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BEA’s Regional Economic Accounts:

BEA’s Regional Economic Accounts:. Past Improvements and What Lies Ahead for the Regional Program. Robert L. Brown Calibrating the Nevada Economy: Data and Tools for Assessing Our State and Local Economies Reno, Nevada February 2, 2007. BEA’s Regional Accounts Initiatives. Accelerated

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BEA’s Regional Economic Accounts:

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  1. BEA’s Regional Economic Accounts: Past Improvements and What Lies Ahead for the Regional Program Robert L. Brown Calibrating the Nevada Economy: Data and Tools for Assessing Our State and Local Economies Reno, Nevada February 2, 2007

  2. BEA’s Regional Accounts Initiatives • Accelerated estimates • New statistics • Other improvements • Future improvements

  3. Accelerations Acceleration Data release From To Timing Quarterly state personal income 4 months 3 months Completed 2004 18 months 6 months Completed 2005 Total GDP by state 18 months 10 months Completed 2005 GDP-by-state industry detail County industry detail 16 months 12 months Completed 2005 Metro-area personal income 16 months 9 months Completed 2006

  4. New Statistics: Local Area Compensation • County estimates of compensation by industry, 1998 forward • Sum of Wages and salaries and supplements to wages • Labor costs of production • First released in 2005 • December release provides early indicator of economic activity for counties

  5. New Statistics: More Local Area Data • Metro area disposable personal income • Researching the estimation of personal current taxes for metro areas • Subtracted from personal income to derive DPI • Some results from the prototype estimates… • Bridgeport, CT per capita personal current taxes 16,150—26.1% of personal income • McAllen, TX per capita personal current taxes 1,082—7.4 % of personal income

  6. New Statistics: More Data on Tables • New tables—CA04 summary and CA06 Compensation • More Geography • New Metropolitan area definitions—including micropolitan areas • More detail on tables • Since 1996 the amount of detail on tables has doubled • 1996—0.9 million lines per year • 2006—2.0 million lines per year

  7. New Statistics: Longer Time Series • Annual state earnings industry data now back to 1990 on a NAICS basis • Previously only 2001 forward • GDP by state now available for 1963 forward on SIC basis • Previously 1977 forward

  8. New Statistics: Interarea Prices • Indexes that permit place to place comparisons correcting for price level differences • Jointly with the BLS, using CPI microdata • Intermediate goal: produce indexes for 38 urban areas • Covers 87 percent of US population • CPI covers urban areas, so state indexes require additional data • BEA Advisory Committee presentation and Working Paper in 2005 • Article in September 2006 Monthly Labor Review

  9. Other Improvements: Improved Preliminary State Wage Methodology

  10. Other Improvements: Outreach • Outreach to users of the statistics • 6 Regional data users conferences around the country in the past 15 months • 7 RIMS training workshops for regional data users in the past 15 months

  11. Regional Working Papers and Presentations in One Location • Go To: BEA Home • Regional • Articles Tool Bar • Regional Working Papers and Presentations

  12. Future Improvements: More Accelerations of Releases • Personal income for metropolitan areas • 8 months after end of calendar year • GDP by state and sector • 6 months after end of calendar year

  13. Future Improvements: More Local Area Data • Gross metro product (GMP) • Initial estimates—top-down approach: • Allocate state GDP by local area earnings data • Research into bottom-up approach for non-labor part of GMP • Taxes and gross operating surplus • Research using sub-state Census Bureau data

  14. Future Improvements: Alternative Estimates of Regional Income • Develop alternative household income measures that better meet user needs to: • Measure spending capacity • Track tax base • Research to be released this Spring

  15. US Pension Accounting, 2000 Personal income 8,429.7 - Net reclassifications 3.0 - Pension contributions 697.7 - Pension Fund Property Income 367.7 + Pension benefits 652.2 Adjusted personal income 8,013.6

  16. Future Improvements: Personal Income Mapping • Interactive Web-based state and county personal income mapping • Prototype this year

  17. Future Improvements: GDP by State • Carry GDP by state back to 1992 on a NAICS industry basis • NAICS currently from 1997 • Requires back-casting Census Bureau data at Center for Economic Studies • Develop alternative state GDP methodology to estimate gross output and intermediate expenses

  18. Future Improvement: Regional Multipliers • Produce value-added multipliers • In addition to gross output multipliers currently produced • Improve methods to “regionalize” the national input-output accounts • Research into capturing interregional flows of goods and people

  19. Other Future Research: New Data Sources • The American Community Survey (ACS) and the Local Employment Dynamics (LED) datasets as substitutes for the decennial Census long-form • IRS information returns data by state • Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) data for contributions to health insurance

  20. And Finally: Comprehensive Revision • Spring 2009—every 5 years • Definitional revisions • Statistical and methodological revisions • Presentational revisions

  21. Questions? • Contact: • Robert L, Brown • 202.606.9246 • Robert.brown@bea.gov

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