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Welcome to the Fall 2007 Crystal Ball Seminar!

Welcome to the Fall 2007 Crystal Ball Seminar!. THE NEW AMERICAN HOME. PRODUCT OBSOLESCENCE. PRODUCT LIFE CYCLE. STOP THINKING. 1979 ... 1980. Underserved Markets. We are Still Building As If Every Buyer is a Nuclear Family…. But The Truth Is.

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Welcome to the Fall 2007 Crystal Ball Seminar!

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  1. Welcome to the Fall 2007 Crystal Ball Seminar!

  2. THE NEW AMERICAN HOME PRODUCT OBSOLESCENCE

  3. PRODUCT LIFE CYCLE

  4. STOP THINKING 1979 ... 1980

  5. Underserved Markets • We are Still Building As If Every Buyer is a Nuclear Family…

  6. But The Truth Is • The Average Home Square Footage is UP 46% • The Average Household Size is Down 23%

  7. HOME OFFICE • AT LEAST 1/3 OF YOUR BUYERS WORK FULL TIME FROM HOME

  8. US CENSUS DATA TYPICAL AMERICAN FAMILY • 86 million people in this country are single • 51% of all adult women in this country are single.

  9. UP NEXT . . . David Murphy – SalesTraq of New Mexico

  10. “Sub Prime Fallout!!!!”

  11. But what is the big picture telling us? Over the next 4 month stretch, the average base price decreased- 3.3% Over this 20 month stretch, the average base price rose only + 1.1% Over the following 3 month stretch, the average base price rose + 14.2%!!! Up +69% Since Jan. 2001

  12. Observation: Our local bubble is leaking air.

  13. “Average” & “Median” percentage increase for Albuquerque (Year over year comparison) * NEW HOME BROCHURE BASE ASKING PRICE (Single Family Homes) November 2006 average = $256,174 November 2007 average = $253,847 0.9% decrease That’s the first year over year average price decrease since February of 2004 Source: SalesTraq of New Mexico - www.salestraq.com/albuquerque

  14. Price Prediction: In the months ahead, base prices of new homes will continue to decline. This will be accomplished primarily by downgrading the “standard features”.

  15. Certainty: The new homes of the future will continue to be designed and driven largely by the need for “energy efficiency”

  16. Residential Housing Update in the Albuquerque Area Jim Folkman Executive Vice President Home Builders Association of Central New Mexico November 8, 2007

  17. Single Family Permit History Blah bah Blah Blah Blah

  18. Down-Turn Significance Profound and direct effect on home construction industry and economy of New Mexico. $1.3 billion industry in ABQ Metro. $65.9 million in GRT Revenues Reminds us that our industry is, inevitably and historically, cyclical in nature

  19. Magnitude of Foreclosure Problem Currently 732,000 foreclosures in process Another 410,000 soon to be in process 46% of all mortgages placed in recent years had less than 5% DP

  20. Magnitude of Foreclosure Problem One third during same time were sub-prime Adjustable rates could go from, say, 7.5% to 11% at adjustment point Foreclosure rate in NM is currently ranked 44th, but that will probably change

  21. Where Will Homes and Communities Be Built in the Future? Fewer and fewer stand-alone subdivisions More and more master-planned and mixed- use communities Fewer than 14,000 lots left in COA, which is a 4-5 year supply Over 170,000 in planning by master- planned communities Increasing opportunities in redevelopment

  22. SALESTRAQTM Of New Mexico More information atwww.Salestraq.com and www.CrystalBallSeminars.com

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