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Probability

Probability. Grade 9G. Members. Members. ARDI DAMAR JAGAT (05) ADISURYA WIJAYA (03) AGUNG WICAKSANA (30) COK SEDANA YOGA (27) YOGA SURYAWAN (32). Concept Map. Concept Map. Definition of Probability. Expected Frequency. PROBABILITY. Range of Probability.

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Probability

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  1. Probability Grade 9G

  2. Members Members • ARDI DAMAR JAGAT (05) • ADISURYA WIJAYA (03) • AGUNG WICAKSANA (30) • COK SEDANA YOGA (27) • YOGA SURYAWAN (32)

  3. Concept Map Concept Map Definition of Probability Expected Frequency PROBABILITY Range of Probability Probability Value Limitation of Probability Relative Frequency Complement of an event Probability Formula

  4. What is The Definition? Definition : Probability is a chance of an event, equals the number of times it happens divided by the number of opportunities. Atau: kesempatandarisuatuperistiwa, samadenganberapa kali halituterjadi, dibagidenganjumlahpeluang.

  5. EXAMPLE OF PROBABILITY Look at the following statements : • This afternoon might be rainy • Surya might score a goal in football game tomorrow • Depending on the vote, Jokowi might be the next governor

  6. Random Event Random event is an event of some activity that people do to gain results with randomize, raffling, or choosing something, where the result is known after the activity happened.

  7. Sample Space and Sample Point of an Event When you throw a coin , sides that probably will show up are the value side(A) and the picture side (G). If the sides are determined by a sets S, into S={A,G}. The set of all result that is possible of an experiment is called Sample Space, the symbol is S. Each members of Sample space is called Sample Point. Members of Sample Point is determined with n(S)

  8. Calculating Probability Value : Calculating probability value can be solved with 2 formulas : 1. Relative Frequency P(A) = Number of “A” situation Number of Experiment P(A)= Probability of “A” event

  9. Example : • When you throw a coin 12 times, eventually the tail side appears 8 times. Find the relative frequency ! Answer : P(Tail side) = Number where tail side shows = 8 = 2 Tossing coin experiment 12 3

  10. 2. Probability formula Stating probability value of a situation on an experiment can be determined with this formulas : P(A) = Probability value of A event n(A) = Number of random situation on question n(S) = Number of possible situation

  11. Example : • When throwing 3 coins experiment at once, determine probability of an appearance two tail sides (A) and one head side (G). Answer : Sample Point = {AAG,AGA, AGA} = 3 Sample Space ={AAA,AAG,AGA, GAA, GAG, GGA, AGG,GGG} = 8 So P( 2 number sides , 1 picture side ) = 3

  12. Range of Probability: • Limit of Probability is possibility of an event (P) fulfill the properties, which means that if P = 0, the incident never happened, or is an impossibility if P = 1, then the event is a certainty. • Complement of an event is an opposite of a probability that will happen. The symbol is used with an accent symbol (‘) Note : A = Is an event where A happens, A’ = Is an event where A doesn’t happen.

  13. Example of Complement of an event : • Chance where Maudy passes the exam is 0,93. What is the chance where Maudy doesn’t pass the exam ? Answer : P(Doesn’t pass) = 1 – P(passes) = 1 – 0,93 = 0, 07% • If a chance of a kid late at school is 0,038. What is the percentage of probability where the kid doesn’t late at school ? Answer : P(Doesn’t late) = 1 – P ( late) = 1 – 0,038 = 0, 962%

  14. Expected Frequency Fe (A) = P (A) x N Fe (A) = Expected frequency of A event P(A) = Probability of A event N = Number of experiment Have you ever send a lotto coupon ? On a lotto, the more coupon you send , the bigger the chance you get the prize. That expectation is called Expected Frequency in mathematic. Mathematically, the frequency is determined by this formula :

  15. Exercise of Expected Frequency • An insurance company guessed that most of driver will have an accident 0,03 percent of a year. If the drivers are 200 people, how many drivers will have accidents ? Known : P(Accident) = 0,03 Number of drivers = 200 people Answer : P(accident) x number of drivers 0,03 x 200 = 6 drivers

  16. ANY QUESTIONS??

  17. THANK YOU

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