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Research Project Overview

Introduction to Homeland Security. Research Project Overview. Overview and Templates. Risk. Three questions to ask when considering risk: What can happen? How likely is it? (probability) What are the consequences? Risk = the probability of occurrence x the consequences. Risk (cont.).

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Research Project Overview

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  1. Introduction to Homeland Security Research Project Overview Overview and Templates

  2. Risk • Three questions to ask when considering risk: • What can happen? • How likely is it? (probability) • What are the consequences? • Risk = the probability of occurrence x the consequences

  3. Risk (cont.) • Probability most difficult to determine • Often based more on expert judgment than concrete evidence • Can use historical data to calculate probability

  4. Risk (cont.) • Example of probability estimates • Certain: >99% chance of occurring in a given year (One or more occurrence a year) • Likely: 50-99% chance of occurring in a given year (One occurrence every 1 to 2 years) • Possible: 5-49%chance of occurring in a given year (One occurrence every 2 to 20 years) • Unlikely: 2-5% chance of occurring in a given year (One occurrence every 20 to 50 years) • Rare: 1-2% chance of occurring in a given year (One occurrence every 50 to 100 years) • Extremely Rare: <1%chance of occurring in a given year (One occurrence every 100 or more years)

  5. Risk (cont.) • Consequences: a measure of expected disaster impacts • Tangible – loss of life, property • Intangible – psychological impact, morale • Difficult to quantify • Once factors are determined, it is possible to compare risks • Risk matrix

  6. Example Risk Matrix

  7. CIKR Project Template • The following is a suggested CIKR project format • Use the previous risk matrix to evaluate your site • Multiply the numbers in the parentheses in the Likelihood axis by the number in the Consequences axis • This will give you your overall risk

  8. CIKR Description Template • Location • Map or maps? • Photos? • Description/Function • What does it do? • What is its function? • NOTE: Do not give a history of the site unless it is a necessary part of its description • Justification as a CIKR • Why is it important?

  9. Hazard Evaluation Template(There should be one for each hazard that is evaluated ) • Hazard (e.g. – 5.0/moderate earthquake, cat. 2 hurricane, power outage, etc.) • Likelihood • Value • Justification (how you arrived at the value) • Consequence • Value • Description (what exactly could/might happen) • Justification (how you arrived at the value) • Total Risk Number • Ranking • __ out of __ (of all the risks you are evaluating) • Discussion/evaluation of mitigation/preparedness/ prevention efforts (if any)

  10. Risk (cont.) • Once risk is identified, how can it be mitigated? • Risk managers try to reduce either or both: • Probability • Consequence

  11. Mitigation • Mitigation: a sustained action to reduce or eliminate risk to people & property from hazards & their effects • Mitigation activities address either or both components of risk • Probability (likelihood) • Consequence • Mitigating either one reduces the threat

  12. Prevention Actions & Programs • Prevention: actions taken to avoid an incident or intervening to stop an incident from occurring, in an effort to save lives & property • National Response Framework (NRF) may be implemented for threats or potential incidents of national significance to prevent or intervene in order to lessen the impact of an incident

  13. Prevention Actions & Programs (cont.) • Prevention activities may include: • Heightened inspections • Improved surveillance & security operations • Public health & agricultural surveillance & testing • Immunizations, isolation, or quarantine • Specific law enforcement operations aimed at deterring, preempting, interdicting, or disrupting illegal activity & apprehending potential perpetrators & bringing them to justice

  14. Prevention Actions & Programs (cont.) • Most prevention activities are related to terrorism • As defined w/in the NRF, any activity that intends to prevent terrorist attacks can be qualified as a prevention measure

  15. Preparedness • Preparedness: a state of readiness to respond to a disaster, crisis, or any other type of emergency situation • Preparedness activities can be categorized as the human component of hazard management • Most common: • Training • Public Education • They do little to prevent a disaster, but are very effective at ensuring that people know what to do once one has happened

  16. Preparedness Actions & Programs • Preparedness: • It includes those activities, programs, & systems that exist before an emergency that are used to support & enhance response to an emergency or disaster • Evacuation drills • First responder training

  17. Preparedness (cont.) • Important part of the EM cycle • Provides for the readiness & testing of all actions & plans prior to actual application in a real event or disaster • Close connection between mitigation & preparedness • Difference can sometimes be unclear • Preparedness is the planning for best response • Mitigation is all efforts to prevent or lessen the need for response

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