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Modelling Sector Demands

Modelling Sector Demands. P.R. Shukla. Integrated Bottom-Up Modeling System. End-use Sub-Sector Models (AIM). Long-term Supply & Demand Technology-Mix, Fuel-Mix, Emission, Cost. Energy Sector Optimization Model (MARKAL). Long-Term Demand Projection Model. End-use Demand.

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Modelling Sector Demands

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  1. Modelling Sector Demands P.R. Shukla

  2. Integrated Bottom-Up Modeling System End-use Sub-Sector Models (AIM) Long-term Supply & Demand Technology-Mix, Fuel-Mix, Emission, Cost Energy Sector Optimization Model (MARKAL) Long-Term Demand Projection Model End-use Demand Technology Shares Industry Transport Agriculture Residential Commercial Steel Urban Rural Cement Aluminum Sugar Paper Brick Chlor-Alkali Textiles Fertilizer Others

  3. Sectors in Indian AIM/ENDUSE Model End-use Sub-Sector Models (AIM) Indian Economy Industry Transport Agriculture Residential Commercial Steel Urban Rural Cement Aluminum Sugar Paper Brick Chlor-Alkali Textiles Fertilizer Others

  4. AIM/ENDUSE Model for India: Demand Projections

  5. Sectoral Demand Projection: Logistic Regression Demand Projection for Steel exp(a + bt) Yt = Y0 120 1+exp(a + bt) 100 In ((Yt / Yo)/(1- Yt / Yo)) = a + bt t = time period Yt = level of demand at time t Y0 = asymptotic limit for the demand Yt a,b : Parameters to be estimated 80 60 Steel (million ton) 40 20 0 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055

  6. GVA Charts

  7. GDP

  8. Industry GVA

  9. Transport GVA

  10. Commercial GVA

  11. Agriculture GVA

  12. PFCE

  13. Steel Process Figure

  14. Steel Demand Projection

  15. Aluminum Demand Projection

  16. Cement Process Figure

  17. Cement Demand Projection

  18. Paper Process Figure

  19. PaperDemand Projection

  20. Brick Process Figure

  21. Brick Demand Projection

  22. Fertilizer Demand Projection

  23. Caustic SodaProcess Figure

  24. Caustic SodaDemand Projection

  25. Soda AshDemand Projection

  26. SugarDemand Projection

  27. Textile Demand Projection

  28. Transport Technology Options ROAD Vehicles PASSENGER GOODS 2-Wheeler Heavy Truck (Diesel) 3-Wheeler Light Truck (Diesel) Petrol Car Heavy Truck (CNG) Diesel Car Light Truck (CNG) CNG Car • RAIL Vehicles • Steam Loco • Diesel Loco • Electric Loco

  29. Gasoline 2-W Road PKMS 3-W Heavy Oil 4-W Road TKMS Bus Diesel HCV LCV Rail PKMS CNG Diesel Train Electricity Rail TKMS Electric Train Coal Steam Train Air PKMS Passenger Aircraft ATF Ship Water TKMS Reference Energy System for Transport

  30. Growth of Traffic in India Passenger (Billion PKms) Goods (Billion TKms)

  31. Road Freight Demand Projections

  32. Road Passenger Demand Projections

  33. Air Passenger Transport Demand Projections

  34. Ship Freight Transport Demand Projections

  35. Rail Passenger Transport Demand Projections

  36. Rail Freight Transport Demand Projections

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