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Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments Hands-On Training Workshop, Paraguay, August 14-18 2006 Impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessment for coastal zones. Outline. Drivers & impacts on coastal areas Adaptation options V&A tools & data sources Integrating mechanisms Conclusions.

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  1. Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments Hands-On Training Workshop,Paraguay, August 14-18 2006Impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessment for coastal zones

  2. Outline • Drivers & impacts on coastal areas • Adaptation options • V&A tools & data sources • Integrating mechanisms • Conclusions

  3. Drivers & impacts on coastal areas

  4. Climate Change and Coastal Resources • Coastal resources will be affected by a number of consequences of climate change, including: • Higher sea levels • Higher sea temperatures • Changes in precipitation patterns and coastal runoff • Changed oceanic conditions • Changes in storm tracks, frequencies, and intensities

  5. Table 5.2. The main biophysical effects of relative sea level rise, including relevant interacting factors. Some factors (e.g., sediment supply) appear twice because they may be influenced by both climate and nonclimate factors (adapted from Nicholls, 2002). Biogeophysical effect Other relevant factors Climate Nonclimate Inundation, flood and storm damage Surge Wave and storm climate, morphological changes, sediment supply Sediment supply, flood management, morphological changes, land claim Backwater effect (river) Runoff Catchment management and land use Wetland loss (and change) CO2 fertilization Sediment supply Sediment supply, migration space, direct destruction Erosion Sediment supply, wave and storm climate Sediment supply Saltwater intrusion Surface waters Runoff Catchment management and land use Groundwater Rainfall Land use, aquifer use Rising water tables/impeded drainage Rainfall Land use, aquifer use The Main Biophysical Effects of Relative Sea Level Rise

  6. Biogeophysical effects Climate factor Direction of change Some Climate Change Factors Table 5.1. Some climate change and related factors relevant to coasts and their biogeophysical effects (taken from Nicholls, 2002) Sea water temperature (of surface waters) Increase Increased coral bleaching; migration of coastal species toward higher latitudes; decreased incidence of sea ice at higher latitudes Precipitation intensity/run-off Intensified hydrological cycle, with wide regional variations Changed fluvial sediment supply; changed flood risk in coastal lowlands; but also consider catchment management Wave climate Poorly known, but significant temporal and spatial variability expected Changed patterns of erosion and accretion; changed storm impacts Storm track, frequency, and intensity Poorly known, but significant temporal and spatial variability expected Changed occurrence of storm flooding and storm damage Increased productivity in coastal ecosystems; decreased CaCO3 saturation impacts on coral reefs Atmospheric CO2 Increase

  7. Current Global Predictions of Sea Level Rise • IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) range for global-mean rise in sea level is between 9 cm and 88 cm by 2100 • Change outside this range is possible, especially if Antarctica becomes a significant source • There is a “commitment to sea level rise” even if atmospheric GHG concentrations are stabilized

  8. Global-Mean Sea Level Rise 1990 to 2100 (SRES scenarios) Houghton et al., 2001

  9. Processes Controlling Sea-LevelChange • Relative sea-level changes

  10. Factors in Local Predictions • Relative sea level rise: global and regional components plus land movement • Land uplift can counter any global sea level rise • Land subsidence can exacerbate any global sea level rise • Other dynamic oceanic and climatic effects cause regional differences (oceanic circulation, wind and pressure, and ocean-water density differences add additional component)

  11. Other Climate Change(Hurricane Katrina) Source: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2005/aug/hazards.html

  12. Gulfport, Mississippi, July 05

  13. Grand Casino, Gulfport 21 Sept 2005

  14. Coral Impacts • “Recent global increases in reef ecosystem degradation and mortality are exceeding the adaptive capacity of coral reef organisms and communities. The severity of this crisis will only intensify with future changes in the global climate. • While the net effects of climate change on coral reefs will be negative, coral reef organisms and communities are not necessarily doomed to total extinction. • Multiple environmental management strategies, from local to global, will be necessary to ensure the long-term sustainability of the world’s coral reef ecosystems.” Buddemeier et al, 2004

  15. Controls on Coastal Position antecedent sea-level littoral sediment change physiography supply (±ve) boundary conditions (external) fluvial-delta inlet bypassing C D resuspension & inlet bypassing lagoon basin mud mid-shelf mud lower shoreface backbarrier marine sand wedge inner-shelf sand A B cross-shelf bypassing upper shoreface inlet transport coastal tract

  16. Rio de la Plata http://www.intute.ac.uk/sciences/worldguide/html/824_satellite.html

  17. Beach Erosion, Barbados Before Storm After Storm Source: http://www.unesco.org/csi/act/cosalc/shore-ero.htm

  18. Biogeophysical Effects of Sea Level Rise • Displacement of coastal lowlands and wetlands • Increased coastal erosion • Increased flooding (frequency and depth) • Salinization of surface and groundwaters • Plus others

  19. Ecosystem Loss • Inundation and displacement of wetlands • e.g., mangroves, saltmarsh, intertidal areas • Areas provide • Flood protection • Nursery areas for fisheries • Important for nature conservation • Loss of valuable resources, tourism

  20. Coastal Ecosystems at Risk • KEY: • mangroves, o saltmarsh, x coral reefs

  21. Coastal Squeeze (of coastal wetlands) Sea Level Rise (a) no hard defenses (b) hard defenses

  22. Socioeconomic Impacts • Loss of property and land • Increased flood risk/loss of life • Damage to coastal protection works and other infrastructure • Loss of renewable and subsistence resources • Loss of tourism, recreation, and coastal habitats • Impacts on agriculture and aquaculture through decline in soil and water quality

  23. Tianjin Dhaka Seoul Osaka Istanbul Tokyo New York Shanghai Los Angeles Manila Bangkok Lagos Mumbai Lima Karachi Madras Jakarta Rio de Janeiro Buenos Aires Calcutta Coastal Megacities (>8 million people)Forecast for 2010

  24. Adaptation Options

  25. Responding to Coastal Change(including sea level rise) • Retreat • Accommodation • Protect • Soft • Hard

  26. Adaptation Methods • Retreat • Managed retreat • Relocation from high risk zones • Accommodation • Public awareness • Natural disaster management planning

  27. Adaptation Methods (continued) • Protect • Hard options • Revetments, breakwaters, groins • Floodgates, tidal barriers • Soft options • Beach/wetland nourishment • Dune restoration

  28. Beach Nourishment, Nevis Eroded Beach Re-nourished Beach Source: http://www.unesco.org/csi/act/cosalc/shore-ero.htm

  29. Example Approach to Adaptation Measures • Climate change predictions • Rise in sea level • Increase in number and intensity of tropical weather systems • Increase in severity of storm surges • Changes in rainfall

  30. Example Approach to Adaptation Measures (continued) • Coastal impacts • Damage to property/infrastructure • Damage/loss of coastal/marine ecosystems • Destruction of hotels and tourism facilities • Increased risk of disease • Damage/loss of fisheries infrastructure • General loss of biodiversity • Submergence/inundation of coastal areas

  31. Example Approach to Adaptation Measures (continued) • Adaptation (retreat, protect, accommodate) • Improved physical planning and development control • Strengthening/implementation of EIA regulations • Formulation of Coastal Zone Management Plan • Monitoring of coastal habitats, including beaches • Formulation of national climate change policy • Public awareness and education

  32. Shoreline Management and Adaptation

  33. V&A Tools & Data Sources

  34. Coastal Vulnerability Assessment • Principles • Older tools • Top down • Bottom up

  35. Methods to Assess Impacts of Sea Level Rise • Sea level rise & climate change scenarios • Screening assessment • Erosion • Flooding • Top-down • Bottom up

  36. Screening Assessment • Rapid assessment to highlight possible impacts of a sea level rise scenario and identify information/data gaps • Qualitative or semiquantitative • Steps • Collation of existing coastal data • Assessment of the possible impacts of a high sea level rise scenario • Implications of future development • Possible responses to the problems caused by sea level rise

  37. Step 1: Collation of Existing Data • Topographic surveys • Aerial/remote sensing images – topography/ land cover • Coastal geomorphology classification • Evidence of subsidence • Long-term relative sea level rise • Magnitude and damage caused by flooding • Coastal erosion • Population density • Activities located on the coast (cities, ports, resort areas and tourist beaches, industrial and agricultural areas)

  38. Step 2: Assessment of Possible Impacts of High Scenario Sea Level Rise • Four impacts are considered • Increased storm flooding • Beach/bluff erosion • Wetland and mangrove inundation and loss • Salt water intrusion

  39. Step 3: Implications of Future Developments • New and existing river dams and impacts on downstream deltas • New coastal settlements • Expansion of coastal tourism • Possibility of transmigration

  40. Step 4: Responses to the Sea Level Rise Impacts • Planned retreat (i.e., setback of defenses) • Accommodate (i.e., raise buildings above flood levels) • Protect (i.e., hard and soft defenses, seawalls, beach nourishment)

  41. Screening Assessment Matrix Biophysical vs. Socioeconomic Impacts

  42. Beach Erosion, Anguilla Pre Hurricane Post Hurricane Source: http://www.unesco.org/csi/act/cosalc/shore-ero.htm

  43. Bruun “Rule”

  44. Limitations of the Bruun “Rule” • Only describes one of the processes affecting sandy beaches • Indirect effect of mean sea level rise • Estuaries and inlets maintain equilibrium • Act as major sinks • Sand eroded from adjacent coast • Increased erosion rates • Response time – best applied over long timescales

  45. Flooding • Increase in flood levels due to rise in sea level • Increase in flood risk • Increase in populations in coastal floodplain • Adaptation • Increase in flood protection • Management and planning in floodplain

  46. Coastal Flood Plain

  47. The Thames Barrier

  48. Models • Top Down • DIVA: Dynamic and Interaction Vulnerability Assessment from DINAS-Coast Project • Older Models • COSMO • RamCo • Common Methodology • Integrated Models • RegIS2 : Development of a metamodel tool for regional integrated climate change management • Bottom-up approaches

  49. Saltmarsh Losses to 2050 Present day loss rate Low Climate Change High Climate Change

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