The energy challenge adopting clean tech - how quickly can the World change?

1. The energy challenge adopting clean tech - how quickly can the World change? Prof Ray Wills Director and Partner Duda&Wills Chief Adviser Sustainable Energy Association of Australia Adjunct Professor The University of Western Australia

2. About Australia • A warming of 1.0°C is sufficient to move climate belts about 150 km south. A regional temperature change of 2 °C likely to have a serious impact on most life forms, and on most ecosystems and agricultural areas. Changes by 2040

3. About Western Australia

4. About WA • Climate is key determinant of agriculture - changes in climate will impact on crops and livestock. • Rising temperatures will cause a shift in budburst, shorter growing seasons, earlier harvest dates, lower crop quality, changes in soil temperatures. • Wheat growing areas in SW WA seriously impacted • Northern wheatbelt likely to disappear, south reduced. • Wipes out most of an industry worth more than $2 billion. • Climate is a key influence in grape selection. • Shifting rainfall patterns and drier conditions will change the way vineyards operate and reduce the wine crop. • WA produces around 5% of all Australian wine, about 25% of wine in super-premium and ultra-premium categories.

5. Adoption of technology • The natural turnover and retirement of appliances, buildings and vehicles can bring about a modest penetration of sustainable energy in the next ten years. • However, adoption of new technology is often not just ‘natural’ • The transition to sustainable energy, like many new technology shifts, will be more rapid with changes favoured by: • policy measures and regulation; • consumer sentiment; • pricing advantage.

6. Roger’s diffusion curve

7. Technology adoption rates – US • Will electric cars be dishwashers or VCRs? (Will there ever be any more dishwashers??) NY Times

8. Technology adoption rates - vehicles Zoepf 2011

9. Technology adoption rates - vehicles Zoepf 2011

10. Technology adoption - manufacturers Zoepf 2011

11. Technology adoption rates • Can historic deployment rates be used to describe future technologies? Expect some similarities – just faster! • Small-scale deployment for approximately five years- exponential growth and an inflection point ten or more years after first application • Is there an opportunity for disruptive technology entry? • Beginnings of disruptive innovation may be in market innovations, • Vehicle ownership model (eg Better Place) could rapidly change the how and what is purchased • Roof top solar – companies may own the panels on your roof

12. Technology adoption rates www.kickstarter.com

13. Technology adoption rates • Marked decrease in developmental lag • Innovation/development of new products • Supply side capabilities • Market competition • Growing consumer expectations • Higher level of communication between consumers - blogspace • Fleet/building/operations managers – and CFOs • Regulation • Energy security

14. Trends in car prices and CO2 2002-2010 How clean are Europe’s cars?

15. Global investment in electricity

16. Global renewables

17. Renewable energy growth Data IEA

19. Global renewables 2013? Data UNEP

20. Global electricity …

21. Global electricity growth - Europe

22. Australian renewables 2011… • The transformation of Australia’s energy mix has begun – in 2011 new electricity generation construction 25% solar, 31% gas and 33% wind. • Coal-fired power currently 75% of Australia’s total generation - in 2011 only 14% of new investment was coal. • This is still behind the average world-wide investment in renewable energy – China’s economy 8 times larger than Australia, investment in renewables over 20 times larger!

23. Australia’s Clean Energy Future • $5.5 billion Energy Security Package • Energy Security Council • EOI for highest emitting generators • $10 billion Clean Energy Finance Corporation • $9.2 billion Jobs and Competitive Package • $1.2 billion Clean Technology Program • $1 billion Biodiversity Fund and other land-based programs • $330 million for Low Carbon Communities

24. Australia’s Clean Energy Future • MANUFACTURING AND INDUSTRY • $1.2 billion Clean Technology Program including: •  $800 million Clean Technology Investment Program; •  $150 million from the $200 million Food and Foundries; •  $200 million Clean Technology Innovation program. • $300 million Steel Transformation Plan • $200 million Regional Structural Adjustment Fund

25. Australian electricity … Data ABARES

26. Australian electricity consumption 2012…

27. Australian electricity demand 2012… Data AEMO

28. Electricity market projections – WA

29. Solar on Australian homes

30. Sustainable energy and energy efficiency • Energy efficiency in all forms • Distributed, renewable energy • Known costs, resource life 1000++ years • Stored energy in commodities, desal • Energy storage key to: • improved energy delivery • increased reliability • reduced emissions

31. Technology energy use www.epri.com

32. Global electricity growth

33. Rapid change - Personal mobility

34. Private transport • Fuel efficiency, other energy sources • Transport • Energy storage key • New technologies may be disruptive

35. Electric mass transit

36. Commercialvehicles Smith Newton electric truck Mega electric diesel hybrids • London Bus • Haul Pak + Earthmover • Mitsubishi Fuso • Honda prime mover • Oshkosh Military Vehicle

37. Flying and floating fuels • February 25, 2008 – Virgin Atlantic Stages the First Biofuel Flight • October 30, 2007 - U.S.A.F. Tests New Synthetic Fuel on Plane • February 14, 2011 – Qantas follows US Military to algae biofuels • September 13, 2011 – US Navy announces by 2016 Green Strike Group, powered by renewable diesel-electric engines, nuclear power and aviation biofuels, is able to operate independent of fossil fuel supply line threat or disruption

38. Smart grids, smart houses (and farms) • Integrated energy planning • Smart grids to coordinate the actions of devices such as loads & generators

39. Green cities • Global • Tianjin Eco-City China • Ulsan Ecocity Korea • Masdar City UAE • Australia • City of Sydney – 70% CO2 reduction by 2030 • City of Melbourne • Stirling City Centre, Perth • City of Fremantle • Yanchep – 2 x 100 000 • Local government critical

40. www.seaaus.com.au