Health risk?

1. Health risk?

2. Overview You live near a large chemical factory that manufactures fertilizers for agricultural use. The factory has been running for 10 years. Over the past five years, doctors have reported a number of cases of local people suffering from long-term breathing problems.

3. What was said at the public meeting? My symptoms started 2 years ago. I am frequently short of breath. The factory emits toxic fumes. Lucy Phillips, resident Gethin Harris, resident This factory is making us ill! I work in the factory and smoke occasionally. My cough is worse at work. Mr Jones, resident Rhian Jones, resident We have studied the toxicity of the soil in the local area. There is no evidence of toxic chemicals in the samples taken. We have studied the number of cases of long-term breathing problems in the local area. We have compared this with the number of cases of the same problems in an area 50km away from the chemical factory. We have found more incidents in the area close to the chemical factory. Scientists working for the chemical company The emission fumes from the factory are not a health risk to residents. Factory owner Scientists working for the local community

4. What do you think? What evidence is there to: • support the residents’ claims that the factory is the source of their illness? • reject the residents’ claims that the factory is the source of their illness? Which viewpoint do you support? Why? How strong is the evidence for this? Why do you think this?

5. What do you think? Other than the statement by the scientists working for the residents, why else might you doubt the statement made by the scientists for the company? Does the company scientists’ statement support or provide a counter-argument for the factory owner’s statement? How do you know?

6. What do you think? The scientists working for the residents compared the number of cases of long-term breathing problems close to the factory with those living in an area far away from the factory. What possible differences in the two areas would cast doubt on the validity of the comparison?

7. Drawing a conclusion! You are an independent scientist called in to draw a final conclusion. What investigations would you plan to carry out for yourself to establish a conclusion? How could you be sure that the results are reliable and that the conclusion is valid? How would your results indicate if: • the factory is the source of the illness? • the factory is not the source of the illness?

8. What other information might you need to draw a conclusion? What happens to toxic fumes emitted into the atmosphere? Chemical composition of agricultural fertilizers Patients’ health records Bethan Alun Sarah I think……. I think . . . The chemicals that are released in the fumes The respiratory diseases that can be caused by chemicals Charlie Jenny