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Robot Cars and where they can take us

Brad Templeton Chicken, Chicken (& Foresight Institute) ‏ bradt@eff.org. Robot Cars and where they can take us. Robocars are coming. No longer Science Fiction A question of when, not if The overwhelming arguments for them Green, green, green, safe, safe, safe

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Robot Cars and where they can take us

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  1. Brad Templeton Chicken, Chicken (& Foresight Institute)‏ bradt@eff.org Robot Cars and where they can take us

  2. Robocars are coming • No longer Science Fiction • A question of when, not if • The overwhelming arguments for them • Green, green, green, safe, safe, safe • The implications for mass transit

  3. They're coming • DARPA Grand Challenge #1: Total failure • DARPA Grand Challenge #2: Five cars • Urban Challenge – 3 winners • Videos • Autonomous, not centrally controlled

  4. Arguments For it Death toll, Death toll, Death toll And don’t forget the maiming! Geeks can save the planet

  5. Accidents • Kill 45,000 in USA, 1M worldwide, injure far more • Cost 230 billion dollars (over 2% of GDP) • Every year we delay, another million die.

  6. Congestion • Congestion wastes 4 to 8 billion hours, 6 billion gallons • Just timed lights improves city gas mileage 30% • Hours spent driving -- 50 billion, 10% of total working hours, 5% of waking

  7. Infrastructure • Parking • Real Estate • Environment -- 25% of greenhouse gasses

  8. Speed and Comfort

  9. Death toll

  10. Self Delivery Almost as important as self-driving

  11. The Robotaxi And the WhistleCar

  12. Cell phone summoned If what you need isn't close, something that is close takes you to it

  13. Right Vehicle 10-mile electric trike to pickup truck to van to SUV to bus

  14. Most common – the minicar

  15. Private cars for hire • Custom memory for your preferences • Your box of stuff, robot loaded

  16. Parks itself, Charges or refuels itself • Parks more effeciently, even in driveways • Solves the battery problem • Allows experimental fuels with vastly less infrastructure

  17. Special features • Gentle acceleration, constant speed • Gimbaled turns • Super-soft suspension

  18. Compared to other forms

  19. Infrastructure already in place (compare with PRT or other private ROWs)

  20. The private individuals pay for it • No hugely expensive ROW needed • Already more capacity than needed

  21. Almost every advantage transit has …including one it doesn’t actually have

  22. Greener • Cars: 3500 btu/passenger-mile • Bus: Also 3500. Trolleybus: 3200 • Light rail: 1500 to 7000 • Heavy Rail: 2200 to 6000. NYC: 3300 • Electric Car: 500-700 • Lightweight electric trike: 300 • Cyclist: 145. Beefeater - about 6,000. • Pedestrian: 300. Beefeater - about 12,000

  23. Light Rail Energy Use

  24. More advantages • No parking • No congestion • Read/Work • Don't need licence • Don't need to own a car • Cheap • Safer from accidents

  25. Almost every advantage private cars have

  26. Roadmap to get there

  27. Drive by wire car

  28. Self parking car Lexus LS460-L

  29. BMW 5 and 7Auto-spacing cruise control Audi, Volvo S80 Lane change warning Infiniti Lane departure prevention Mercedes Pre-Safe applies brakes before accident. Lexus pre-collision similar

  30. Robovalet Garage (Home garage 5' high) Military use in parallel

  31. Accident-avoiding car (somewhat negates death toll.)

  32. Special lanes

  33. School of Fish

  34. Deliverbot

  35. Whistlecar

  36. Autopilot w/ human oversight

  37. Allowed on regular streets The lobbies…

  38. Robocar only lanes

  39. Robocar only streets

  40. Robocar only zones

  41. Sleeper cars

  42. Superlightweights

  43. Time for Apollo Project • A major leader, somewhere, must declare the charge. • Do it not because it’s easy but because it’s hard • May well happen in Japan, India or China first

  44. All I have time for, but • Barriers • Downsides • Engineering Changes • Deliverbots • http://www.templetons.com/brad/robocars/

  45. Barriers • Law • Fear • Liability • Terrorists • Technology • Software reliability

  46. Downsides • Health • Restructuring of cities, less walking • People taking longer trips, empty trips • Computer Intrusion and Mass Failure • Reworking of car culture • Privacy • Freedom • Jobs

  47. Engineering Changes • Range not a factor • Acceleration and speed not a factor • Comfort much more of a factor, soft ride. • Want to be sharable • Different safety constraints • Small width, face-to-face

  48. Deliverbots • In military, then on back streets • No need to own expensive, rarely used goods • Vast alteration of the nature of retail • Also changes, airports, farms etc.

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