Choices and regrets in children’s counterfactual thinking

1. Choices and regrets in children’s counterfactual thinking Sarah Beck University of Birmingham Patrick Burns, Kevin Riggs, Daniel Weisberg

2. Counterfactual thinking • ‘If only I had left the house earlier, I would have caught the train...’ • ‘I should have set an alarm’ • ‘I almost made it’ • Experience of regret

3. Why look at development? • What are children’s capacities? • Understanding the process of counterfactual thinking can be easier in earlier stages of a developing system • Include more ‘indirect’ measures to tap children’s abilities (difficulties with formal language might be avoided in behavioural tasks?)

4. Children’s counterfactual thinking and emotions Development of counterfactual thinking • 3-4 shift (Harris et al, 1996; Riggs et al, 1998) • Later developments: • Complex conditionals: Rafetseder, Cristi-Vargas, Perner, 2010 • ‘What else could have happened?’ Beck et al, 2006 • Almosts (Harris, 1997, Beck & Guthrie, in press) Development of counterfactual emotions • 7 yr olds understand regret, Guttentag & Ferrell, 2004 • experience regret, • Amsel & Smalley, 2000 • 5-6 yrs Weisberg & Beck, 2010 • 6-7 yrs O’Connor et al, under sub • 10-11yrs Rafetseder & Perner, under sub

5. Why look at counterfactual emotions? • Cognition and emotion • Function of counterfactual thinking (e.g. Roese, 1997) • Why is there a developmental lag (if there is one)? • Spontaneity? • Domain general constraints (EF)? • Are we really measuring regret?

6. Experiencing Counterfactual Emotions • Simplified CFE game • Choose between 2 boxes • See contents of chosen box • Rate happiness on scale • See unchosen contents • Re-rate happiness with your box • Regret and Relief trials • 11 5-6, 10 6-7, 10 7-8, 12 adults Chosen: 2 stickers Unchosen: 8 stickers (regret) OR empty (relief) Weisberg & Beck, 2010, JECP

7. Experiencing Counterfactual Emotions • Difference score (first – second rating) • -ve = regret, +ve = relief • All groups showed regret, and no differences between groups • Only 7-8 year olds and adults experienced relief Weisberg & Beck, 2010, JECP

8. Methodological problems • The scale • Difficult to show relief if you are happy winning first sticker • Sensitivity? • Is this a result of double questioning? • Rafetseder & Perner (under submission).

9. Improvements to method:New rating scale • Children chose between two cards: win/lose tokens • Regret-Win trials (Win 2/3, could have won 8)Regret-Lose trials (Lost 2/3, could have won 3) • Relief-Win trials (Win 2/3, could have lost 3)Relief-Lose trials (Lost 2/3, could have lost 8)

10. Results • Age 4-5, n = 55, m = 5;1, r = 4;8 – 5;7, 29 males • Age 5-6, n = 52, m = 6;2, r = 5;8 – 6;7, 27 males • Age 6-7, n = 55, m = 7;3, r = 6;8 – 7;8, 31 males Regret-Win trials (Win 2/3, could have won 8) – Experienced at 5, p = .001Regret-Lose trials (Lost 2/3, could have won 3) – Experienced at 5, p < .001 Relief-Win trials (Win 2/3, could have lost 3) – Experienced at 5, p < .001Relief-Lose trials (Lost 2/3, could have lost 8) – Experienced at 7, p = .010 Weisberg & Beck, under submission

11. Are these really counterfactual emotions? • Do children need to do cf thinking to ‘pass’ our boxes task? • Choose between 2 boxes • See contents of chosen box • Rate happiness on scale • See unchosen contents • Re-rate happiness with your box “I should have picked the other box” Counterfactual “I don’t have those 8 stickers” Frustration Weisberg & Beck, in prep.

12. Are these really counterfactual emotions? • “I should have picked the other box” (counterfactual) • OR “I don’t have those 8 stickers” (frustration) • Adult literature suggests that feeling of responsibility increases likelihood of regret (Byrne, 2002; Roese & Olson, 1995; Zeelenberg et al, 1998) • Correlation between life regrets and responsibility (Zeelenberg et al, 1998)

13. Adults making ‘choices’ • Is there really a ‘choice’ in the boxes game? • Illusion of control (Langer 1975....) • People who chose a lottery ticket (based on a picture ) compared to those allocated ticket: • Less likely to resell • Value their ticket more • Even though the decision is arbitrary their judgments are influenced by the apparent ‘choice’

14. Choice, Chance and regret • Children played the boxes game in one of three conditions: • Choose which box you win • Experimenter rolls die to determine which box • Child rolls die to determine which box • If children are simply frustrated, this manipulation shouldn’t affect them • If they are thinking counterfactually, more ‘regret’ in choice condition. Weisberg & Beck, under sub.

15. Choice/Chance experiment • 5-6yrs N = 101 • 6-7yrs N = 94 • 7-8yrs N = 102

16. Choice, chance and regret • All three conditions differ from each other on both CFE • Regret/relief only differ in the choice condition • Children’s ratings at all ages are influenced by choice manipulation • Evidence for counterfactual emotions (in choice) Weisberg & Beck, in prep.

17. The child throws condition • Don’t realise it’s chance – illusion of control • if IoC might predict a difference between relief and regret trials. • Do realise it’s chance but still some opportunity for counterfactual emotions? • Adults show counterfactual emotions under some chance events (e.g. Imagine being allocated lottery ticket 245 when 246 wins?)

18. Choice and Chance in regret • Choice experiment finds evidence for change in emotion in 5-7 year olds when they make a choice about the outcome (to some extent when involved) • But not when outcome is determined by chance • Double-questioning can’t be the only problem • Indirect measures of counterfactual thought • Counterfactual emotions develop in middle childhood – involve something more than being able to answer simple conditional questions.