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Structure

QCCCE & ACRE Jozef Syktus Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence (QCCCE) Department of Environment and Resource Management. Structure. Office of Climate Change. Purpose of QCCCE. Has a whole-of-government focus.

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Structure

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  1. QCCCE & ACREJozef SyktusQueensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence (QCCCE)Department of Environment and Resource Management

  2. Structure Office of Climate Change

  3. Purpose of QCCCE • Has a whole-of-government focus. • Provides scientific advice, information and data on climate change and climate variability. • Informs government policy and assists Queensland communities better understand, forecast, prepare for and adapt to climate variability and climate change. • Provides advice to the OCC regarding practical measures to further reduce and offset the State’s greenhouse gas emissions.

  4. Climate System Research - Key area projects will address: • Climate system modelling using global and regional climate models to produce seasonal climate forecasts, simulate historical climate in Australian region and produce future projections of climate change. • Research causes and mechanisms impacting the Queensland climate variability and changes during the historical times, including climate extremes (attribution of regional climate change) and in future. • Construction of future climate change scenarios and downscaling these scenarios to produce regional and local climate change projections.

  5. Information and Knowledge Theme Key deliverables • Provide access to high quality information and knowledge systems to underpin science, decision making and policy development including: • SILO (climate database – interpolated and station) • AussieGRASS (environmental calculator – spatial simulator at 5 km grid over Australia) • The ‘Climate Monitor’ (online updates- seasonal conditions outlook)

  6. QCCCE Activities, Projects and Tools • Simulation of historical & future climate using global coupled and uncoupled GCMs (C20C, Impact of LCLU on Australian climate, AR5) • Dynamical downscaling of data from the global climate models for Queensland region (both for climate change and seasonal forecasting) • Analysis of IPCC model datasets and datasets from other modelling centres. • Attribution of historical trends and changes in Queensland region • Global and regional seasonal climate forecasts (operational since 1998 & contributing to IRI in New York) • International & national collaboration (CSIRO, BoM, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Hadley Centre, Walker Institute) • Analysis, synthesis and delivery of research to stakeholders (Regional Water Supply Strategy, 2050 review, regional climate change projections for Qld) • CSIRO/QCCCE modeling contribution to AR5 • Impact of climate extremes on the Queensland economy and society • Generation of climate change scenarios

  7. Challenges InformationDelivery • Attribution of drying trends in Queensland • Changes in TC environment in Queensland region? • Improved understanding of changes in SH circulation in recent decades and in future (ENSO, SAM, Hadley and Walker Circulation) • Improved characterization of extremes (droughts, heatwaves, bushfires, floods) • Improved regional projections QCCCE Modelling Statistical Downscaling Global CC Projections Regional CC Scenarios Dynamical Downscaling Statistical Calibration Research Research IPCC, CSIRO

  8. Rainfall Relative to Historical Records Australia– July 1992 to June 2003 Percentiles Red = Last 10 years are in the bottom 10% of all previous ten July to June year periods from 1890 AussieGrass/SILO system at QNR&M

  9. Current trends in rainfall: Western Australia 1900-2007 Eastern Australia 1900-2007 Trend in Annual Rainfall 1970-2007 50mm decrease per decade 1900 2000 Source: Bureau of Meteorology 1900 2000 50mm increase per decade

  10. Observed Trends in Hydrological Cycle 1993 to 2003 • Observed trends for the 1993 to 2003 period show strong decline in rainfall, soil moisture and runoff, mainly during summer (NDJFM) season! • These trends have occurred in spite of prolonged La Nina’s (1998 to 2001) when typically the water storage is replenished.

  11. The Challenge: Reducing uncertainty White areas are where less than 66% of the models agree in the sign of the change and stippled areas are where more than 90% of the models agree in the sign of the change Precipitation increasesvery likely in high latitudes Decreaseslikely in most subtropical land regions

  12. The current challenge.

  13. Changes in Mean Climate – summer (November – March) • Long-term average climate response: • hotter & drier for modern land cover conditions • Impact strongest in summer • near surface wind speed increase

  14. DJF temperature anomaly for the2002-2003 El Niño event Simulated temperature change oC Modern - PreEuropean Observed temperature anomaly oC (2002/03 – 1951-2000) Amplified temperature response during El Nino’s eg. 2002-2003 summer with fragmented vegetation cover

  15. Changes in Climate Extremes – annual average during 1951-2003 period Land clearing leads to an increase in climatic extremes, as shown by a) increase in frequency of hot days, (stronger impact in summer) b) increase in frequency of dry days, c) Reduced daily rainfall intensity, c) Reduced no of wet days Note: red (increase), blue (decrease), closed (significant), open (not significant) These changes coincide with areas of land cover change, and have occurred in the vicinity of Murray Darling Basin, Australia’s agricultural production zone. (a) (b) (d) (c)

  16. Standarized Precipitation Index – drought severity & duration index Drought duration index 1951-2003

  17. Hot days (tmax >35oC) - DJF (a Probability distribution functions (PDF) of percentage of hot days during summer (DJF) with tmax  35C over 1951-2003 of pre-European and modern day vegetation conditions pre-European (blue) modern-day (red)

  18. Hot days >35oC summer (NDJFM) Dry days summer (NDJFM) 2002/03 2002/03 1982/83 1982/83 NSW NSW Victoria Victoria

  19. Tropical Cyclone Numbers 10-28oS, 142-153oE Source: CBoM

  20. VWS Trend Difference O3 – SST 1961-2003 JFM (m/s per 100 yrs)

  21. Observed (ERA40) and simulated trends in Mean Sea Level Pressure

  22. Regional Impact of Multiple Forcing

  23. Observed trends in the Southern Hemisphere Polar Vortex and Blocking Frequency from Reanalysis Linear trends in Dec-May zonal winds & shift towards positive phase of SAM and positive trend in ZW3 Linear trends in Dec-May blocking Renwick, 2004

  24. How 20th Century Reanalysis can help? • Need to understand the changes in weather statistics in Qld region – attribution of drying trends e.g. Hadley cell, STR, sub-tropical jet stream • Better sampling to investigate climate extremes • Extended dataset to investigate the changes in the environment for TC formation e.g. wind shear • Improved sampling and uncertainty – blocking, storm tracks, trends in SAM

  25. Potential options for improvement • Dynamical downscaling over Australian region • CCAM variable resolution global AGCM • Use initial conditions from reanalysis and SST & sea ice to run CCAM in weather forecast mode

  26. Dynamical Downscalling CCAM C128~20kms

  27. DJF Rainfall (1951-1970) - downscalled from CSIRO T63 Mk3.5 coupled model & Obs Average from 6 member ensemble

  28. JJA Rainfall (1951-1970) - downscalled from CSIRO T63 Mk3.5 coupled model & Obs Average from 6 member ensemble

  29. DJF 2m temperature (1951-1970) - downscalled from CSIRO T63 Mk3.5 coupled model & Obs Average from 6 member ensemble

  30. JJA 2m temperature (1951-1970) - downscalled from CSIRO T63 Mk3.5 coupled model & Obs Average from 6 member ensemble

  31. Potential options for use of Reanalysis output • SILO – interpolated historical climate surfaces at 5km grid over Australian continent • Daily surfaces used to drive AussieGrass spatial simulation model over the past 120 years • Pre- 1957 very sparse data especially in west • Climatology used instead • Potential to use reanalysis data to blend with station data as an input into interpolation

  32. CLIMARC Origins • A jointly funded collaborative project known as CLIMARC - "Computerising the Australian Climate Archives" - was established in 1999 to address these issues. For 64 sites at 51 key climate locations across Australia, the project involved the data entry and quality control of more than 40,000 monthly climate records, some going back as far as 1858. The CLIMARC project was completed in 2002, and the computerised data integrated with the existing ADAM climate record.

  33. Low number of available observations prior to 1957:

  34. Climarc stations Low station density for direct spline interpolation Capital cities and some other sites already punched

  35. What did we do • Construct a base line average (contain detail e.g. coastal, & topographic gradients) 1957-1987 • Calculate anomaly (daily value for station – daily mean) • Interpolate anomaly • Add to mean • Cross-validation suggests method works ok, much better than mean (but still not good enough in the west)

  36. Example Maximum temperature observations (left) for the example date 15 January, 1925, and corresponding anomaly-interpolated surface (right). Gridded data used for Ecology and Hydrology

  37. Vapour pressure surfaces for 15 January 1900 Would gridded re-analysis data improve ? Anomaly spline interpolation Direct spline interpolation

  38. How to use results from ACRE re-analysis data • Test re-analysis grids vs Interpolated data (check for biases etc) • Use re-analysis data as a co-variate in spatial interpolation especially pre 1915 • Use re-analysis data to help identify errors • Pre 1890 – what is possible?

  39. Issues & questions • What are practical ways to increase data quantity from SH used by the reanalysis? • Pre-satellite SST & sea ice used to drive reanalysis • Representation of historical radiative forcings in the reanalysis e.g. IPCCC AR5 is releasing the comprehensive forcing history of GHG, ozone, aerosols … • Evaluation and validation of reanalysis

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