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Douglas Biesecker

Douglas Biesecker. NOAA/Space Environment Center Chair of Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel. Solar Minimum. CYCLE 21. CYCLE 22. Solar Maximum Cycle 22. Solar Maximum Cycle 23. WHAT IS A SOLAR CYCLE? Solar activity rises and falls over an 11 year cycle. The Solar Cycle 24 Panel.

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Douglas Biesecker

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  1. Douglas Biesecker NOAA/Space Environment Center Chair of Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel

  2. Solar Minimum CYCLE 21 CYCLE 22 Solar Maximum Cycle 22 Solar Maximum Cycle 23 WHAT IS A SOLAR CYCLE? Solar activity rises and falls over an 11 year cycle

  3. The Solar Cycle 24 Panel • Charged with determining official prediction for Solar Cycle 24 for NOAA, NASA, and the International Space Environment Service (ISES) • Panel chaired by NOAA, funded by NASA • International membership • The panel has 12 voting members • Only 11 voted on these predictions

  4. The Panel is today releasing predictions for • The impending solar minimum • Marking onset of Cycle 24 • The peak sunspot number expected for Cycle 24 • The time of the peak sunspot number • What follows is the consensus of the panel

  5. Solar Minimum • March, 2008 (±6 months) • Marks the end of Cycle 23 and start of Cycle 24 • The length of Cycle 23 will then be 11.75 years • Longer than the average of 11 years

  6. Cycle 24 Maximum • Will peak at a sunspot number of 140(±20) in October, 2011 Or • Will peak at a sunspot number of 90(±10) in August, 2012 • An average solar cycle peaks at 114 • The next cycle will be neither extreme, nor average • But, the panel is split down the middle on whether it will be bigger than average or smaller than average

  7. The April 25 Prediction

  8. A few comments… • Why the panel still disagrees… • We’re still a long way from solar minimum • What’s the main difference between the big (140) and small (90) predictions? • Big – assume solar memory lasts 20-30 years • Small – assume solar memory lasts 11 years

  9. There is still work to do… • What would cause the big predictors to think small • If solar minimum drags out beyond March, 2008 • What would cause the small predictors to think big • If either the magnetic field at the sun’s poles increases in strength or geomagnetic activity increases before March, 2008

  10. Thus, consensus is expected… • About March, 2008 • The panel will re-evaluate conditions on the sun every 3 months • The panel will update this prediction annually, or as things change.

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