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Today’s Energy Reality: “We Are In A Deep Hole”

Lymac Energy Fund-I, LLC. Today’s Energy Reality: “We Are In A Deep Hole”.

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Today’s Energy Reality: “We Are In A Deep Hole”

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  1. Lymac Energy Fund-I, LLC Today’s Energy Reality:“We Are In A Deep Hole” The information in this presentation is a generalized discussion of certain features of the Lymac Energy Fund-I, LLC (“Fund”) and is intended only to serve as an overview. No prospective investor should rely merely upon the following information in determining whether or not to invest in the Fund. This presentation is qualified in its entirety by the more detailed information appearing in the Private Placement Memorandum for the Fund which is not included herewith. The information relating to oil and gas supply and demand and the predictions of an upcoming energy crisis are the opinion of Simmons & Company International and not necessarily agreed upon by other experts in the industry.

  2. Economics 101 High Demand + Low Supply = High Prices

  3. 12 9 3 6 Our Wake-Up Call Is Here • America (and the world) drifted into a “benign energy war.” • Demand was supposed to peak • Oil supplies were to grow cheaply • Cost of energy would steadily fall • It was simply a dream. • The alarm clock is ringing. Simmons & Co International

  4. “Oil has become more and more necessary to everyone. At first it was used for medicine, for lamps, and for lubrication. Now, if the supply of oil were cut off, our manner of living would change completely until something to take its place was found.” (Written in 1935 by Maud and Miska Petersham when the world used 3.5 million barrels of oil each day) A 1935 Oil Prediction(When Global Oil Usage Was 3.5 Million Barrels Per Day)

  5. Spare Capacity Is Disappearing • Wellhead oil and gas • Processing oil and gas • Pipelines and tankers • Drilling rigs • Refinery capacity • People, people, people… All are effectively at 100% Simmons & Co International

  6. The Bigger Picture Problem • Global oil and gas demand set to grow: • 120 million barrels per day by 2020 from 80 million today • Electricity and natural gas growth far higher • Supply was supposedly “No Problem.” • “We have 3 trillion barrels? of usable oil left” • “Saudi Arabia has another 200 billion of proven reserve soon to be added” • This is an energy fantasy. Simmons & Co International

  7. Oil Supply Is Peaking • Peak oil means sustainable, safe production. • Too many key areas of world have now passed peak “conventional supply.” • Russia • Iran • Kuwait • Iraq • North America • North Sea • Venezuela • Indonesia Simmons & Co International

  8. 2020 Is “Nearly Here” • 13-years is not “years from now.” • Most major projects take 5 – 7 years to complete. • Any new frontier takes 10 – 20 years. • To meet 120 million barrels per day by 2020: • Saudi Arabia needs to produce 20 to 25 million barrels per day • Rest of the world production needs to grow from 72 million barrels per day to between 95 and 100 million barrels per day Simmons & Co International

  9. FUTURE(2020) 15.0 MMB/Day 20 – 25 MMB/Day 12.0 MMB/Day 9.611 9.6 MMB/Day 4.5 MMB/Day* Rolling The Dice On Saudi Arabia’s Oil Future *5% net decline per annum Simmons & Co International

  10. Shedding Light on Saudi Arabia’s Oil • 5 super giant oilfields made up 90% of oil output. • 3 giant oilfields made up 8%. • These oilfields are between 40 and 60 years old. • All are reaching point of decline. • Half of “proven reserves” are “questionable.” • Remaining oil is harder to produce. Simmons & Co International

  11. BusinessWeek Online April 5, 2004 Saudi Arabia’s Oil Faces Challenges • Concept that Saudi Arabia could produce 20 million barrels per day was false. • Achieving sustainable 12 million barrels per day is not easy. • Current production not assured to stay constant. • All key fields could begin rapid declines. • Lack of transparency increases risk of surprise. Simmons & Co International

  12. Once Saudi Arabia Peaks… • The world will pass sustained peak oil when Saudi Arabia’s oil output peaks. • Peaking might now be “past tense.” • The higher an “oil system” produces, the faster it peaks and declines. • “Conservation production” is best insurance policy. Simmons & Co International

  13. Natural Gas Is Next Big Surprise • Too many key areas have passed peak supply: • USA • Canada • Russia • Netherlands • Indonesia • Most “stranded gas” has never been discovered. • Gas depletes faster than oil. 65% of current production Simmons & Co International

  14. Even Coal Has Some Limits To Growth • High quality black coal supplies are getting scarce. • Low quality brown coal is next generation supply. • Proven coal reserves have no “quality differential.” • Most reserve estimates are “volumetric estimates.” • Using coal requires intensive energy. Simmons & Co International

  15. We Dug A Deep Energy Hole • Getting into this mess took decades. • The deeper we dig, the higher the risk the hole collapses. • Grasping the magnitude of the problem is urgent. Simmons & Co International

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