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TOLERATE

TOLERATE. Progress August 2007 – January 2008 Adriaan Perrels & Tarja Tuovinen . Regional scenario (Satakunta): Economic Demographic Buildings – residential/non-residential Land use Damage calculations Direct – in flood areas by return time and CC/FC Indirect / induced effects

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TOLERATE

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  1. TOLERATE Progress August 2007 – January 2008 Adriaan Perrels & Tarja Tuovinen

  2. Regional scenario (Satakunta): Economic Demographic Buildings – residential/non-residential Land use Damage calculations Direct – in flood areas by return time and CC/FC Indirect / induced effects Handling risk Cost and benefits of alternative options Trade-offs and MCA Topics With SYKE With VTT

  3. Demographics Source: Tilastokeskus, 2007

  4. Economics Growth rates of GDP Source: VATT, 2007 Structure of the regional economy (Satakunta)

  5. Building stock * *) Figures match quite well with the new Pori land use plan Source: KulMaKunta 2006 & VATT, 2007 Surface area of office buildings 2005-2040: +11% Surface area of shops etc. 2005-2040: +15% Value added/m2 grows by 30% to 70% depending on the sector

  6. Land use plans of Pori and Salo run until 2025 / 2030 Location of building stock expansion is only vaguely defined and involves also expansion in flood prone areas > discussion with municipalities Land use Source: Municipalities / SYKE

  7. Pori: For current (CC) and future climate (FC) conditions by R = 50 and R = 250 by sea level 1m. and 2m. Assumptions for: cost / m2 per building type for: damage; cleaning; interior compartimentation of flooding clean-up time (from survey) production restart time lapse (survey) degree of spatial and temporal substitution (survey) cost of temporary residence Production loss for several services (e.g. retail) still to be assessed Uncertainty about flood duration (emptying?) and embankment failure Costs of Floods

  8. R = 250 flood in nowadays Pori and climate: 80 mln. ~ 200 mln. (damage; suspended production) R = 250 flood in future (2040) Pori and climate: 160 mln. ~ 400 mln. (damage; suspended production) R = 50 flood costs are 50% (northern side) to 10% (southern side) of R = 250 cost levels Above variations relate to number/location of dike failures and assumed sea level near estuary Return of heavy (and lasting) frost directly after flooding and/or contamination of river water would have a dramatic effect on direct and induced costs Induced losses on Satakunta economy: approx. 1.3 ~ 1.5 x (part of damage + production losses) No changes in the building stock for future cost Cost of spatial rearrangements? Costs of Floods

  9. Scenario needs among decision makers regarding climate change adaptation strategies (VATT) Scan of scenarios (done) Survey (form to be sent) Summery report in February Interactive decision making simulation 31-1 (VTT/VATT) (Riitta Molarius) TOLERATE +

  10. Progress

  11. Run iterations -> framework

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