1 / 24

Accelerating improvements in the accuracy of one-day to two weeks high-impact weather forecasts for the benefit of soc

2005 2014… Accelerating improvements in the accuracy of one-day to two weeks high-impact weather forecasts for the benefit of society, economy and environment

bernad
Download Presentation

Accelerating improvements in the accuracy of one-day to two weeks high-impact weather forecasts for the benefit of soc

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. 2005 2014… Accelerating improvements in the accuracy of one-day to two weeks high-impact weather forecasts for the benefit of society, economy and environment A photographic collage depicting the societal, economic and ecological impacts of severe weather associated with four Rossby wave-trains that encircled the globe during November 2002. OOPC PRESENTATION

  2. What is THORPEX? • THORPEX was established in May 2003 by the Fourteenth World Meteorological Congress as a ten-year international global atmospheric research and development programme under the auspices of the WMO Commission for Atmospheric Sciences (CAS). • THORPEX is a part of the WMO World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) • The acronym! • THe Observing System Research and Predictability EXperiment

  3. Why? • To reduce and mitigate natural disasters; • To fully realise the societal and economic benefits of improved weather forecasts especially in developing and least developed countries. This is achievable by transforming timely and accurate weather forecasts(1) into specific and definite information in support of decisions(2) that produce the desired societal and economic outcomes(3) • Extending the range of skilful weather forecasts to time scales of value in decision-making (up to 14 days) using probabilistic ensemble forecast techniques; • Developing accurate and timely weather warnings in a form that can be readily used in decision-making support tools; • Assessing the impact of weather forecasts and associated outcomes on the development of mitigation strategies to minimise the impact of natural hazards.

  4. Mission THORPEX is an international research programme of WMO aimed at extending the limits of predictability, and at increasing the accuracy of high-impact weather forecasts from day 1 to day 14. THORPEX builds upon ongoing advances within the basic-research and operational-forecasting communities. It will make progress by enhancing international collaboration between these communities, such as WGNE/WWRP/CBS and with users of forecast products.

  5. Principal Tasks THORPEX International Science Plan Research on weather forecasts from 1 to 14 days lead time 4 research sub-programmes: • Predictability and Dynamical Processes; • Observing Systems; • Data Assimilation and Observing Strategies; • Societal and Economic Applications Full version of THORPEX International Science Plan www.wmo.int/thorpex/mission.html

  6. Principal Tasks THORPEX International Science Plan • Emphasis on ensemble prediction • Emphasis on global-to-regional influences on weather forecast skill • Interactive forecast systems “tuned” for end users using targeted observations called on in ‘sensitive areas’, adaptive data assimilation, grid computing

  7. Principal Tasks THORPEX International Science Plan • THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble • Polar Regions (IPY) Atmospheric predictability in the Polar Regions and those parts of the world influenced by the Polar Regions, understanding specific weather phenomena, improving the use of satellite and in situ data from high latitudes • THORPEX-COPES THORPEX and WCRP bridge weather and climate forecasting into seamless predictions from day to decade • THORPEX Regional Campaigns - the 2003 A-TReC ( consistent forecast improvements) - Pacific- TReC ( in planning phase)

  8. Implementation THORPEX International Implementation Plan Approved by the ICSC on 2 December 2004. Connected with • WWW, DPM, WMO Space Programme, WCRP, WCP, HWR, AMP • Regional research programmes • International initiatives (e.g. IPY, GEOSS); www.wmo.int/thorpex/implementation.html

  9. Implementation PlanPredictability And Dynamical Processes

  10. Implementation PlanObserving System

  11. Implementation PlanData Assimilation and Observing Strategies

  12. Implementation PlanSocial and Economic Applications

  13. Implementation PlanGlobal Interactive Forecast System

  14. Goals Projects Time Scale (Years) 2 6 10 Coordinate development of observing systems for weather and climate prediction Compare observing needs of weather and climate forecasting Develop synergistic observing practices for weather and climate forecasting Optimize observing networks for weather and climate forecasting Development of unified weather-climate data assimilation and prediction system Study coupled ocean-land-atmosphere model initialization and model drift problems Demonstrated improvement in forecast skill in critical range through use of atmosphere, land and oceanic initial conditions Convergence of weather and climate forecasts: Coupled ocean-atmosphere-land forecast model application on scales of 1-70 days Develop tools for seamless socio-economic applications of weather and climate forecast Compare weather and climate forecast applications Develop application tools suitable with both weather and climate forecasting Demonstrate value of seamless weather-climate forecast applications Implementation PlanIntersection with Climate

  15. Intersection with climate • Envisage a unified approach to weather-climate forecasting ( within 10 yrs) • Calls for much closer collaboration between these communities • THORPEX will help build links to achieve more skilful forecasts in the 10-60 day range

  16. SYNERGISTIC Observing System • Observational needs of weather/climate forecasting and monitoring overlap • Both need definition of the upper layers of the ocean – as well as atmosphere/land for initial conditions • Traditionally observational needs have discussed/evaluated in separate contexts • We need a synergistic use of limited observational resources • THORPEX ia ready to work with the developers of the climate observing system

  17. An Approach • Consider performance measures for both applications that could be used in optimising the observing network • Assess observational needs in a common framework seeking to optimise systems to satisfy both communities • Explore observing techniques- e.g. adaptive observations • Improve timeliness of ocean data to coupled ocean-land models( few hours) • Begin integrations at high resolution switching to lower after a few weeks.

  18. Implementation PlanDemonstration Projects • Demonstrate social and economic benefits that would result from the operational implementation of new forecasting tools and techniques • Disaster mitigation and reduction in developing and least developed countries (e.g., Flood response) • Economic efficiency in developed countries (e.g. Energy generation) • 4 components to these projects: • The ensemble forecasting system, which provides a probabilistic forecast; • An interpreted weather forecast; • Decision support tools derived from the probabilistic forecast; and • Evaluation of the use of the decision support tool. • Candidate projects: • Global Prediction; Flood Mitigation in Europe (France flash floods), Chile, South East Asia; Water Management in North Africa and Middle East, Increasing Efficiency in Electrical Generation in North America, Special Events (Beijing Olympics Games), Sand and Dust Storm Research and other projects (in development).

  19. Implementation PlanManagement, Support, Resources • Management Plan • Data Management and Policy • Financial Plan • Implementation Schedule Resources • Voluntary contributions of participating countries (national budgets) in support of activities; • Support of IPO and priority activities – WMO Trust Fund (USA, Canada, United Kingdom,France, China, Norway), secondments of experts to the IPO (China, other plans…); • Mobilisation of external resources

  20. THORPEX and international initiatives • THORPEX is the research meteorological component of the International Polar Year 2007-2008 • Atmospheric predictability in the Polar Regions • Improving use of satellite and in situ data from high latitudes • THORPEX sets observational requirements for weather prediction -> GEOSS • THORPEX is one of the key contributors to the WMO Natural Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Programme -> ISDR

  21. How is it Organised? – Implementation phase

  22. How is it Organised? – Implementation phase • WMO/CAS ICSC • Senior representatives of leading nations • Chairs of Regional Committees • Chairs of relevant programmes committees • SSC/WWRP, CBS, JSC/CAS WGNE, (JSC/WCRP), ISSC • Senior representatives of participating international organisations • ECMWF, CGMS, EUMETNET • Regional Committees (North American, European, Asian) • National entities • Subcommittees on IPY, Resource Mobilisation • Coordinators of major THORPEX sub-programmes • Leaders of demonstration projects • International Programme Office at the WMO Secretariat

  23. Current members of the ICSC • Australia • Canada • China • France • Germany • India • Japan • Morocco • Norway • Republic of Korea • Russian Federation • South Africa • United Kingdom • USA • SSC/WWRP • CBS • JSC/WCRP • CAS/JSC WGNE • ECMWF • EUMETNET • CGMS

  24. The Way Forward • Feedback/comments/advice? • Best approach to establishing effective links – contact points? • Future planning, communication and collaboration • Support for the TReCs etc.,

More Related