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Energy Efficiency and Conservation: Trends and Policy Issues. Energy Policy Report Proceeding Docket 02-IEP-01 Staff Workshop Paper Publication 100-03-008F Sylvia Bender Demand Analysis Office California Energy Commission June 4, 2003. Consumption Trends
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Energy Efficiency and Conservation: Trends and Policy Issues Energy Policy ReportProceeding Docket 02-IEP-01 Staff Workshop Paper Publication 100-03-008F Sylvia Bender Demand Analysis Office California Energy Commission June 4, 2003 Page 1
Consumption Trends Program Policy and Expenditure Trends Program Savings Trends 2000-2001 Crisis Additional Electricity and Natural Gas Potential Remaining Outline Page 2
California Electricity Consumption per Capita by Sector 1990-2013 Page 4
California Peak Demand per Capita by Sector 1990-2013 Page 5
Gas Consumption Breakdown2001 Page 10
Long history of expansion and contraction of funding levels due to policy shifts Pre-Restructuring Period (Pre-1996) Integrated resource planning / resource acquisition Restructuring Period (1997-2000) Market transformation Post-Restructuring Period (2001- ) Peak load emphasis Re-examination of policies Program Policy and Expenditure Trends Page 12
Incremental MW Impacts from Programs Begun Prior to 2001 Page 14
Executive, legislative, and regulatory responses to crisis $850 million additional funding Peak demand reduced in 2001 average of 10.4% over summer months of 2000 Consumption down 6.7% from 2000 First-year savings estimated at 4.76 million MWh and 3,389 MW from 200+ programs 2000-2001 Crisis Page 15
Emerging technology potential Existing technology potential Conservation behavior potential Additional Potential for Energy and Peak Demand Savings? Page 16
Summary of 10-Year Net Achievable Energy Efficiency Potential Page 17
Statewide Peak Electricity Demand Scenarios +3% 2.14 % -3% 1.62% 1.88 % Page 18
Natural Gas Demand Scenarios Low DSM 0.78% growth +0.55% -0.70% Baseline Forecast 0.73% growth High DSM 0.67% growth Page 19
Buildings account for two-thirds of electricity consumption and three-fourths of peak Air conditioning dominates peak load, followed by commercial lighting, the miscellaneous categories for both residential and commercial, & residential refrigeration Uncertainty factor is higher for natural gas potential Higher spending has achieved higher savings Changes in behavior were very important in 2001 Additional achievable potential remains, but may be harder to get Findings Page 20
2001 Electricity Peak by Sector Page 22