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Association of Week 2 Forecast Skills with Persistent Flow Regimes

This study examines the association between persistent flow regimes and week 2 forecast skills in the Atlantic/European sector. The extent of persistence in each season, impact of regimes on forecast skill, and historical record of each regime are assessed. Higher score regimes are found to have better forecast skills, while weaker regimes show very low skill.

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Association of Week 2 Forecast Skills with Persistent Flow Regimes

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  1. Association of Week 2 Forecast Skills with Persistent Flow Regimes Wilbur Y. Chen Climate Prediction Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA

  2. AC skill record shows long stretch of High/Low score sections

  3. Regime behavior Forecast Verification

  4. Regime behavior Forecast Verification

  5. Extent of persistence

  6. Regime 1 2 3

  7. Extent of Persistence in each NDJF season

  8. Isolated persistent flow regimes Among them AC < 0.8

  9. History (1971 – 2000) of each Persistent Flow Regime

  10. Week.2 Forecasts are assessed for Regime Impact on Forecast Skill

  11. Impact of a regime on wk.2 fcst skill Regimes the Model predicts better Regimes the model predicts less well

  12. Impact of a regime on wk.2 fcst skill Skill for higher score regimes Skill for lower score regimes Very low skill for weak and weaker Persistent Flow Regimes

  13. For Atlantic/ European sector

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