Book: Betting on football - a complete guide

1. BETTING ON FOOTBALL A CO M PL E T E G U I D E A useful introduction to sports betting for beginning and experienced players

2. BETTING ON FOOTBALL Colophon Betting on Football: A Complete Guide Copyright © 2019 Voetbalwedden.net No part of this publication may be reproduced by printing, photocopying, autocopying or any other means without prior written permission from the copyright holder. Author: Voetbalwedden.net / Bettingfans.com In cooperation with: University of Amsterdam/ Leroy Snippe Final editing: Julie Enthoven Cover design: B2Design Groningen Interior design: B2Design Groningen Printing guidance: B2Design Groningen Illustrations: Henk Boomstra First printing: November 2019 Printing: Pumbo.co.uk ISBN: 978-94-6345-836-8

3. Coincidence is logical - Johan Cruijff

4. Betting on football Foreword It is a beautiful spring day in May, and the final matchday of the English Premier League season is almost underway. Three teams have the chance to win the title. It’s almost 3 o’clock, the time that all of the final matches will simultaneously kick-off. Fans, players, and staff alike await in trepidation for what the afternoon’s games will bring. As well as the supporters watching on television or in the stadium, there is a group who nervously watch on for another reason – those who have placed a bet on the outcome. Will the league leader keep their composure and get the vital win? Will the favourites keep a clean sheet? Which team will have the most corners? Which player will open the scoring? A goal, corner, penalty, or wonder save can make the differen- ce between winning and losing. Can you handle the tension? 4

5. Foreword For years, betting on sport – and more specifically, football matches – has been popular around the world. Now with the possibility to live bet during matches, the popularity has only increased. The community Bettingfans.com, therefore, think it’s high time to properly explain the football betting phenomenon. In this book, we will explain the most important aspects of football betting. This book is focused on anybody who has an interest in betting on football. There are tips and explanations which will be of use to both new and experienced players. In this book, you can read, amongst other things, how to make the best possible predictions for matches and, therefore, which bets you should place. We also discuss the potential pitfalls and dangers of betting on football - if we only talked about the success that betting on football can provide, then this book would not be accurate at all. With the introduction of online bookmakers, the number of bettors has increased dramatically, and that in turn has led to an increase in gambling addicts. We see it as our duty to also discuss the risks and dangers of addiction. All in all, this book gives you a glimpse into the world of bookmakers and the bettors who try to defeat them. Don’t expect a step-by-step plan on how to win millions, because, unfortunately, it does not exist. You may earn some money in the long run, but most importantly, we hope that you enjoy betting on sports! 5

6. Betting on football Bet Responsibly Bet responsibly, and always stick to the following seven rules: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Bet for pleasure Only bet money that you can afford to lose Never loan money to bet Do not rush to make back the money that you’ve lost Do not place a bet if you have any doubts Only bet if you’re in a good mood and never under the influence of alcohol or drugs Realise that becoming rich with betting on football is only for a select few 7. Remember that this book does not offer any guarantee of success. Betting can lead to addiction and heavy losses. 6

7. Foreword 7

8. Betting on football Table of contents 10 1 C1 Betting basics 1.1 The aspects of every bet 1.2 Calculate your potential returns 1.3 Calculate your payout 11 13 13 13 2 C2 What can you bet on? 2.1 Betting on the final result 2.2 Betting on the result at half-time 2.3 Betting on goal 2.4 Betting on match events 2.5 Handicap betting 2.6 Outright and special bets 15 16 19 20 24 28 49 11 3 C3 The different ways to bet 3.1 Single bets 3.2 Accumulator bets 3.3 System betting 51 52 53 54 12 4 C4 Which bets are interesting? 4.1 Calculating key figures 4.2 Calculate if a bet is interesting or not 4.3 How does the bookmaker think? 4.4 Which types of bets are not profitable? 61 62 67 68 74 13 5 6 C5 How do you predict the outcome of a match? 5.1 The difference between sporting and betting knowledge 5.2 Twelve factors to focus on when predicting matches 83 85 85 C6 Live betting 6.1 When can you live bet? 6.2 Preparing a live bet 6.3 Four rules to follow for betting during a match 91 92 93 93 14 7 C7 Money management: how much should you bet? 7.1 The pie model 7.2 Your starting capital 7.3 The four rules for good money management 97 98 100 102 8 C8 Getting started online 8.1 Choosing your bookmaker 8.2 Online betting and safety 8.3 Your first deposit 8.4 Withdrawing your profits 105 107 107 108 109 15 9 C9 Betting with multiple bookmakers 9.1 Four reasons to bet with multiple bookmakers 9.2 Surebets 9.3 Limits 113 114 115 117

9. Table of contents 10 C10 Betting at an exchange 10.1 Backing and laying 10.2 When should you back and when should you lay? 10.3 Live betting at a betting exchange 10.4 Pre-match betting at an exchange 10.5 Advantages and disadvantages of betting by an exchange 10.6 The best betting exchanges 121 122 123 125 126 127 128 11 C11 Evaluating your bets 11.1 Tracking your bets 11.2 Calculating the averages and the totals 11.3 Five useful performance indicators to calculate 11.4 Analysing the data 131 132 135 136 138 12 C12 Well-known betting strategies 12.1 The martingale system 12.2 The parlay strategy 12.3 Choose your own path 143 145 146 148 13 C13 Becoming successful in the long run 13.1 Trust in objective information 13.2 Turn off your emotions 13.3 Never bet out of boredom or under the influence 13.4 Limit the number of bets 13.5 Know what to do if your bet fails 13.6 Don’t be fooled by coincidence 13.7 Consider your bets as investments 13.8 Learn to cope with winning and losing 13.9 Focus op de lange termijn 13.10 Look critically at tipsters 151 152 154 155 156 157 157 159 161 162 165 14 C14 Addiction 14.1 Definition of addiction 14.2 Money is not the most important aspect 14.3 Three types of bettors 14.4 How do you spot a problem bettor 14.5 The three phases of addiction 14.6 Regaining and maintaining control 14.7 Keeping track requires discipline 14.8 Decide your borders 14.9 Sometimes you have to force yourself to stop 14.10 Hulp is dichterbij dan je denkt 169 170 170 171 171 172 174 175 175 175 176 15 C15 Ending on a postive note Ending on a positive note Thanks Index 179 180 182 184 186

10. Betting on football 1 Chapter 1 Betting basics Betting on football 10

11. C.1 Betting basics 111 Chapter 1 Betting basics Strategy is not the result of planning, but the opposite: It is the starting point - Henry Mitzberg, professor of management Betting on football

12. Betting on football Chapter 1 Betting basics Betting on football matches has changed drastically throughout the years. Before the advent of the internet, you could only place bets at betting shops. You would make your bet on pen and paper and receive a print-out of your bet. If you won, you’d receive your winnings in cash. Nowadays, the betting world is a much different place. Most people place their bets online. Since 2004, it’s been possible to place a bet during a match: what is known as live betting. Despite the changes, the basics of betting have remained more or less the same. You make a prediction, and if correct, you win a certain amount of money. In this chapter, we will explain the most important aspects of every bet. 12

13. C.1 Betting basics 1.1 The aspects of every bet A bet is always placed between two parties: the player (you) and the bookmaker. 1.2 Calculate your potential returns The amount that you place on a bet is called the stake. If your bet is unsuccessful, then in most cases, you lose your stake. If your prediction is correct, then you will receive money back as your return. The amount depends on your bets’ odds. The higher the odds, the higher the potential return. If you multiply your stake with the odds, you can calculate the amount that you will receive if your bet is correct: Return = Stake * Odds Example France face Belgium at home. You think that the French will be able to defeat the Belgians, so you place €10 on Les Bleus to win. The odds for this to happen are 2.10. This means that you will receive 10 times 2.10 as your returns – which is €21. 1.3 Calculate your payout Your returns are not your payout (other words for payout would be winnings or earnings). This is because your returns include the initial stake that you paid yourself. Your payout can be calculated using the following formula: Payout = Returns – Stake Example You’ve placed a €10 bet on France for their home match against Belgium. The odds are, once again, 2.10. Your payout, or winnings, is (2.10 * 10) – 10 = €11. 13

14. Betting on football 2 Chapter 2 What can you bet on? Betting on football 14

15. C.2 What can you bet on? 152 Chapter 2 What can you bet on? Success? Very simple: Know what you are doing - Will Rogers, columnist Betting on football

16. Betting on football Chapter 2 What can you bet on? The final result, the first goal, the number of corners: you can bet on practically everything in a football game. One kind of bet can be riskier than another. In this chapter, we will provide an overview of the different bets that you can choose. Note: the rules and regulations for each type of bet can change depending on the bookmaker you choose. Make sure you always read the conditions before you confirm a bet to make sure you understand it completely. 2.1 Betting on the final result The most common type of bet is on the final result of a match. Within this category, there are several possibilities. These will be laid out in the next section. Note: With the ‘final result’, most bookmakers mean the result at the end of ‘normal time’ (the 90-minute game plus injury time). They do not count extra time or penalty shoot-outs as part of the bet. Make sure you check this before you confirm a bet on a game that can go to extra time. Example You think that Brazil are going to end up victorious in the World Cup final, so you decide to put a bet on them to win. At the end of 90 minutes, the score is 0-0, and Brazil ends up bagging the winner in extra time to lift the famous trophy. However, because at the end of normal time the score was 0-0, you lose your bet. In the eyes of the bookmaker, the game ended in a draw. 16

17. C.2 What can you bet on? 1X2 The most common bet for football matches is undoubtedly the 1X2 bet. The ‘1’ stands for a home win, the ‘X’ for a draw, and the ‘2’ for an away win. From the three possible outcomes, only one is possible. If you bet on a home victory, then you lose if the game ends tied or if the away team walks away victorious. Double chance The Double chance bet, or Double chance, is a variant of the 1X2 bet. The big differen- ce is that you choose two of the three outcomes which, if correct, mean that you win your bet. The chance of a successful bet is therefore higher, but that does mean that the odds are lower than with a 1X2 bet. Example Manchester United play at home against Norwich. Shortly before the start of the match, you hear that United are planning on resting some key players. You decide to place a double chance bet on X2. This means that you will win your bet if Norwich manages to draw or come away with all three points. If United win, then you lose your bet. Draw no bet Another variant which is very similar to the two above is the Draw No Bet, often shortened to DNB. In this variant, if the game ends in a draw, then you receive your stake back. This means, of course, that you must choose for one of the two teams to win. The odds for this type of bet are lower than a 1X2 bet but higher than for Double Chance bets. Example Let’s return to the Manchester United - Norwich game mentioned earlier. You make a Draw No Bet for Norwich to win. If Norwich leaves with all three points, your bet is successful. If Man Utd. win, then you lose your bet. If it’s a draw, then you get your stake back. 17

18. Betting on football Correct score Successfully predicting the correct final score, known as a ‘Correct Score’ bet, is very difficult. The odds for these bets are high, but that’s the case with very good reason: you only win if your prediction is completely correct. Example You think that Chile are going to beat Argentina in the final of the Copa America. You put €5 in on every exact score up until 3-2 (see table below). Your total stake is then €30. Bet Odds Stake in euros (€) 1-0 11 5 2-0 21 5 2-1 15 5 3-0 56 5 3-1 38 5 3-2 51 5 If the game ends 1-0 to Chile, your return is (5 * 11.00) = €55. Your winnings, therefore, are: (55 – 30) = €25. If the game ends 3-0, then your return Is (5*56) = €280, giving you winnings of €250. Keep in mind, though, that your bets will all lose if Chile scores 4 times, or if Lionel Messi & Co. manage to spoil Chile’s party by ending the game on top. 18

19. C.2 What can you bet on? Winning margin The winning margin bet is one with many possible outcomes. Simply put, you predict how many goals a team is going to win by. Another possibility is to bet on a score draw – a draw in which both teams score (1-1, 2-2, 3-3, etc.) 2.2 Betting on the result at half-time There are two bet possibilities for half-time bets. 1X2 The 1X2-bet is not only for full-time results. For this, the 1X2 means the same – but you are betting on which team will be winning when the half-time whistle blows. Example You expect that Wolves, who had a difficult European game in the midweek, will start well away from home against Leicester but will fade away in the second half. You therefore place a bet on X at half-time. The odds for this are a bit higher than the odds for a Leicester victory. In this way, you can manage to make a nice profit. Halftime/fulltime With a half-time/full-time bet, you combine the half-time result and the full-time result. For your bet to be successful, you need to correctly predict both results. This type of bet also works with the 1X2 principle (1 = home win, X = draw, 2 = away win). Example For the aforementioned Leicester - Wolves match, you decide to bet on X/1. Here, the X stands for a draw at half-time and the 1 stands for a Leicester victory at full time. Your bet is successful if both parts of your prediction are correct. 19

20. Betting on football 2.3 Betting on goal Both teams to score For the ‘both teams to score’ bet (or BTTS), you predict if both teams will manage to hit the back of the net or not. If you choose ‘both teams to score (YES)’, then both teams need to score at least one goal during the game. If you choose ‘both teams to score (NO)’, you’re hoping that at least one of the two sides will keep a clean sheet. For those who bet as a hobby, this is a nice bet type as games can remain exciting until the last minute. Imagine, for example, Barcelona are 5-0 up at home to Real Zaragoza. You’ve placed a bet before the game on ‘Both teams to score (NO)’, meaning you are still watching on the edge of your seat to see if Barcelona can avoid conceding a late consolation. In addition, this bet can be an interesting one if both clubs are missing key defenders. Over/under You can also bet on the number of goals in a game via the over/under bet, where you predict whether more or fewer goals will be scored than a given amount. With over/under bets, it can sometimes be unclear whether you’ve won your bet or not. If you bet on ‘over 1’, and exactly 1 goal was scored, is your bet successful? To avoid this, over/under bets deal with half-goals, where you choose over/under 0.5, 1.5, 2.5, etc. If you choose ‘under 2.5’, then you predict that 2 or fewer goals will be scored in the match. For ‘over 2.5’, at least 3 goals must be scored in the game for you to win your bet. Example Arsenal are in the hunt for a European spot but have a lower goal difference than rivals Chelsea. In their game against Southampton, then, Arsenal need to go all out to win by several goals. Because of this, you decide to bet on ‘over 3.5 goals’. You will lose your bet if 3 or fewer goals are scored in the match. 20

21. C.2 What can you bet on? Number of goals You can also bet on the exact number of goals that will be scored in a game. This type of bet is much more specific than an over/under bet, which means the odds are, therefore, higher. In addition, some bookmakers offer the option to bet on the number of goals scored in a specified range. If you, for example, place a bet on 3-4 goals to be scored in the match, then you’ll win if 3 or 4 goals are scored. The odds for this are naturally lower, but it gives you a greater chance of success. 21

22. Betting on football Half with most goals ‘Football is a game of two halves’ is a common cliché, and the difference is enough to be interesting for bettors. With the ‘half with the most goals’ bet, you can place money on the half in which more goals will be scored. Note: If there is the same amount of goals in each half, some bookmakers will return your stake, but not all will. Make sure you properly read the bookmaker’s terms and conditions before placing your bet. Goal in both halves If you think that goals will be scored in both halves, you can choose to bet on ‘goal in both halves’. With most variants, it doesn’t matter which team puts the ball in the net. The only thing that does matter is that there is a goal in both the first and second halves. There is also a variant where you can bet on one of the two teams scoring in both halves. This is most known as ‘team to score in both halves’. First team to score / Last team to score Teams who are chasing goals to begin a match will have a vastly different strategy from those who are defending a lead. With the ‘first team to score’ bet, you can predict which team will score first. On the other hand, there’s the ‘last team to score’, where you bet on the team to score the final goal of the game. With some bookmakers, you receive your stake back if no goals are scored in a game. Time of first goal For the bet ‘time of first goal’, you predict when the first goal of the game will be scored. As you might think, this is extremely difficult. In most cases, you choose the time period that the goal will be scored in – for example, from the 1st to the 15th minute. Note that that the 15th-minute counts from 14:00 to 14:59, so a goal scored at exactly 15:00 doesn’t count for this time period. If the first goal comes later in the game, or if the game ends goalless, then you also lose your bet. Anytime goalscorer With a goal scorer bet, known as ‘anytime goalscorer’, you predict which player will end up on the scoresheet. Additionally, you can also bet on whether your chosen player will score the first or last goal of the game, which naturally increases the odds. A little bit of research will do you well for this bet type – which players take penalties, and which centre back is always dangerous from corners? Note: Sometimes, you place a bet for a player to score who is actually not starting the game. Some bookmakers will then declare your bet void and give you your stake 22

23. C.2 What can you bet on? back. Other bookmakers, however, will only return your stake if the player doesn’t make an appearance in the game – in other words, if they remain on the bench the entire game. You could, therefore, be extremely unfortunate if your player comes on for a just one minute at the end of the match. Make sure you thoroughly read the bookmaker’s terms and conditions before you bet. Odd/even With an ‘odd/even’ bet, you predict whether a game will end with an even number of goals or an odd number of goals. The benefit of this bet type is, as with both teams to score, the match can remain exciting until the final minute, regardless of the score. 23

24. Betting on football 2.4 Betting on match events A nice option for lovers of alternative betting types is betting on match events. You can choose from practically every possible thing that can happen in a game. Amongst bookmakers, this type is generally known as stats betting. In this section, you can see the most important variants. Total corners Betting on corners is extremely popular. You predict the number of corners in a match with the same over/under system used for goals, although it is possible to bet on the exact number of corners in the game. Finally, you can decide to bet on the number of corners that a specific team will have in the match. Most corners With this variant, you predict which team will have the most corners. This uses the 1X2 system – 1 for the home team, 2 for the away team, and X for the situation where both teams have exactly the same number of corners. To eliminate the possibility for a ‘draw’, some bookmakers offer an Asian handicap variant. For this, you can give one of the two clubs an advantage of 0.5 corners, for example. Advantages of 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, or more are also possible. Asian handicap betting will be explained in more detail later. Total offsides If you wish to bet on the total number of offsides, then you should choose this betting type. This variant also makes use of the over/under system. You can try to predict the number of offsides for a single team or in the entire game. Ball possession If you think that one team will dominate the ball, then you can go for the possessi- on bet. This mostly works with the over/under system, where you predict whether a specific team will have more or less than a given percentage of possession. Sometimes, bookmakers also offer an Asian handicap variant, where you can give one team an advantage in possession. Player cards With this variant, you select a specific player that you think will get a card in a match. If he ends up in the referee’s notebook, you win your bet. The odds for this variant are generally quite attractive. An important benefit: it doesn’t matter if the card is yellow or red. 24

25. C.2 What can you bet on? Total cards It’s also possible to bet on the total number of cards in a match. You mostly bet on an over/under system, where you predict whether there will be more or fewer cards than a given amount. As with goals and corners, the number is given in half points. If you bet on ‘over 2.5 cards’, then you are successful if there are 3 or more cards in the game, but unsuccessful if there are 2 or less. You can also bet on this variant for a specific team, for example, over 2.5 cards for the home team. Booking points For the so-called ‘booking points’ variant, you bet on the total number of red or yellow cards in a match. You multiply this with a number of points. With practically all bookmakers, a yellow card is worth 10 points, with a red card worth 25 (make sure to check this before you bet). All of these points together are called ‘booking points’. As you can expect, this variant also makes use of the over/under system. Sending off in match You can also bet on whether there will be a red card in a match or not. It doesn’t matter which player gets his marching orders, or for which team he plays. Simply put, if there’s a red card, you win your bet. Penalty in match For this variant, you predict whether a penalty will be given or not. For you, it doesn’t matter which club gets the penalty. With some bookmakers, you can also bet on which team will receive a penalty. In all cases, it doesn’t matter if the pen is scored or not. To miss a penalty / To score a penalty This is a variant of the penalty bet type. You simply predict which team will get a penalty and if they will score it or not. To lead at anytime If you think that the underdog is going to surprisingly start well and take the lead, then you can go for the ‘lead at any time’ bet. If they take the lead at any time in the match, your bet is successful. 25

26. Betting on football 26

27. C.2 What can you bet on? 27

28. Betting on football 2.5 Handicap betting Asian handicap Once you are comfortable with the betting variants explained above, it can be interesting for you to take the step to understand Asian handicaps, often abbreviated to AH. This variant was brought from Asia in the 1990s by journalist Joe Saumarez Smith.1 With Asian Handicaps, the game has a virtual score, which begins with a virtual lead or deficit for one of the teams. This sounds complicated, but don’t worry – we will explain step by step how different Asian handicaps work. 1 Origin of Asian Handicap - Bet Asia. (z.d.). http://web.archive.org/web/20091031041314/www.betasia.com/fea- tures/how-to-win/general/5874/origin-of-asian-handicap.html 28

29. C.2 What can you bet on? AH 0 The Asian Handicap 0 bet is the same as a Draw No Bet. For this variant, you predict which team will win, and receive your stake back if the game ends in a draw. Even though the AH 0 and Draw No Bet variants are the same, the odds, interestingly enough, can change. For the same match, a DNB could have odds of 1.80, while AH 0 could have odds of 1.82. This may seem like a very small difference, but it can have a large effect in the long run. AH +1 The AH +1 bet gives a virtual lead of 1 goal to whichever team you think will win. If your team wins, then you’ll win your bet. If the game ends in a draw, you’ll also win the bet – this is because your team will be one goal ahead in the ‘virtual score’. If your team loses by 1 goal, the ‘virtual score’ is tied, which means you’ll get your stake back. For a loss of 2 or more goals, you’ll lose your bet. Example It’s a big weekend in Spanish football with Barcelona and Real Madrid facing off in El Clasico. Barca are in good form, but Real Madrid are not having their best season, but have had a few good results recently. The bookmakers expect a comfortable victory for the Catalan club. You see it differently, and put a bet on Real Madrid AH +1, giving Real a virtual 1-0 lead before the game kicks off. Result Real Madrid wins You win your bet Draw You win your bet Real Madrid lose by 1 goal You receive your stake back Real Madrid lose by 2 or more goals You lose your bet 29

30. Betting on football AH -1 The AH -1 bet works the exact opposite: your team begins with a virtual deficit of 1 goal. Your team must, therefore, win by 2 or more goals for your bet to be successful. If your team wins by a single goal, you get your stake back. If the game ends in a draw or a loss for your team, your bet is unsuccessful. Example Fiorentina face off against Genk at home in the Europa League, with Genk already eliminated. You expect Fiorentina to win, but so does the bookmaker. You decide, therefore, to take a risk, so you put a bet on Fiorentina AH -1. This means Fiorentina begins the game with a ‘virtual’ 1-0 deficit. Result Fiorentina wins by 2 or more goals You win your bet Fiorentina wins by 1 goal You get your stake back Draw You lose your bet Fiorentina lose You lose your bet AH +0.5 Even though it sounds weird, you can also play with a virtual lead of half a goal. The positive variant, AH +0.5, has the same function as a double chance bet. You win your bet if your team wins or draws. With a positive handicap, your team has a virtual lead in case the game ends in a draw. 30

31. C.2 What can you bet on? Example FC Porto is in hopeless form and welcomes champion Benfica at the weekend. You expect, however, that Porto will want to prove a point and, thus, has a chance against the stronger Benfica. You place 10 euros on Porto AH +0.5, giving them a virtual lead of 0.5 goals. Result You win your bet FC Porto wins Draw You win your bet FC Porto loses You lose your bet AH -0.5 The negative variant, AH -0.5, does exactly the opposite: you win only if your team wins the game. The negative variant, therefore, is the same as a 1X2 bet. However, there may be a small difference in odds between the two. Example Argentine super club Boca Juniors play a midweek game away against Rosario Central, a team who are currently unbeaten at home. Close to the game, you hear that Rosario Central are missing five starting players due to injury or suspension. You decide, therefore, to put some money on Boca Juniors AH -0.5, giving them a virtual deficit of 0.5 goals. Result You win your bet Boca Juniors wins Draw You lose your bet Boca Juniors loses You lose your bet 31

32. Wedden op voetbal AH +0.25 (double handicap) The AH +0.25 is somewhat more complicated than the previously mentioned variants. This bet is spread over two different bets – half of your stake goes to AH 0, and the other half to AH +0.5. How this works, exactly, is best explained using an example. Example Liverpool face Manchester United at home. Liverpool are in fantastic form, and you think they have a good chance of winning, but you want to limit your risk a little bit. Therefore, you put 10 euros on Liverpool AH +0.25, with odds of 2.00. Your stake is then divided into two: Bet 1: 5 euro on AH 0 Bet 2: 5 euro on AH +0.5 If Liverpool win the game, then both of these bets are successful, so you win (10*2 – 10) = €10. If they draw, then it works differently. The AH 0 bet means that you receive that part of your stake back. The AH +0.5 bet gives Liverpool a virtual lead of 0.5 goals, meaning this part of your bet is successful. Therefore, for the entire bet, you win (5*2 – 5) = €5. If Liverpool lose, then both of the bets are unsuccessful, meaning you will lose all of your stake. 32

33. C.2 What can you bet on? When should you play AH +0.25? Bet 1: AH 0 Bet 2: AH +0.5 Total Won or lost: Liverpool win Win (+ €5) Win (+ €5) €10 won Draw Stake back Win (+ €5) €5 won Liverpool lose Lose (- €5) Lose (- €5) €10 lost The double handicap is fairly complicated. The question you may have, then, is when should you play AH +0.25? This bet type is interesting if the underdog has a good chance of winning, but you want to balance the risk if the game ends in a draw. The benefit of AH +0.25 compared to AH +0.5 is that the odds are higher. This is because, with a draw, only half of the stake is paid out. If your team wins, then you receive more money due to the higher odds. Therefore, you lose out a bit if the game ends in a draw but win more if your chosen team wins the game. With AH 0, you simply get your money back if the game ends in a draw, so you miss out more with that one. On page 42, you can read more about the benefits of the Asian handicap compared to other betting types. 33

34. Betting on football AH -0.25 (double handicap) The AH -0.25 works the other way. Half of your stake goes to AH 0, while the other half goes to AH -0.5. Example Borussia Dortmund host Bayern München in Der Klassiker, arguably the biggest football game in the German calendar. Dortmund are in good form, but you think that Bayern will have too much for them. You bet €10 on Bayern AH -0.25, with odds of 2.00. This works as follows: Bet 1: 5 euro on AH 0 Bet 2: 5 euro on AH -0.5 If Bayern win, then you win both bets and receive (10*2 – 10) = 10 euros back as winnings. If they draw, then you get the stake for the AH 0 portion back, but for the AH -0.5 portion, Dortmund have a virtual lead of 0.5 goals, meaning this part of your bet is unsuccessful. This is known as a half loss. If Bayern lose, both parts of your bet are unsuccessful, meaning you end up Bet 1: AH 0 Bet 2: AH - 0.5 Total Won or lost: Bayern win Win (+ €5) Win (+ €5) €10 won Draw Stake back Lose (- €5) €5 lost Bayern lose Lose (- €5) Lose (- €5) €10 lost 34

35. C.2 What can you bet on? When should you play the AH -0.25? You should play the AH -0.25 if you are fairly confident of a win for your team, but want to balance the risk a bit so you don’t lose all of your stake in case of a surprise draw. AH 0, or draw no bet, would have lower odds. On the other hand, the odds will be lower than AH -0.5 or a 1X2 bet, as you won’t lose all of your stake in case of a draw. 35

36. Betting on football AH +0.75 (double handicap) Last but not least, is the double handicap AH +0.75 and its counterpart, AH -0.75. As with the previous two handicaps, the bet is split into two. Example On this weekend’s programme, Arsenal face off against Tottenham Hotspur in the North London derby. You think that Spurs have the advantage, so you put €10 on Tottenham Hotspur AH +0.75 with odds of 2.00. This works in the following way: Bet 1: 5 euros on AH +0.5 Bet 2: 5 euros on AH +1 If Spurs win or draw, then both bets are successful. Your winnings, therefore, are (10*2 – 10) = €10. If Spurs lose, it becomes a bit more complicated. If they lose by exactly 1 goal, then you’ll get half of your stake back (from the AH +1 portion – as the virtual score ends in a draw). The other half, from the AH +0.5, will be lost. Therefore, your bet ends as a ‘half loss’. If Tottenham are beaten by 2 or more goals, then you lose the entire bet. Bet 2: AH + 1 Bet 1: AH +0.5 Total Won or lost: Tottenham win Win (+ €5) Win (+ €5) € 10 won Draw Win (+ €5) Win (+ €5) €10 won Tottenham lose by 1 goal Lose (- €5) Stake back €5 lost Tottenham lose by more than 1 goal Lose (- €5) Lose (- €5) €10 lost 36

37. C.2 What can you bet on? When should you play AH +0.75? AH +0.75 is a good bet to make when you think that the underdog has a pretty good chance of managing a draw. With AH +0.75, you take a little bit less risk than you would with +0.5, as you receive some money back if you lose by 1 goal. 37

38. Betting on football AH -0.75 (double handicap) The counterpart to the AH +0.75 is best explained with the following example. Example On Saturday evening, Inter and AC Milan face off in the Milan derby. Inter have just sacked their manager, so you think that their cross-city rivals have more chance of picking up all three points. Therefore, you put €10 in on AC Milan AH -0.75 with odds of 2.00. Your bet is then split into the following two: Bet 1: 5 euro on AH -0.5 Bet 2: 5 euro on AH -1 If AC Milan have an easy evening and win by 2 or more goals, your entire bet is successful. If de Rossoneri win by 1 goal, then you only win half of your bet, the AH -0.5 part. The second half, AH -1, is a virtual draw, meaning you get your stake back. This is known as a half win. If the two teams draw, or Inter walk away victorious, then both halves of your bet are incorrect, meaning you lose your entire stake. Bet 1: AH -0.5 Bet 2: AH -1 Totaal Won or lost: AC Milan win by more than 1 goal Win (+ €5) Win (+ €5) €10 won AC Milan win by 1 goal Win (+ €5) Stake back €5 won Draw Lose (- €5) Lose (- €5) €10 lost AC Milan lose Lose (- €5) Lose (- €5) €10 lost 38

39. C.2 What can you bet on? When should you play AH -0.75? You should play the AH -0.75 to try and increase your odds. The odds for your bet are, therefore, higher, but this only counts in your favour if your team wins by 2 or more goals. Your winnings will be lower if your team only wins by 1 goal. 39

40. Betting on football Other Asian Handicap bets As well as those mentioned, there are more Asian handicap bets that you can play. For example, you can bet on AH +1.25 or AH -1.75. These work in exactly the same manner as the double handicap bets that were explained in the previous pages. On the next page, you can see an overview of all the AH bets. 40

41. C.2 What can you bet on? Asian handicap bets explained Handicap Team Result Bet Outcome Handicap Team Result Bet Outcome 0 Won Won 0 Won Won 0 0 Drawn Stake back Drawn Stake back 0 0 Lost Lost 0 Lost 0 Lost Won - 0.25 Won + 0.25 Won Won 50% stake back, 50% won +0.25 Drawn - 0.25 - 0.25 50% stake back Drawn + 0.25 Lost - 0.25 Lost + 0.25 Lost Lost - 0.50 Won Won Won + 0.50 Won +0.50 - 0.50 - 0.50 Drawn Lost Drawn + 0.50 Won Lost - 0.50 Lost Lost + 0.50 Lost Won with 2+ difference - 0.75 Won + 0.75 Won Won Won with 1 difference 50% stake back, 50% win - 0.75 - 0.75 Drawn won + 0.75 +0.75 Lost with 1 difference Drawn - 0.75 Lost + 0.75 50% stake back Lost with 2+ difference - 0.75 Lost Lost + 0.75 Lost Won with 2+ difference Won - 1.00 + 1.00 Won Won Won with 1 difference - 1.00 - 1.00 Stake back + 1.00 +1.00 Drawn Won Lost with 1 difference Stake back Drawn - 1.00 Lost + 1.00 Lost with 2+ difference Lost Lost - 1.00 Lost + 1.00 Won Won with 2+ difference - 1.25 + 1.25 Won Won Won with 1 difference - 1.25 - 1.25 50% stake back + 1.25 +1.25 Drawn Won Lost with 1 difference 50% stake back, 50% won - 1.25 Drawn Lost + 1.25 Lost with 2+ difference Lost - 1.25 Lost Lost + 1.25 41

42. Betting on football When should you play Asian handicaps? You now know how Asian handicaps work. But when should you choose to play this type of bet? There are three different situations where it is a good idea to consider playing an Asian handicap. Situation 1: You are sure of your bet and the Asian handicap odds are higher Sometimes, you can be very confident that your chosen team will win their match. Unfortunately, the bookmakers share your thoughts, meaning the odds for this are low. At this point, it’s useful to look at the Asian handicap odds. Do you expect a lot of goals? Then go for AH -1. You take more risk, but that risk is reflected in the odds. Example Real Madrid welcome Mallorca for a La Liga match. You expect the hosts to win comfortably, but the odds for a standard 1X2 home win are just 1.20. Because you expect the team from the Spanish capital to score freely, you check out the Asian handicap odds. With the Real Madrid AH -1 bet, Real have a virtual deficit of 1-0 to begin the game. The odds for this are 1.60, a much more attractive proposition. Situation 2: The match is unpredictable, and you want to limit your risk. You can also consider the opposite of the previous situation: it is hard to predict which team will win. An Asian handicap can allow you to limit your own risk. This is best explained using an example. Example Real Madrid face off against Mallorca at home. Real have an extremely important Champions League game a few days later, so will rest a bunch of key players. Mallorca, on the other hand, are fighting for a Europa League spot. The bookmakers, though, still have Real Madrid as big favourites. You see it differently, though, and expect a close victory for Real. Mallorca AH +1.75, with odds of 1.80, now becomes very interesting. You’ll win this bet if Mallorca wins, draws, or loses by only 1 goal. If Mallorca loses by 2 goals, you still get half of your stake back. You will only lose all of your stake if Mallorca lose heavily, something you don’t expect to happen. 42

43. C.2 What can you bet on? Situation 3: You want a larger range of possible bets You want to bet on a specific game, but the regular bet types don’t jump out at you. This is a situation where looking at the Asian handicap market can be interesting, as the range of bets you can make is much larger. Take, for example, the 1X2 bet. This offers just three possibilities. With Asian handicaps, you have much more options, such as the number goals the winner will win the game by. Live betting on Asian handicaps Some bookmakers offer the opportunity to make Asian handicap bets after the game has kicked off. Note, though, that the virtual score is ‘reset’ to 0-0 as soon as you bet. The goals that were scored beforehand don’t count for the outcome of your bet. Example With only 10 minutes on the clock, Real Madrid are 2-0 ahead. If you now choose to bet on Real Madrid AH -0.5, then Real need to win by 3 or more goals for your bet to be successful. 43

44. Betting on football Asian Lines The Asian line is the point where the positive and negative Asian handicap almost meet. This is best explained using an example. Example Below, you can see the odds for a Premier League match between West Ham United and Chelsea. Asian Handicap Asian Handicap Odds Odds West Ham - 1 16.00 Chelsea + 1 1.04 West Ham - 0.75 8.50 Chelsea + 0.75 1.09 West Ham - 0.5 6.10 Chelsea + 0.5 1.15 West Ham - 0.25 5.40 Chelsea + 0.25 1.17 West Ham 0 4.75 Chelsea 0 1.21 3.15 West Ham + 0.25 Chelsea - 0.25 1.38 2.48 West Ham + 0.5 Chelsea - 0.5 1.57 2.16 Chelsea - 0.75 West Ham + 0.75 1.73 1.84 Chelsea - 1 2.00 West Ham + 1 1.62 Chelsea - 1.25 2.35 West Ham + 1.25 1.49 Chelsea - 1.5 2.70 West Ham + 1.5 1.36 Chelsea - 1.75 3.25 West Ham + 1.75 1.23 Chelsea - 2 4.35 West Ham + 2 1.20 Chelsea - 2.25 4.80 West Ham + 2.25 1.18 Chelsea - 2.5 5.25 West Ham + 2.5 1.12 Chelsea - 2.75 7.00 West Ham + 2.75 1.07 Chelsea - 3 10.50 West Ham + 3 44

45. C.2 What can you bet on? The Asian line, also known simply as the line, in this case lies on AH -1 and AH +1. The difference between the odds for AH +1 for West Ham and AH -1 for Chelsea is only 0.16. The bookmakers, therefore, expect a victory for Chelsea but expect that The Hammers will be able to keep it close. What makes the Asian line interesting? Before you close a bet, it is good to check where the Asian line stands. This basically says what the bookmaker expects to happen. In the example above, you see that the bookmaker expects Chelsea to win by 1 goal, but a win by 2 or more goals seems, to them, less likely. In this manner, you create an extra option for yourself. We are always inclined to bet on the favourite, but in this case, why not on the underdog? In the example above, you see that West Ham AH +1 is just as attractive. This is especially interesting for matches where you think that the bookmaker expects too much of the favourite. If the underdog springs a surprise, then that’s very good news for you. On the other hand, if they lose by just 1 goal, you get (in this example at least) your stake back 45

46. Betting on football Asian handicap total goals Some bookmakers offer the possibility to bet on the total number of goals in a game via an Asian handicap. This bet type is similar to over/under bets, but the big advanta- ge of the Asian handicap is that you can receive some, or all, of your stake back. The odds can change quite a bit between the two different forms, so it’s always a good idea to compare them before placing your bet. Example Manchester City and Chelsea face off this weekend, with both teams coming to the game with attacking intentions. You choose for an Asian handicap bet on ‘over 2.75 goals’ with odds of 1.75. Your stake is 10 euro. You bet is, thus, split into the following: Bet 1: 5 euro on ‘over 2.5 goals’ with odds of 1.75 Bet 2: 5 euro on ‘over 3 goals’ with odds of 1.75 In the end, Man City win the game 2-1. Your first bet is, therefore, good – there were more than 2.5 goals scored in the game. You win, therefore, (5*1.75 – 5) = €3.75 and get €8.75 back in total (winnings + stake). For the second part of your bet, you get your stake back, giving you a ‘half-win’ in total. Example Newcastle host Liverpool. Newcastle would like to limit the damage, while Liverpool already have one eye on their important European game in midweek. You go for the Asian handicap ‘under 2.75 goals’ with odds of 2.15. Your bet of €20 is split over the following two bets: Bet 1: €10 on ‘under 2.5 goals’ with odds of 2.15 Bet 2: €10 on ‘under 3 goals’ with odds of 2.15 Liverpool come away comfortable 3-0 victors. The first part of your bet, under 2.5 goals, is thus, incorrect. You lose that part of your stake. The second part of your bet gives you your stake back, meaning the total bet is a ‘half-loss’. In total, you get €10 back from your €20 bet. In the following table, you can see all possible outcomes from the Asian handicap bets on total goals. 46

47. C.2 What can you bet on? Asian handicap in total goals Asian Handicap Goals Bet Asian Handicap Goals Bet 0 - 0.50 Lost 0 Won Over 0.75 Under 0.75 goals 50% stake back, 50% win 1 - 0.50 goals 1 50% stake back 2 or more - 0.50 Won 2 or more Lost 0 - 0.50 Won 0 Lost Over 1 goal Under 1 1 - 0.50 goal Stake back 1 Stake back 2 or more - 0.50 Lost 2 or more Won 0 - 0.50 Lost 0 Won Over 1.25 Under 1.25 goals 50% stake back, 50% win 50% stake back, 50% win 1 - 0.50 goals 1 2 or more - 0.50 Won 2 or more Lost 1 or less - 0.50 Won 1 or less Lost Over 1.75 goal Under 1.75 50% stake back, 50% win 2 - 0.50 goal 50% stake back 2 3 or more - 0.50 Lost 3 or more Won 1 of minder - 0.50 Lost 1 or less Won Over 2 Under 2 goals 2 - 0.50 goals Stake back 2 Stake back 3 or more - 0.50 Won 3 or more Lost 1 or less - 0.50 Won 1 or less Lost Over 2.25 goal Under 2.25 50% stake back, 50% win 2 - 0.50 goal 2 50% stake back 3 or more - 0.50 Lost 3 or more Won - 0.50 2 or less Lost 2 or less Won Over 2.75 Under 2.75 goals 50% stake back, 50% win - 0.50 goals 3 3 50% stake back 4 or more - 0.50 Won 4 or more Lost 47

48. Betting on football European handicap The ‘European handicap’ bet, known as 3W or ‘three-way’ handicap, works in a similar way to the Asian handicap, with a virtual lead or deficit for a given team. The differen- ce, however, is that with a European handicap, you never get your stake back. A half-win or half-loss is therefore not possible – you either win or lose everything. Example Besiktas face off against rivals Galatasaray. The bookmakers expect an easy evening for Besiktas, but you think that Galatasaray can pick up a point. You decide, then, to bet on a European handicap +2 for Galatasaray. If Galatasaray win or draw, you will win your bet. But seeing as they begin with a 2-0 virtual lead, it’s alright for you if they lose – but only if it’s by a single goal. If they lose by 2 or more, then your bet is incorrect, and you lose your stake. European handicap and draws For a European handicap, you can also bet on a draw. This is much riskier, as shown in the following example. Example For the game between Southampton and Crystal Palace, you decide to bet on ‘Southampton European handicap -1: X’. Your bet is only successful if the Saints win by a single goal. Any other result and your bet is unsuccessful. 48

49. C.2 What can you bet on? 2.6 Outright and special bets Often, bookmakers offer bets which are not about a specific bet but take place throughout the season. These are known as outrights. An example of an outright bet is a head to head bet. Who will score more goals in 2018/19: Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo? Another variant is the season bet. You bet on which team will finish higher in the league standings, such as Everton or Wolves. You can also bet on which team will become champion, and which teams will be promoted or relegated. Furthermore, you can bet on the top scorer of the competition, or which manager will be the first to be sacked. In addition, there are transfer bets. For this type, you bet on potential transfers or managerial moves. This one is most interesting during the summer or January transfer window. During tournaments with a knock-out system, the question is often about which team will qualify for the next round. Will Manchester United make it to the Quarter Final of the Champions League, or will Bayern? Note: These ‘to qualify’ bets are often for matches played over 2 legs. The result of the first game has a massive influence on the end result. Make sure to know the tournament rules – in European competition, the away goal rule is in place, but this isn’t the case in South America. 49

50. Betting on football 3 Chapter 3 The different ways to bet 50