CEEN 590 Actor Dynamics

1. CEEN 590 Actor Dynamics

2. Today’s agenda • Policy Cycle • Government actors - incentives • Interest Groups • Interests • Resources • Strategies

3. Agenda-Setting Policy Formulation Decisionmaking Policy Implementation Monitoring and Evaluation Policy Cycle Model

4. Agenda-Setting – Definitions • Social Agenda (general, systemic): issues that the public thinks deserve attention from government • measures: polls, media • Formal Agenda (government): issues explicitly up for active and serious consideration by policy makers • measures: announced proposals, throne speech

5. Agenda-Setting - Process • Kingdon’s “streams” model: a confluence of • Problem stream • Politics stream • Policy (solution) stream • Opens a “policy window” • Opportunity for “policy entrepreneurs”

6. Agenda-Setting - Process • Changes in “Problem” • indicators • knowledge, technology • focusing event • Changes in “Politics” • changing public mood • elections • interest group strategies

7. Agenda-Setting Policy Formulation Decisionmaking Policy Implementation Monitoring and Evaluation Policy Cycle Model

8. Policy Formulation Thinking Talking Consultation with stakeholders • Policy analysis of alternatives

9. Implementation – conditions for success • Clear, consistent objectives • Sound causal theory • Adequate administrative authority • Committed, skillful implementers • Support from stakeholders • Facilitative socio-economic conditions

10. Interest groups in context • Strategic actors • Government • Elected officials • Bureaucrats • Non-government interest groups

11. Government Actors -Interests, Resources: Politicians • resource: authority • Objectives: reelection, policy objectives, power • reelection comes first -- fundamental constraint • effect: public opinion matters

12. The Impact of Public Opinion on Public Policy: BURSTEIN • impact of public opinion is substantial • salience enhances the impact of public opinion • impact of opinion remains strong even when the activities of political organizations and elites are taken into account • responsiveness appears not to have changed significantly over time

13. Government Actors –Interests, Resources: Bureaucrats • resources • authority • expertise • objectives • policy objectives • power (budgets, jurisdiction) • autonomy

14. Stakeholders • Some not formally organized as groups • Stakeholder attributes • Power • Legitimacy • Urgency • Position value (favor, oppose, neutral) • Vested interest impact level • Level of impact • Probability of impact Power/Interest Grid

15. Interest Groups • energy firms • trade associations • environmental NGOs • aboriginal groups • consumer groups (?) • List of actors

16. What are the interests of your group?

17. Value orientations 5 - Strong environmental values 3 - neutral 4- Moderate environmental values 1 - Strong pro development values 2 - moderate pro development values On a scale from 1 to 5, with 1 being extremely supportive of energy development and 5 being extremely supportive of environmental conservation, how would you rate your simulation group's values?

18. Group Resources • money • expertise (substance, process) • skilled leadership (effective, charismatic) • appealing cause • public opinion • contacts • control over investment, jobs

19. Group Resources – The Privileged Position of Business • control over investment, jobs • government seeks reelection • reelection depends on jobs, healthy economy • jobs, growth created by investment • investment a function of business climate • government constrained from undermining business climate

20. What resources does your group have to influence public policy?

21. Actors Strategies – First orderadopt those most likely to advance their interests • lobby • influence public opinion • through media • influence market behaviour • finance elections • litigation • form coalitions • direct action (demonstrations, civil disobedience)

22. Actors Strategies II – Second Order • change the rules of the game within an arena • Expanding participation • shift the venue to another arena • Legislature to cabinet • Provincial to federal • Domestic to international • Government to market • idea-based strategies to reframe problem • in framing arguments, actors appeal to widely shared values and expert authority • “green jobs” • Dirty oil vs ethical oil • NextGen Climate ad

23. Group Strategies - Pralle

24. Political Risk Analysis

25. CAPP 2012

26. The Five Major Projects

27. Pipeline capacity vs oil sands growth

28. Analytical Framework • Veto points • Any institution with authority to block project • Problem structure – distribution of costs and benefits • Are impacts concentrated or diffuse • Concentrated: oil spills, industry profits • Diffuse: climate impacts, tax revenues • Are environmental risks and economic benefits separated across veto points

29. Political Risk Factors • the probability of success of any particular proposal depends on the relative balance of power of the pro- and anti-pipeline coalitions within the relevant jurisdictions.   Political risk is a function of: • number of institutional veto points • whetheropposition groups have access to veto points • whether the project can take advantage of existing infrastructure • the salience of place-based, concentrated environmental risks • the jurisdictional separation of risks and benefits

30. Strategic Actors • Pipeline companies • Oil sands companies • Refineries • Environmentalists • Spill risks • climate • Aboriginal groups • Landowners • Governments

31. Institutions United States Canada Conservative Majority Leader-centred parliamentary system Enabling legislation Provincial control of land and resources Federal paramountcy First Nations with strong rights • Divided government • Presidential government • Adversarial legalism • State control of pipeline siting

33. Wrap up • Policy cycle • Actors • Interests • Resources • Strategies • Political Risk Analysis • Next up: policy analysis • Case study on NGP • divide work over impacts