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Oakland Unified School District Demographic Trends and Downtown Development

Oakland Unified School District Demographic Trends and Downtown Development. September 6, 2006 Shelley Lapkoff www.Demographers.com. Topics Covered. District-wide enrollment changes Downtown developments Housing forecast Student yields in new development Student yields in older housing

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Oakland Unified School District Demographic Trends and Downtown Development

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  1. Oakland Unified School DistrictDemographic Trends and Downtown Development September 6, 2006 Shelley Lapkoff www.Demographers.com

  2. Topics Covered • District-wide enrollment changes • Downtown developments • Housing forecast • Student yields in new development • Student yields in older housing • Forecast of students from Downtown housing developments

  3. District-wide Enrollment Trends • Cycle of events creating enrollment decline • Significant enrollment decline after the dotcom bust • Enrollment decline created financial problems • Financial problems led to the state takeover • State takeover and closing schools resulted in further enrollment decline • Enrollment decline is likely to be temporary, with OUSD eventually returning to more normal enrollment levels

  4. Downtown Development • Over 14,000 housing units to be built, including 1,800 already built • Most developments will be high-rise luxury condominiums that do not contain many children • “Affordable” units can significantly impact OUSD enrollments

  5. Enrollment Impact Depends on Student Yield • Only three students live in Downtown’s recently-constructed market rate housing (over 1,700 units) • The one non-senior affordable housing project contained 16 students in 42 units. • Older high-rise buildings also had low yields, though a few complexes contained children.

  6. Key Assumptions in Forecasting Students from Downtown Development • Percentage of units that will be “affordable” • Student yield of market rate units • Student yield of the affordable units • Grade distribution of students from new housing • Number and type of units built

  7. Accommodating Students in OUSD Facilities • Do not assume that current facilities can accommodate students from new housing: • Enrollments are probably low only temporarily • Oak & 9th is isolated by the freeway and railroad tracks • Some of the elementaries are now full, despite the recent decline • If enrollments warrant it, Carter (and more of Lowell) middle school could be re-opened. Then McClymonds would have space for additional high school students, assuming the middle school students now served there return to middle school campuses. • If the Medium and High forecast materializes, a plan is needed to house additional elementary students.

  8. Summary • OUSD has had abnormal enrollment declines, and now has very low enrollments. We do not yet know whether this year’s enrollments will continue this downward trend. • Probably about 1,200 students will be generated from downtown housing, assuming that 15 percent of the units will be “affordable.” • The District will want various contingency plans to decide how to accommodate the students from new development. The elementary enrollment increase may be the most difficult to handle.

  9. Questions???

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