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Kyoto and Beyond: Economic Impact on Developed Economies

This report discusses the economic impact of implementing the Kyoto Protocol and additional greenhouse gas reductions on developed economies. It presents data on carbon emissions, reduction targets, and the implications for GDP levels in various countries. Alternative strategies to address climate change are also explored, including technology development, tax reforms, sequestration, and bilateral cooperation with developing countries.

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Kyoto and Beyond: Economic Impact on Developed Economies

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  1. Kyoto and Beyond: Economic Impact on Developed Economies Prepared by Dr. Margo Thorning, Managing Director International Council for Capital Formation For presentation at the World Climate Change Conference Moscow, Russia September 29 - October 3 www.iccfglobal.org • mthorning@iccfglobal.org +32.2.401.68.44 tel• +32.2.401.68.68 fax

  2. Carbon Emissions for Developed (Annex B) and Developing Countries: Business-as-Usual Case and Emission Cuts Required to Meet IPCC Target of 550 PPM Using IPCC Data. If Non-Annex B countries do not participate, then Annex B countries must reduce emissions to zero by 2050. This is consistent with UK government reports.

  3. CO2 Reductions Required by 2050 Under 550 PPM Scenario (1998 Base Year) United States Canada Russia Japan European Union Germany United Kingdom Italy France Reduction Required of CO2 (% 1998 Level) -58%

  4. Russian Emissions: What Does the Future Hold? Russian government’s estimate of the emissions required to double GPD by 2010 Kyoto target Millions of metric tonnes of Carbon 627 Baseline emissions estimate Baseline Post-Kyoto target 263

  5. Impact of Kyoto Protocol on GDP Levels in the EU in 2010Alternative Model Forecasts Oxford DRI-WEFA: Spain DRI-WEFA: Germany DRI-WEFA: Netherlands DRI-WEFA: UK G-Cubed MERGE3 ABARE-GTEM MS-MRT PRIMES MARKAL Partial Equilibrium Models % of GDP in 2010 General Equilibrium Models Macroeconomic Models

  6. The Economic Impact on Italy of Implementing the Kyoto Protocol and Additional GHG Reductions Planned for Post-2011

  7. Alternative Strategiesto Address Climate Change • Technology development to reduce energy intensity • Increase Research & Development • Reform tax code to lower the cost of new investment • Sequestration • Enhance natural systems • Develop man-made technologies • Expand the role of nuclear energy • Expand bilateral cooperation with developing countries • Promote a truly global solution

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