s shift EASWJ moved southward • A significant southward displacement of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet (EASWJ) • Intensity of the EASM weakened abruptly at the same time (Wang 2001; Guo et al. 2003). (Yu et al. 2004) UV850diff (Li et al. 2010)

  5. SST change • Marked variability—the 1970s shift Increase in TP snow • Influences of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), and Increase in TP snow were emphasized. (Nitta and Yamada 1989; Trenberth and Hurrell 1994; Ding et al. 2009) • Decrease of land–sea thermal contrast in summer leds to weakening of monsoon. (Ding et al. 2009) Decrease in land-sea contrast (Ding et al. 2009)

  6. Marked variability—the 1990s change Decadal change in the EASM Weakening in the EASWJ (Zhu et al, 2014) (Kwon et al., 2007)

  7. Marked variability—the 1990s change SST warming Increase in snow dif_wind10 dif_vpot850 A A (Wu et al, 2010)

  8. Most of the previous studies investigated the climate changes separately. • Are there any common features between the late 1970s and early 1990s shifts? • What may be responsible for the intercommunity? How to interpret the amplitude asymmetry? • Is there any SST forcing that might be responsible for both of these inter-decadal changes?

  9. Datasets: • Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55, Kobayashi et al. 2015) for the period 1958–2012. • The 40-year European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis (ERA-40, Uppala et al. 2005) for the period 1958–2002 • Monthly SST from the Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office (HadISST, Rayner et al. 2003). The SST is available on a 1° × 1° grid starting from January 1847. • Model: • The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmospheric Model version 4.0 (CAM4,Neale et al. 2013) is used. • The model horizontal resolution is about 2.5° longitude by 1.9° latitude and 26 vertical-levels.

  10. a remarkable meridional tripole pattern • associated weakened EASWJ. • capture the common features • enhanced northerly winds, enhanced southerly winds and weakened • displays an increasing trend • Imply the interplay between natural decadal variability and anthropogenic climate change Fig.1 The MV-EOF modes of the EASM and the corresponding time coefficients from 1958 to 2012.

  11. For the first change around the end of 1970s • A barotropic cyclonic circulation anomaly. • A prominent anomalous cyclone. • An increase in divergence at upper level is detected. • Enhanced upper-level convergence over the SCS-Philippines are seen. For the second change around the early of 1990s Fig. 2 Inter-decadal changes in winds at low level and upper level

  12. the second mode is most important in determining features of the first change. For the first change around the end of 1970s MVEOF2-related • signals of natural decadal variability and global warming are overlying. • a positive contribution to the tropical circulation change occurring in the late 1970s. MVEOF3-related Fig, 3 changes in monsoon circulation for MVEOF2-related components and MVEOF3-related components

  13. For the second change around the end of 1970s • Natural decadal variability of the EASM also makes the most important contribution. • What differs from the former change is that parts of anomalies over the SCS-Philippines caused by MV-EOF2 are offset by anomalies caused by MV-EOF3. • The total anomalies are weaker in contrast to the 1970s change. MVEOF2-related MVEOF3-related Fig. 4 As in Fig. 3, but for the difference of the 1994–2002 mean minus 1980–1993 mean

  14. For the change from 1958–1975 to 1980–1993 • Toral Precipitation anomaly displays a meridional quadrupole structure. • more precipitation to south China and less precipitation to northern China. • In South China and Northeast China, its contributions can be up to 80 %. Monsoon precipitation. Fig. 5 Difference of the 1980– 1993 mean minus 1958–1975 mean for summer precipitation (mm day−1)

  15. For the change from 1980–1993 to 191994–2002 • Parts caused by decadal variability are offset by those related to global warming. • That may explain partly why climate change signals are indistinctive over North China and central China. • Contribution of natural decadal variability drops to about 40% in South China. Fig. 6 As in Fig. 6, but for the difference of the 1994–2002 mean minus 1980–1993 mean

  16. In order to find some command SST forcing • Inter-decadal variability of the EASM is closely correlated with the IPO, • Around the late 1970s, an El-Ninolike decadal warming change, around the early 1990s, an La-Nina like decadal cooling change. • Remote SIO SST anomaly may be responsible for both inter-decadal changes of the EASM Interdecadal Total SST Ano Fig. 7 Correlations of summer SST with PC2. Time series of the anomalous summer SST (℃) averaged over SIO. Difference of inter-decadal component and total field.

  17. A decadal cooling is accompanied by …… • Outflows from the eastern SIO and tropical IO converge over the Philippines, leading to ….. • SST forcing in subtropical IO could exert an effect on monsoon circulation over tropical East Asia through anomalous vertical circulation. Observation results 00 00 Fig.8 The regressed maps with respect to inter-decadal component of regional mean SST averaged over SIO

  18. Observation results • An anomalous cyclone at 850 hPa, an increase in ascent at 500 hPa and a divergence at 200 hPa over the SCS-Philippines. • An increase in upper level convergence along with anomalous mid-tropospheric descent over the western Australia and equatorial IO are also seen. • The composited results indicate a linkage between the remote SIO SST and EASM discussed in above for both these inter-decadal changes. Fig. 9 Difference of the 1970s change and of the 1990s change, resperctively

  19. one with climatological seasonal cycle of SST and the other with climatological seasonal cycle of SST plus idealized JJA SST anomalies of −0.3 ℃ in SIO. • Althought the location of anomalies over the SIO displays some differences from observations. the model results support the impact of remote SIO SST forcing on the tropical East Asian circulation. Fig.10 The SST anomalies specified in the sensitive experiment

  20. The present study compares characteristics of these two changes and analyzes plausible influences of the SIO SST change. • The two inter-decadal changes in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) , occurred around the late 1970s and early 1990s, share pronounced common features, characterized byan equivalent barotropic circulation anomaly over northern East Asia and a meridional vertical overturning circulation over the tropical region. • They display some distinct characteristics, especially over the tropics. The circulation anomalies are more robust for the first change than for the second one.Related amplitude asymmetry is partly attributed to a weakening trend in the EASM. • SST change in the SIO, featuring a decadal warming since the 1980s and a cooling after 1993, may contribute to both of these inter-decadal changes.

  21. We performed a parallel analysis using the ERA-40 Reanalysis dataset that is available for the period 1958–2002 which contains the main periods we focus on. • Both the JRA-55 and ERA-40 dada depict common characteristics between the late 1970s change and the early 1990s change, and their amplitude asymmetry over the tropics. Fig. 12 The same as in Fig. 1 except based on ERA-40 data from 1958–2002

  22. The spatial patterns of linear trends in summer 850 and 200-hPa winds are tested, as illustrated in Fig. 2.

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