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The ‘political economy’ of India’s Urban Environment: a few thoughts

iihs. The ‘political economy’ of India’s Urban Environment: a few thoughts. Aromar Revi New Delhi 25 th March 2011. The 21 st century Indian city: Developing an agenda for Urbanisation. www.iihs.co.in. Mumbai: minimum city…. Slums in the City. Mumbai: a cross-section of Slums.

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The ‘political economy’ of India’s Urban Environment: a few thoughts

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  1. iihs The ‘political economy’ of India’s Urban Environment: a few thoughts Aromar Revi New Delhi 25th March 2011 The 21st century Indian city: Developing an agenda for Urbanisation www.iihs.co.in

  2. Mumbai: minimum city…

  3. Slums in the City Mumbai: a cross-section of Slums Ekvira Nagar, Salt pan land Bharat Nagar and other slums, Raoli Junction Near Airport Ganesh Murty Nagar

  4. Mumbai’s Slum Services: Water Supply Bharat Nagar Shanti Nagar Chikhalwadi Dharavi Ambedkar Nagar

  5. Mumbai’s Slum Services: Solid Waste Garbage dumping place, Andhra Association Garbage Bin, Near Khotwadi Unhygienic surroundings, Anna Nagar Clean Street, Dadabhai Chawl

  6. Mumbai’s formal & informal Land Price differentials Mumbai’s (imputed) land market value estimated in 2005 at ~ Rs. 560,000 crores. Distortions in this market primary factor in the huge (55%+) city slum population

  7. Outcome Mumbai: the slum capital of the world • 7 million+ people living in ‘slums’ • Dysfunctional land & housing markets • Declining quality of public services & security • Tardy transformation of landuse & economic functions • Declining quality of governance • Ecological footprints expanding across the subcontinent • Steady decline in resource-use efficiency • Increasing polarisation of wealth this is clearly unsustainable …

  8. Open Defecation: 0.5 million people per day in Mumbai

  9. RECOMMENDED CONCEPT OPTION: MMR 2031 “City Of Islands”

  10. Comparative long-range Urbanisation trends(1950-2050)

  11. UN World Urbanisation Prospects, 2007 Urbanisation trends: India, China & the USA (1950-2050) India: an dramatic opportunity forbalanced RUrban development

  12. Global Health Risk forecast by risk factor (2005-2060) Source: Hughes et. al., 2011, Improving Global Health, Forecasting for the next 50 Years

  13. The Dynamics of Indian Urbanisation (1951-2031)

  14. 1951 Tibet W. Pakistan Nepal E. Pakistan India Population Size (millions) < 0.1 0.1 – 0.5 0.5 - 1 1 - 5 > 5 Source: Census of India, 1971- 2001 UN, 2007 IIHS analysis, 2009-10

  15. 2011 Delhi (16.9) Urban Population Growth Ahmadabad (5.7) Kolkata (15.5) Mumbai (20) Hyderabad (6.7) Population Size (millions) Pune (5.0) < 0.1 0.1 – 0.5 0.5 - 1 Bangalore (7.2) 1 - 5 Chennai (7.5) > 5 Source: Census of India, 1971- 2001 UN, 2007 IIHS analysis, 2009-10 Large Urban Settlement Growth

  16. 2031 Delhi (24.4) Urban Population Growth Kanpur (5.1) Ahmadabad (8.5) Kolkata (22.3) Surat (6.3) Mumbai (28.6) Hyderabad (9.9) Population Size (millions) Pune (7.4) < 0.1 0.1 – 0.5 0.5 - 1 Bangalore (10.6) 1 - 5 Chennai (11.1) > 5 Source: Census of India, 1971-2001 UN, 2007 IIHS analysis, 2009-10 Large Urban Settlement Growth

  17. The Growth of India’s Urban Economy(1991-2031)

  18. Rs 735 lakh crores Rs. 1450 lakh crores

  19. Indian Cities & the global 21st century Sustainability transition

  20. Present consumption requires ~2.0 worlds • 21st century Population growth needs 1.5+ worlds Available only One World • Ending poverty at present throughput ~2.0 worlds The Challenge of the 21st century Sustainability Transition This transition will be played out in Indian & Chinese cities

  21. 20th century pre-emption of ‘ecological space’ (1900-2004) ∆ Order of Magnitude + Cumulative Carbon emissions over the 20th century potentially pre-empts ecological & hence human development ‘space’ in the global South

  22. Can Services-sector led growth enable a Sustainability Transition? Services-sector growth led to very different outcomes in the US, Japan & Germany. China has chosen a conventional manufacturing-export led strategy unlike India

  23. Ecological Footprint vs. HDI (1975) ‘Sustainable Development’ The ‘holy grail’ of national Sustainable Development aHDIof ~0.9 &Ecological Footprint of1 global Ha/per capita

  24. The Sustainability transition will be fought & won in cities Early 21st century ‘tunnelling through’ will be foughtand won in Asianand‘emerging economy’urban areas and around new metabolisms, economies andsufficiencies

  25. Future History - Sustainability Transitions: 2005  ‘Sustainable Development’ Can China traverse theenvironmental Kuznets curve; Germany & USA converge withoutserious Human Development declineIndia ‘tunnel through’; or will there be serious international ‘resource’ conflict?

  26. A new form of urbanisation?

  27. India’s Settlement structure matched to deliver Climate adaptation & mitigation co-benefits Revi, 2010 ~ 7,800 urban areas and ~ 0.55 million rural settlements in 20011 – the opportunity for decentralised production and consumption systems and economic structure

  28. Catalysing five national outcomes by the 2030s ‘Inclusive’ Economic Growth Reduced Poverty and Inequality Social Transformation Environmental Sustainability Unified & Robust Polity

  29. Who really ‘manages’ Urban India? • Top Management • MPs & MLAs 5,300 • Higher Judiciary 650 • IAS & IPS 8,200 • CXOs (top 500 corporates) ~ 5,000 • NGO leadership ~ 1,750 • Total 20,900 • % educated & trained in urban practice < 5% • Middle Management • Senior Municipal officials ~ 4,000 • Senior Engineers ~ 8,000 • Urban Planners ~ 2,000 • Total ~ 14,000 • % educated & trained in urban practice < 20%

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