Andrew Coates & Tim Price

1. RailplanModelling in Support of TfL London Rail’s HLOS2 Rail Strategy Development An AECOM Presentation International EMME User Conference, London, UK Andrew Coates & Tim Price 23rd February 2010

2. Content of Presentation Context of HLOS – What is it? Current HLOS Commission Corridors Considered Railplan Model Enhancement Future Year Forecasting Model Outputs Business Case Development Conclusions 23rd February 2010

3. Context of HLOS – What is it? HLOS – High Level Output Statement DfT’s statement of what it wants Network Rail to deliver in each 5 year Control Period TfL feed into this process, to specify what it wants to see delivered in the London area AECOM worked with TfL during 2005/6 on it’s ‘Vision 2025’ project, to specify schemes to be implemented during Control Period 4 (2009 to 2014) Railplan Modelling and Business Case Development led to TfL’s input to DfT HLOS1 Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development

4. Current HLOS2 Commission DfT currently considering the specification for HLOS2, for schemes to be delivered in Control Period 5 (2014 to 2019) Therefore TfL re-commissioned AECOM in early 2009 to start looking at rail schemes in and around London area The work involved wider scope than HLOS1, covering not only Railplanmodelling and business case development, but also the rail engineering and operating costs, as well as timetable analysis Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development

5. HLOS2 – Corridors Tested Thameslink (East Midlands) Great Northern West Anglia West Coast Essex Thameside Great Western / Crossrail London Overground High Speed 1 South Western South Eastern South Central Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development Schemes were looked at for individual rail corridors as well as on a London-wide basis

6. Railplan Model Enhancement • TfL’s Public Transport Railplan Model used for demand forecasting and option testing • Railplan Version B5.4 as the starting point • Further model enhancements undertaken during the study: • Zonal and Matrix Disaggregation • Improved Network Coverage • Subsequent Base Year Model Revalidation • Updated Future Year Service Coding • Route Choice at Heathrow • Implementation of HS1 Premium Fares Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development

7. Railplan Zonal Disaggregation & Network Improvement Railplan zoning was disaggregated in the Cambridgeshire / Norfolk area to improve representation for West Anglia and Great Northern routes Disaggregation also took place in the South West area for South West / Great Western area Later in the study some disaggregation took place in Essex for C2C Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development

8. Railplan Zonal Disaggregation & Network Improvement Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development The red dots indicate where additional stations have been added

9. Railplan Model Revalidation • The revalidation focused principally on those areas where zones had been disaggregated • Attention was also given to London terminal arrivals, where significant improvements in validation compared to the existing Railplan B5.4 • Validation for London arrivals undertaken in phases along with the railcorridors that were considered • Subsequent further re-validation undertaken before doing the London Wide tests Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development

10. Railplan Model Revalidation Summary Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development

11. Route Choice at Heathrow Modification • At Heathrow, Railplan B5.4 takes London Transport Airport Model (LTAM) demand • This demand is split by mode, with individual zones connected only to their respective mode nodes, so that the demand is ‘captive’ and not responsive to service change • This poses a problem when testing new schemes, such as those involving Airtrack or variant Crossrail services • Solution was to make service choice available at Heathrow, through • providing a ‘central’ access node at each of the Heathrow terminals • converting the premium fares paid on the relevant services into additional journey time Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development

12. Route Choice at Heathrow Modification (Cont.) Central access node Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development Separate access nodes

13. HS1 Premium Fares • Treatment in the existing Railplan B5.4 • Demand for High Speed 1 (HS1) services estimated outside of Railplan • Captive demand only linked to fixed origin zones • Again not responsive to service changes • Treatment in the Railplan Model for HLOS2 • HS1 services and centroid connectors recoded • An additional time penalty included on HS1 services to represent the premium fare paid • HS1 demand no longer fixed but now able to respond to service changes in the South Eastern area Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development

14. Future Year Forecasting • Reference Cases were updated for each of the standard Railplan forecast years of 2016 and 2026 • Forecasting year option testing involve two Railplan runs • Initial Railplan assignment was undertaken using the fixed Railplan future year demand matrix • Calculation of generated/suppressed trips as a result of the service changes between the two scenarios using an elasticity method • Second Railplan assignment was undertaken using the updated demand matrix • These results of these Railplan runs are fed into scheme impact assessment and business case model Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development

15. Railplan Run 1 – Ref Case Assignment Railplan Run 2 – Test Scenario (pre-elasticity) Assignment Test scenario Time matrix Ref Case scenario Time matrix Apply elasticity to calculate modal shift from car and newly generated trips Railplan Run 3 – Test Scenario (post-elasticity assignment) Calculation of revenue and economic benefits as part of business case development Overview of Elasticity Approach • F – Factor to be applied to the number of trips for a particular demand zone pair • GJTnew– Generalised time in the Test scenario • GJTold– Generalised time in the Reference Case • G – Elasticity. Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development

16. Railplan Model Outputs Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development • Standard Railplan outputs (*.res, *.sta, *.tt etc) • Tabulation of Network Statistics • Change in total demand • Change in passenger boardings by service group and by station • Change in passenger-kms by service group • Change in passenger hours (crowded and un-crowded) • EMME and ENIF Plots • Change in seated and total capacity • Change in service frequency • Change in passenger volumes • Level of crowding (no. of pax standing per sqm of standing space) • Changes to population and employment accessibility • Further outputs as input to Business Case Calculation Tool

17. Example Model Outputs – Network Statistics Summary Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development

18. Example Model Outputs – Passenger Kilometres by Mode and by Service Group Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development

19. Example Model Outputs – Change in Demand Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development

20. National Rail AM Peak Hour Standing Density (pax/sqm) Seats available Busy: 1 to 2 pax/sqm Very Busy: 3 to 4 pax/sqm Some Standing 0 to 1 pax/sqm Crowded 2 to 3 pax/sqm Maximal: 4+ pax/sqm Example Model Outputs - Crowding Before the implementation of the scheme Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development

21. National Rail AM Peak Hour Standing Density (pax/sqm) Seats available Busy: 1 to 2 pax/sqm Very Busy: 3 to 4 pax/sqm Some Standing 0 to 1 pax/sqm Crowded 2 to 3 pax/sqm Maximal: 4+ pax/sqm Example Model Outputs - Crowding After the implementation of the scheme Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development

22. Example Model Outputs – Pop and Emp Accessibility • No. of jobs within 45 mins of residence • Population within 45 mins of employment opportunity • Changes in the average no of jobs within 45 minutes of residence • Changes in population within 45 mins of employment opportunity Test versus Reference Case Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development

23. Business Case Development Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development • A business case calculation tool was developed in spreadsheet • Quantifiable benefits/disbenefits include • Revenue Impact • User Time Savings (Based on Rule-of-half principle) • Accidents • Highway Decongestion Benefits • Noise • Greenhouse Gas Emissions • Local Air Quality Costs • Indirect Taxation • Dwell Time Savings • Bus Operating Costs • Present values of costs and benefits as well as the BC ratios can then be calculated

24. Business Case Development • The Business Case calculation takes Railplan model outputs for both ‘with’ and ‘without’ elasticity method applied, as the input data • Business Case assumptions, parameters and procedure are compliant to WebTAG guidance • The business case results, combined with network demand and capacity analysis, formed the basis for option selection • The preferred schemes were taken forward to a ‘London Wide’ Railplan scenario, and the overall Benefit Cost ratio calculated Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development

25. Conclusions • AECOM was commissioned by TfL LR in support of its development of HLOS2 rail enhancement strategy • Modelling work used TfL’sRailplan B5.4 model as the starting point, with a number of modelling issues identified early in the study • Further improvements to Railplan were undertaken resulting in a re-validated Base Year model and updated future year reference cases • The improved model was then successfully used for assessing impact of service changes to public transport demand and passenger routing choice • A set of Railplan model outputs were generated to assist in option selection and scheme assessment • Business cases were developed for schemes of individual corridors as well as at a London wide level Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development

26. Thank YouAny Questions? 23rd February 2010