What is NH?

1. What is NH? Board of Directors Todd I. Selig, Chair Michael Buckley John D. Crosier, Sr. William H. Dunlap Sheila T. Francoeur Chuck Morse Stephen Reno Stuart V. Smith, Jr. Donna Sytek Brian F. Walsh Kimon S. Zachos Martin L. Gross, Chair Emeritus Staff Steve Norton, Executive Director Ryan Tappin Cathy Arredondo “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

3. The History (and Future) of State Budgets In One Slide

4. What do the Economists Say? “We’re on the way back up.”

5. Rosier Projections by NEEP

6. Employment in Portsmouth Source: ELMI, NH Economic Conditions (April 2010)

7. Myths are Barriers to Informed Policy

8. Myth #1 We are a state of natives who have been living here for 100s of years? Source: 2000 Census

9. Median Age Oldest? Maine = 42 Youngest? Utah = 29 Average of US = 37 New Hampshire = 40 NH Rank = 42 Percent Over 65 Oldest? Florida = 17% Youngest? Alaska = 7% Average of US = 13% New Hampshire = 13% NH Rank = 32 Myth #2We are OLD? 2006-2008 American Community Survey 3-Year Estimates 2008 Census Population Estimates

10. Myth #3A State of Small Businesses? Department of Employment Security, 1st Quarter 2008 All Employment, Incl Government

11. Myth # 4The Brain Drain? New Hampshire Age Specific Net Migration, 1990 to 2000

12. Myth #5 – Tourism Drives Our Economy? Manufacturing brings in 4 X as much $ as tourism Source: Larry Goss, Plymouth State University

13. Economic Development as Good State Budget Policy Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

14. Budgetary Impact: Long Term Economic Development Questions • Maintaining Competitive Advantages • Educational Attainment • Demographic Change • Housing Prices • Mitigating Competitive Disadvantages • Energy Costs • Healthcare Costs

15. Where Will Future Growth Occur? Portsmouth

16. Jobs / Economy Changing in Portsmouth

17. The Budget Process and Biennium 2010-2011 Biennium You are here 12-13 08-09 July 1st 2009 June 30th, 2011 June 30th, 2010

18. 36% California New Hampshire Budget Deficits (2009) 8% The Nation New Hampshire 15% The Nation California

19. The Budget Process and Biennium 2010-2011 Biennium You are here 12-13 08-09 July 1st 2009 June 30th, 2011 June 30th, 2010

20. Closing a $295 Million Gap in 2010-2011  2010 • Major Components of 2010 Changes • $25 million in UNH bonding of capital maintenance costs • $80 million advance from 2011 ARRA Revenues • $25 million in executive order savings • 2010 changes represent an effort to move problem off into future, largely 2011.

21. Closing a $295 Million Gap in 2010-2011  2011 $239 Million in Changes Significant Uncertainty Monetization of Assets FMAP Extension DHHS Reorg

22. Use of one time monies creates future funding gap (2012-13) Future Gap

23. How Big a hole in 2012? • Potentially VERY big, with some mitigating factors • Federal response (is ARRA $ one-time only?) • Economic recovery • Three high risk spending areas • Education Adequacy • Retirement System • Social Services Demand

24. And the Potential Response? Spending Reductions Shifting the Burden Revenue Options